Muslim population growth

World Muslim population by percentage (Pew Research Center, 2014)

Muslim population growth refers to the topic of population growth of the global Muslim community. In 2006, countries with a Muslim majority had an average population growth rate of 1.8% per year (when weighted by percentage Muslim and population size). This compares with a world population growth rate of 1.02% per year. As of 2011, it is predicted that the world's Muslim population will grow twice as fast as non-Muslims over the next 20 years. By 2030, Muslims will make up more than a quarter of the global population. If current trends continue, it is predicted by the year 2100 that about 1% more of the world's population will be Muslim (35%) than Christian (34%).

Globally, Muslims have the highest fertility rate, an average of 3.1 children per woman – well above replacement level (2.1), the minimum typically needed to maintain a stable population. Christians are second, at 2.7 children per woman. Hindu fertility (2.4) is similar to the global average (2.5). Worldwide, Jewish fertility (2.3 children per woman) also is above replacement level. All the other groups have fertility levels too low to sustain their populations and would require converts to grow or maintain their size: indigenous and tribal religions (1.8 children per woman), other religions (1.7), the unaffiliated (1.7) and Buddhists (1.6).

According to the World Christian Encyclopedia, published in 2001, the fastest-growing branch of Islam is Ahmadiyya. It is often reported from other various sources in 2010, including the German domestic intelligence service, that Salafism is the fastest-growing Islamic movement in the world.

Politics

Estimating Muslim population growth is related to contentious political issues. Some Islamic organizations have accused American demographers of releasing falsely low population numbers of Muslims in the United States to justify the marginalization of Muslims.

By region

World

• According to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, the World Christian Database as of 2007 estimated the six fastest-growing religions of the world to be Islam (1.84%), the Bahá'í Faith (1.7%), Sikhism (1.62%), Jainism (1.57%), Hinduism (1.52%), and Christianity (1.32%). High birth rates were cited as the reason for the growth. However, according to others, including the Guinness World Records, Islam is the world's fastest-growing religion by number of conversions each year.
• Monsignor Vittorio Formenti, who compiles the Vatican's yearbook, said in an interview with the Vatican newspaper L'Osservatore Romano that "For the first time in history, we are no longer at the top: Muslims have overtaken us". He said that Catholics accounted for 17.4 percent of the world population—a stable percentage—while Muslims were at 19.2 percent. "It is true that while Muslim families, as is well known, continue to make a lot of children, Christian ones on the contrary tend to have fewer and fewer," the monsignor said.

Asia

Islam is currently the largest religion in Asia. According to the Pew Research Center, nearly three-in-ten people living in the Asia-Pacific region in 2030 (27.3%) will be Muslim, up from about a quarter in 2010 (24.8%) and roughly a fifth in 1990 (21.6%).

India

Islam is the fastest-growing religion in India. The ratio of young children (age 0–6) to the total population is also significantly higher among Muslims than Hindus in India. Demographers have put forward several factors behind high birthrates among Muslims in India. Sociologists point out that religious factors can explain high Muslim birthrates. Surveys indicate that Muslims in India have been relatively far less willing to adopt family planning measures and that Indian Muslim girls get married at a much younger age compared to non-Muslim girls. According to Paul Kurtz, Muslims in India are much more resistant to modern contraceptive measures compared to other Indians and, as a consequence, the decline in fertility rate among non-Muslim women is much higher compared to that of Muslim women. According to a 2006 committee appointed by the Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, if the current trend continues, by the end of the 21st century India's Muslim population will reach 320 to 340 million people (or 18-19% of India's total projected population). Islam is the second-largest religion in India, making up 14.88% of the country's population with about 180 million adherents (2011 census). India has the second largest population of Muslims, after Indonesia.

China

In China, Muslim population growth was 2.7% during 1964-1982, compared to 2.1% for the population as the next two decades from 2011. Pew Research Center projects a slowing down of Muslim population growth in China than in previous years, with Muslim women in China having a 1.7 fertility rate. Many Hui Muslims voluntarily limit themselves to one child in China since their Imams preach to them about the benefits of population control. The amount of children, in different areas, people are allowed to have varies between one and three children. Chinese family planning policy allows minorities, including Muslims, to have up to two children in urban areas, and three to four children in rural areas.

Europe

See also: Islam in Europe

Islam is the fastest-growing religion in Europe. According to the Pew Research Center, the Muslim population in Europe (excluding Turkey) was about 30 million in 1990, 44 million in 2010 and is expected to increase to 58 million by 2030; the Muslim share of the population increased from 4.1% in 1990 to 6% in 2010 and will continue to increase over the next 40 years, reaching 10% in 2050. There were approximately 19 million Muslims in the European Union in 2010 or about (3.8%).

Data for the rates of growth of Islam in Europe reveal that the growing number of Muslims is due primarily to immigration and higher birth rates. Muslim women today have an average of 2.2 children compared to an estimated average of 1.5 children for non-Muslim women in Europe. While the birth rate for Muslims in Europe is expected to decline over the next two decades, it will remain slightly higher than in the non-Muslim population, except for Dutch-Turks, who have a lower birthrate (1.7) than the native Dutch population (1.8).

Based on the current growth rate of Islam in Europe, in 2030, Muslims are projected to make up more than 10% of the total population in 10 European countries: Kosovo (93.5%), Albania (83.2%), Bosnia-Herzegovina (42.7%), Republic of Macedonia (40.3%), Montenegro (21.5%), Bulgaria (15.7%), Russia (14.4%), Georgia (11.5%), France (10.3%) and Belgium (10.2%). There are around 100,000 Muslim converts in the UK. France has seen conversions to the Islamic faith double in the past quarter century. In France there are an estimated 100,000 Muslim converts, compared with about 50,000 in 1986.

By denomination

The following table lists historical growth rates by schools and branches in Islam as published by the previous two editions of the World Christian Encyclopedia.

Branches/Schools	Growth rate (%) in 1982	Growth rate (%) in 2001
Sunni	-	-
Hanafi	2.77	2.07
Shafi	2.89	2.20
Maliki	2.36	2.00
Hanbali	2.73	2.20
Shia	-	-
Twelver	2.78	2.23
Isma'ili	3.35	2.70
Zaydi	2.75	2.30
Alawites	2.75	-
Ahmadi	4.18	3.25
Khariji	2.70	2.10
Wahhabi	-	1.37

Conversion

Sources show the growth of Islam occurs mainly due to reproduction. Only 0.28% (3,220,000 people) of the expected Muslim population growth (1,161,780,000) in the period of 2010-2050 would be due to conversions; 99.72% would be due to a high birth rate among Muslims. In the period 1990–2000, approximately 12.5 million more people converted to Islam than to Christianity. According to The New York Times, an estimated 25 percent of American Muslims are converts. In Britain, around 6,000 people convert to Islam per year and according to a June 2000 article in the British Muslims Monthly Survey the bulk of new Muslim converts in Britain were women. According to NBC news report, every year around 20,000 people in U.S.A convert to Islam. Studies estimate significantly more people have converted from Islam to Christianity in the 21st century than at any other point in Islamic history. A 2015 study found that up to 10.2 million Muslim converted to Christianity. The increasingly large Ex-Muslim communities in the Western world that adhere to no religion have also been well documented.

See also

• Cousin marriage in the Middle East
• Christian population growth
• Eurabia
• Fastest Growing Religion
• Islam in Europe
• Islamic Missionary Activity
• List of converts to Islam
• List of countries by Muslim population
• Religious views on birth control