Colorado gubernatorial election, 2010
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County results
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Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found. The 2010 Colorado gubernatorial election was held on Tuesday, November 2, 2010 to elect the Governor of Colorado, who would serve a four-year term that began in January 2011. John Hickenlooper won the race with over 50% of the vote.[1] Incumbent Democratic Governor Bill Ritter announced that he would not run for re-election in 2010.[2] Dan Maes claimed the Republican nomination in the primary with 50.6% of the vote and a 1.3% margin over rival Scott McInnis. In claiming victory, Maes called on Constitution Party candidate and former Republican Congressman Tom Tancredo to "stop your campaign tonight." John Hickenlooper was unopposed for the Democratic nomination.
Democratic primary
Announced
Declined
Republican primary
Candidates
Results
Republican primary results[9] |
Party |
Candidate |
Votes |
% |
|
Republican |
Dan Maes |
196,283 |
50.7 |
|
Republican |
Scott McInnis |
190,907 |
49.3 |
Total votes |
387,253 |
100 |
Declined
Pre-primary polling and developments
While a head-to-head polling matchup of McInnis against Maes by Survey USA was not reported for July 2010, the McInnis plagiarism story and the entry of Tom Tancredo into the race led to a changed landscape in advance of the August 10 Republican primary. "When asked who would be the 'strongest Republican gubernatorial candidate,' ... Tancredo easily led the pack of six choices with 29 percent. McInnis followed with 19 percent, and ... Maes, had 13 percent. Another 17 percent ... were not sure", in the Survey USA poll commissioned by the Denver Post and 9News. While Tancredo's run was on the Constitution Party ticket, he spoke as a Republican in responding to the poll results. "Tancredo, originally a McInnis supporter, has said that both Maes and McInnis should 'both eventually drop out' of the race even if it's after one wins the primary. 'Neither can win the general election,' he said. Tancredo said he was 'surprised and flattered' by the poll results. 'I want us as a party to get this governor's seat,' he said. 'If I can do it, believe me, I will.'"[13] Tancredo was delivered a "message, signed by tea party, 9-12 Project and constitutionalist groups, [which] read in part: 'Withdraw your ultimatum, stay in the Republican Party, let the process play out for the governor's race within the rules already set forth, and continue to help us improve this party, its candidates, and the process — in other words to trust and respect the newly awakened, energized and informed voters of Colorado.'"[14] As of late July, both McInnis and Maes had rejected Tancredo's ultimatum that they withdraw before or after the primary. And "political observers — and even state GOP chairman Dick Wadhams — were already predicting [Tancredo]'s entry into the race sounded the death knell for the party's gubernatorial bid and may cause problems for state legislative races. 'It's difficult if not impossible to beat ... Hickenlooper with Tancredo in the race,' said Wadhams, noting that Tancredo will siphon just enough votes away from the GOP nominee to give Hickenlooper a win."[15] Post-primary polling (see below), however, has shown growing support for Tancredo with Maes in danger of receiving a vote share in the single digits.
McInnis vs. Maes
Libertarian Party
Candidates
Results
Libertarian primary results[9] |
Party |
Candidate |
Votes |
% |
|
Libertarian |
Jaimes Brown |
1,423 |
63.9 |
|
Libertarian |
Dan Sallis |
803 |
36.1 |
Total votes |
2,226 |
100 |
American Constitution Party
Confirmed
General election
Candidates
- Tom Tancredo (ACP)
- For Lt. Governor: Former State Rep. Pat Miller
- Jaimes Brown (L)
- For Lt. Governor: Ken Wyble
- Jason R. Clark (UAF)
- Paul Fiorino (I)
- For Lt. Governor: Heather McKibbin
- John Hickenlooper (D)
- Dan Maes (R)
- For Lt. Governor: Former State Rep. Tambor Williams
Polling and predictions
Poll source |
Dates administered |
John Hickenlooper (D) |
Dan Maes (R) |
Tom Tancredo (ACP) |
Public Policy Polling |
October 30–31, 2010 |
47% |
8% |
43% |
Rasmussen Reports |
October 29, 2010 |
49% |
5% |
42% |
Public Policy Polling |
October 21–23, 2010 |
47% |
5% |
44% |
Magellan Strategies |
October 22, 2010 |
44% |
9% |
43% |
Rasmussen Reports |
October 15, 2010 |
42% |
12% |
38% |
Rasmussen Reports |
October 3, 2010 |
43% |
16% |
35% |
Public Policy Polling |
September 30-October 2, 2010 |
47% |
13% |
33% |
Survey USA |
September 28–30, 2010 |
46% |
15% |
34% |
Fox News |
September 25, 2010 |
44% |
15% |
34% |
CNN/Time |
September 17–21, 2010 |
47% |
21% |
29% |
Rasmussen Reports |
September 14, 2010 |
46% |
21% |
25% |
Rasmussen Reports |
August 29, 2010 |
36% |
24% |
14% |
Ipsos/Reuters |
August 20–22, 2010 |
41% |
33% |
16% |
45% |
45% |
–– |
Rasmussen Reports |
August 11, 2010 |
43% |
31% |
18% |
Public Policy Polling |
August 7–8, 2010 |
48% |
23% |
22% |
50% |
38% |
–– |
Rasmussen Reports |
August 2, 2010 |
42% |
27% |
24% |
Survey USA |
July 27–29, 2010 |
46% |
24% |
24% |
50% |
41% |
–– |
Rasmussen Reports |
July 15, 2010 |
46% |
43% |
–– |
Survey USA |
June 15–17, 2010 |
44% |
45% |
–– |
Rasmussen Reports |
June 14, 2010 |
41% |
41% |
–– |
Predictions
General election results
American Constitution Party gets major party status
A result of Tancredo's ACP candidacy and Maes' political implosion was the party's legal elevation from minor to major party status.
Under state law, the American Constitution Party's vote share in the 2010 gubernatorial election elevated the party from minor to major party status. Any party that earns 10% or more of the votes cast for governor is a "major party." Major party status gives the party a place at or near the top of the ballot in the 2014 gubernatorial election. However, because of the additional organizational, financial, and compliance requirements triggered by major party status, ACP leaders have been ambivalent about the change.[26][27]
The Colorado Republican Party maintained its major party status, as Maes won 11% of the vote.
See also
References
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- ↑ "Poll shows slipping support for GOP gubernatorial candidate Scott McInnis", by Karen E. Crummy, The Denver Post, updated 2010-07-17 1:37:13 AM MDT. Retrieved October 18, 2010.
- ↑ "Tancredo pulls third-party trigger", by David Caterese, politico.com, 7/26/10 12:01 PM EDT. Retrieved 2010-07-27.
- ↑ "Tancredo entering governor's race as third-party candidate, splintering GOP", by Karen E. Crummy, The Denver Post, updated 27 July 2010 05:57:27 AM MDT. Retrieved 2010-07-27.
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- ↑ http://www.sos.state.co.us/pubs/electionresults2010/general/ColoradoReport.html
- ↑ Steven K. Paulson, "ACP Not Relishing Role As Colorado Major Party", Associated Press; May 8, 2011.
- ↑ Patricia Calhoun, "American Constitution Party faces major headaches as a major Colorado party", Westword Magazine; 3/6/2012.
External links
- Debate
- Official campaign websites
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