Romanian legislative election, 2016

Romanian legislative election, 2016

No later than November 2016
308 deputies 134 senators
150x150px 150x150px Leader Liviu Dragnea Alina Gorghiu Hunor Kelemen Party PSD PNL UDMR Leader since 22 July 2015 18 December 2014 26 February 2011 Leader's seat D – Teleorman D – Bucharest D – Harghita Last election 59 S, 33.52% 150 D, 36.41% 50 S, 28.41% 100 D, 24.27% 9 S, 5.11% 18 D, 4.37%
Incumbent Prime Minister Dacian Cioloș Ind.

Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Romania no later than the end of November 2016. Elections will be held after new rules, following the amendment of electoral legislation during 2015. The legislation provides the return to election by list, last used in the 2004 elections. The new electoral legislation provides a norm of representation for deputies of 73,000 inhabitants and 168,000 inhabitants for senators, which will lead to a decrease in the number of MPs. 466 parliamentary seats (308 deputies, 18 minority deputies, and 134 senators) will be contested, versus 588 parliamentarians who had been elected in 2012. The diaspora will be further represented by four deputies and two senators, a premiere consisting in the introduction of vote-by-mail for this type of elections.

New electoral system

The legislative election of 2016 will unfold differently compared to 2012 and 2008. On 24 February 2015, the Electoral Code Commission decided in principle for the future electoral law to return to party-list proportional representation, thereby relinquishing the first-past-the-post (uninominal) voting system as introduced in 2008. The option of turning the Parliament of Romania into a perfectly bicameral parliament, with some 300 deputies being elected on a closed list and 100 senators being elected by a single-round uninominal majority vote, had been discussed for years and even agreed upon between the ruling Social Democratic Party and the opposition. The new electoral law promulgated by President Klaus Iohannis on 20 July 2015 however didn't retain uninominal constituencies for the Senate. Closely sticking to the commission's recommendations, the new electoral law completely returns to party-list proportional representation.

With a representation norm of one deputy per 73,000 inhabitants and one senator per 168,000 inhabitants, a total of 308 deputies will be elected, to which are added the 18 deputies of minorities, 134 senators and 6 MPs of diaspora (two senators and four deputies). All in all this totals to a number of 466 MPs, five fewer than in 2008 and 122 fewer than in 2012. While for single-party lists the electoral threshold is kept at 5%, a higher threshold of 8–10% is introduced for electoral alliances. For the first time the Romanian electors residing abroad will be able to cast their vote via mail, in a reaction to the flawed procedures at the 2014 presidential election.

Parties

Although the image of Victor Ponta and his Social Democratic Party (PSD) was badly affected by corruption scandals and a recent wave of protests, the party remains one of the two major parties in Romania. Besides the PSD, the Romanian party system however went through a number of substantial regroupings.

Major regroupings

Leading center-left Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the Centre Right Alliance (ACD) of liberal Conservative Party (PC) and center-right National Liberal Party (PNL) contested the 2012 legislative election under the joint ticket of the Social Liberal Union (USL). They won an absolute majority to form a government headed by prime minister Victor Ponta.

During the legislature, PC and PNL however increasingly distanced themselves from each other with the PC – despite its name – embracing social liberalism. In turn, the PNL dropped out of the coalition government in February 2014. Formerly affiliated with the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE), the party applied for membership in the European People's Party (EPP) to be later admitted a full member. Increasingly orienting to the right, the PNL suffered a split, as the party's liberal faction around Călin Popescu-Tăriceanu left to become the Liberal Reformist Party (PLR) which eventually merged with the PC to form the Romanian Alliance of Liberals and Democrats, eponymous with the European party.

Subsequently, the PNL joined forces with the Democratic Liberal Party (PDL), which itself had suffered a split, when Traian Băsescu left to form the new party People's Movement. Ahead of a complete merger, PDL and PNL formed the Christian Liberal Alliance, which successfully fielded Klaus Iohannis in the November 2014 presidential election. The two parties fully merged on 17 November 2014 under the name of National Liberal Party (PNL).

In June 2015, left-wing National Union for the Progress of Romania (UNPR) which before had polled in the Centre Left Alliance with the Social Democrats, absorbed the remainders of dissolved populist PP-DD, after that party's founder Dan Diaconescu was convicted for extortion. UNPR president Gabriel Oprea advanced the variant of launching an independent list in the legislative election as one of two options. While aiming for 10% at the upcoming national vote, the party also reaffirmed its commitment to the Centre Left Alliance with the PSD.

Further developments

Conservative MEP Maria Grapini accused PC of betrayal after fusion with PLR. The People's Movement Party, formed around former President Traian Băsescu after splitting from PDL, was rocked by the arrest of its leader Elena Udrea in Microsoft licensing corruption scandal and is losing popularity.

A new nationalist party, United Romania Party (PRU), was founded by MP Bogdan Diaconu on 17 August 2014 and became official by court decision on 17 February 2015.

The largest political formation of an ethnic minority, the Democratic Union of Hungarians in Romania, has a chance to be represented in the parliament.

Parties to be entered in the election and their leaders¹

PSD (Liviu Dragnea)	PV (Constantin Damov)	PNL (Alina Gorghiu, Vasile Blaga)
UNPR (Gabriel Oprea)	PNȚCD (Aurelian Pavelescu)	UDMR (Hunor Kelemen)
PSRO (Mircea Geoană)		ALDE (Daniel Constantin, Călin Popescu-Tăriceanu)
PRU (Bogdan Diaconu)		M10 (Monica Macovei)
		MP (Traian Băsescu)
		PRM (Emil Străinu)
		PER (Dănuț Pop)

¹On the left side are displayed left-wing parties, in center are displayed centrist parties, and on the right side are displayed right-wing parties.

Opinion polls

  Parties that surpass the parliamentary threshold of 5%

  Parties that don't surpass the parliamentary threshold of 5%

Poll source	Date	Sample size	PNL	PDL	PLR	PSD–UNPR–PC			PPDD	UDMR	PRM	PMP	PNȚCD	M10	PRU	Other	Lead
INSCOP	1–6 Jul 2014	1,055	19.3%	11.9%		42.3%			2.8%	5.4%	3.2%	7.5%	1.2%				13.7%
CCSCC	20–26 Aug 2014	1,248	34%		5%	38%			4%	6%	2%	7%					4%
INSCOP	30 Aug–4 Sep 2014	1,058	31.5%		4.4%	42.6%			3.4%	5.8%	3.3%	7.1%	0.8%				10.1%
INSCOP	27 Nov–2 Dec 2014	1,076	41.7%		3.3%	38.8%			2.3%	5.1%	1.2%	5.6%	0.6%				2.9%
Poll source	Date	Sample size	PNL		PLR	PSD–UNPR–PC			PPDD	UDMR	PRM	PMP	PNȚCD	M10	PRU	Other	Lead
CSOP	13–18 Dec 2014	1,044	47%			34%			2%	6%	3%	3%					13%
CSOP	27 Jan–4 Feb 2015	1,036	49%			32%			2%	6%	2%	3%					17%
INSCOP	5–10 Feb 2015	1,065	44.2%		3.3%	37.4%			1.4%	5%	1.1%	4%	0.9%				6.8%
Avangarde	18–26 Feb 2015	900	40%		5%	37%			3%	5%	4%	3%					3%
CSOP	3–10 Mar 2015	1,007	49%			31%			2%	7%	2%	2%					18%
CSCI	24–28 Mar 2015	1,073	39%		6%	37%			2%	5%		2%		3%			2%
ARP	30 Mar–3 Apr 2015	1,100	44%		3%	34%			2%	5%	2.5%	2.5%	1%				10%
CSCI	20–24 Apr 2015	1,090	42%		5%	39%			1%	4%		1%		3%			3%
Avangarde	21–29 Apr 2015	950	43%		5%	40%			1%	4%	1%	2%		2%			3%
INSCOP	23–30 Apr 2015	1,085	44.7%		2.2%	39.1%			1%	5.2%	2%	2.8%	1%				5.6%
Poll source	Date	Sample size	PNL		ALDE (PLR+PC)		PSD	UNPR (incl. PP–DD)		UDMR	PRM	MP	PNȚCD	M10	PRU	Other	Lead
INSCOP	9–14 Jul 2015	1,075	44.5%		3%		37.1%			5.1%	2.1%	2.4%	1.2%	2.3%		2.3%	7.4%
CSCI	10–17 Aug 2015	1,021	41%		3%		37%	2%		5%		3%		5%	3%	1%	4%
Avangarde	1–7 Sep 2015	1,000	32%		6%		34%	7%			2%	4%	2%	5%		8%	2%
INSCOP	10–15 Sep 2015	1,085	42%		2.6%		35%	5.1%		5%	1.3%	2.5%	1%	2%	1%	2.5%	7%
INSCOP	26 Nov–2 Dec 2015	1,071	40.1%		4%		36.3%	2.6%		5.2%	1.1%	4.4%	1%	2.4%		2.9%	3.8%
ARP	2–6 Dec 2015	950	35%		6.5%		34%	2.5%		4%	5%	7.5%	2.5%	1.5%		1.5%	1%
CIADO	1–5 Feb 2016	1,157	35.45%		4.57%		36.42%									23.56%	0.97%
INSCOP	21–28 Mar 2016	1,068	37.2%		5.3%		39.2%			5%	1%	5.1%	0.4%	2.2%	1.2%	3.4%	2%