United States presidential election in North Carolina, 2004

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Main article: United States presidential election, 2004
United States presidential election in North Carolina, 2004
← 2000 November 2, 2004 2008 →
  George-W-Bush.jpeg John F. Kerry.jpg
Nominee George W. Bush John Kerry
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Texas Massachusetts
Running mate Dick Cheney John Edwards
Electoral vote 15 0
Popular vote 1,961,166 1,525,849
Percentage 56.02% 43.58%
415px
County Results
  Kerry—60-70%
  Kerry—50-60%
  Kerry—<50%
  Bush—<50%
  Bush—50-60%
  Bush—60-70%
  Bush—70-80%
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

 Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in North Carolina took place on November 2, 2004 throughout all 50 states and D.C., which was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 15 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.

North Carolina was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 12.4% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or otherwise considered as a red state. NC was the home state of John Edwards, Democratic nominee for vice-president, who was then representing the state in the United States Senate. This was not enough for Democrats to break Republican success in this state since the 1976 presidential election of Jimmy Carter.

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found. There were 12 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[1]

  1. D.C. Political Report: Likely Republican
  2. Associated Press: Leans Bush
  3. CNN: Bush
  4. Cook Political Report: Leans Republican
  5. Newsweek: Leans Bush
  6. New York Times: Solid Bush
  7. Rasmussen Reports: Bush
  8. Research 2000: Leans Bush
  9. Washington Post: Bush
  10. Washington Times: Solid Bush
  11. Zogby International: Bush
  12. Washington Dispatch: Bush

Polling

Bush won every single pre-election poll. The final 3 poll average showed Bush leading 52% to 44%.[2]

Fundraising

Bush raised $4,465,160.[3] Kerry raised $2,049,794.[4]

Advertising and visits

Neither campaign advertised or visited the state during the fall campaign.[5][6]

Analysis

John Edwards failed to make his home state competitive in the general election. The main reason why is that Bush's approval rating was consistently above 50%. Matthew Dowd, chief strategist for the Bush campaign, says the findings indicate that the Tar Heel state remains safely Republican in the presidential election.[7] Polls showed Kerry had a strong 44% of voters in NC, but Bush consistently polled between 49%–54% and his approval ratings remained in the lower 50% range.[8][9] In the end, Edwards didn't even have any effect on North Carolina's results, as they were identical to the 2000 results.

Bush won a majority of the 100 counties and congressional districts. The only region in the state that Kerry dominated in was the Northeast part of the state, the location of North Carolina's 1st congressional district. The only significant improvement Kerry–Edwards made on Al Gore in 2000 was winning heavy populated Mecklenburg County.

Results

United States presidential election in North Carolina, 2004
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican George W. Bush Richard Cheney 1,961,166 56.02% 15
Democratic John Kerry John Edwards 1,525,849 43.58% 0
Libertarian Michael Badnarik Richard Campagna 11,731 0.34% 0
Totals - 100% 15
Voter turnout (Voting Age population) 55.4%

Results breakdown

By county

County Kerry Votes Bush Votes Others Votes
Alamance 38.2% 20,686 61.5% 33,302 0.3% 187
Alexander 29.6% 4,618 70.1% 10,928 0.3% 54
Alleghany 39.8% 1,922 59.7% 2,883 0.5% 22
Anson 58.7% 5,413 41.1% 3,796 0.2% 16
Ashe 37.9% 4,477 61.7% 7,292 0.5% 54
Avery 24.0% 1,805 75.5% 5,678 0.5% 41
Beaufort 36.0% 7,025 63.7% 12,432 0.3% 65
Bertie 61.5% 4,938 38.1% 3,057 0.5% 37
Bladen 49.6% 6,109 50.1% 6,174 0.2% 30
Brunswick 39.2% 14,903 60.4% 22,925 0.4% 149
Buncombe 49.4% 51,868 50.0% 52,491 0.6% 654
Burke 38.1% 11,728 61.5% 18,922 0.4% 112
Cabarrus 32.6% 19,803 67.0% 40,780 0.4% 241
Caldwell 31.9% 9,999 67.6% 21,186 0.5% 163
Camden 35.0% 1,339 64.8% 2,480 0.3% 11
Carteret 30.2% 7,732 69.3% 17,716 0.5% 127
Caswell 48.1% 4,539 51.6% 4,868 0.3% 30
Catawba 32.1% 18,858 67.5% 39,602 0.4% 228
Chatham 49.8% 12,897 49.7% 12,892 0.5% 133
Cherokee 32.5% 3,635 67.1% 7,517 0.4% 47
Chowan 44.7% 2,406 55.1% 2,967 0.2% 13
Clay 33.5% 1,628 65.9% 3,209 0.6% 29
Cleveland 38.3% 14,215 61.4% 22,750 0.3% 114
Columbus 48.8% 10,343 50.8% 10,773 0.4% 75
Craven 37.1% 14,019 62.4% 23,575 0.4% 162
Cumberland 48.1% 45,788 51.6% 49,139 0.3% 299
Currituck 32.4% 2,909 67.0% 6,013 0.6% 54
Dare 39.5% 6,136 60.1% 9,345 0.4% 67
Davidson 28.9% 17,191 70.7% 42,075 0.4% 230
Davie 25.4% 4,233 74.2% 12,372 0.4% 75
Duplin 41.7% 6,923 58.0% 9,611 0.3% 49
Durham 68.0% 74,524 31.6% 34,614 0.5% 513
Edgecombe 61.1% 12,877 38.7% 8,163 0.2% 39
Forsyth 45.5% 63,340 54.1% 75,294 0.4% 491
Franklin 44.4% 9,286 55.2% 11,540 0.4% 92
Gaston 31.8% 20,254 67.8% 43,252 0.4% 249
Gates 52.3% 2,121 47.5% 1,924 0.2% 8
Graham 31.9% 1,272 67.5% 2,693 0.6% 22
Granville 48.7% 9,057 51.0% 9,491 0.3% 53
Greene 41.2% 2,665 58.7% 3,800 0.1% 7
Guilford 50.2% 100,042 49.3% 98,254 0.5% 1,018
Halifax 58.7% 11,528 41.2% 8,088 0.2% 31
Harnett 35.5% 11,563 64.2% 20,922 0.3% 86
Haywood 43.3% 11,237 56.1% 14,545 0.6% 150
Henderson 34.7% 15,003 64.8% 28,025 0.5% 206
Hertford 63.2% 5,141 36.2% 2,942 0.6% 49
Hoke 52.3% 5,794 47.4% 5,257 0.3% 37
Hyde 45.7% 1,048 53.9% 1,235 0.4% 10
Iredell 31.7% 18,065 67.9% 38,675 0.4% 233
Jackson 47.5% 6,737 51.9% 7,351 0.6% 86
Johnston 31.8% 17,266 67.9% 36,903 0.3% 188
Jones 41.9% 1,893 57.8% 2,607 0.3% 13
Lee 39.2% 7,657 60.6% 11,834 0.3% 52
Lenoir 44.0% 10,207 55.8% 12,939 0.1% 33
Lincoln 31.9% 9,434 67.8% 20,052 0.3% 93
McDowell 33.3% 5,330 66.2% 10,590 0.5% 82
Macon 36.5% 5,489 62.9% 9,448 0.6% 87
Madison 44.7% 4,234 54.7% 5,175 0.6% 54
Martin 48.8% 5,102 51.0% 5,334 0.2% 16
Mecklenburg 51.6% 166,828 48.0% 155,084 0.4% 1,190
Mitchell 26.7% 2,080 72.9% 5,686 0.4% 32
Montgomery 42.8% 4,313 57.0% 5,745 0.2% 22
Moore 35.3% 13,555 64.4% 24,714 0.3% 113
Nash 41.7% 15,693 58.1% 21,902 0.2% 78
New Hanover 43.8% 35,572 55.8% 45,351 0.4% 324
Northampton 63.7% 5,584 36.2% 3,176 0.1% 10
Onslow 30.2% 11,250 69.5% 25,890 0.4% 137
Orange 66.9% 42,910 32.4% 20,771 0.7% 472
Pamlico 38.7% 2,335 60.9% 3,679 0.4% 24
Pasquotank 51.2% 6,984 48.4% 6,609 0.4% 55
Pender 41.0% 6,999 58.7% 10,037 0.3% 49
Perquimans 39.8% 1,971 59.8% 2,965 0.4% 22
Person 40.7% 6,198 59.0% 8,973 0.3% 43
Pitt 46.5% 24,924 53.3% 28,590 0.2% 129
Polk 42.0% 3,787 57.0% 5,140 1.0% 94
Randolph 25.5% 12,966 74.2% 37,771 0.3% 173
Richmond 51.9% 8,383 47.7% 7,709 0.3% 53
Robeson 52.8% 17,868 47.0% 15,909 0.3% 94
Rockingham 38.6% 14,430 61.1% 22,840 0.3% 118
Rowan 32.3% 16,735 67.3% 34,915 0.4% 217
Rutherford 33.2% 8,184 66.3% 16,343 0.5% 131
Sampson 43.3% 9,649 56.5% 12,600 0.2% 39
Scotland 55.3% 6,386 44.5% 5,141 0.2% 20
Stanly 29.9% 7,650 69.7% 17,814 0.3% 89
Stokes 29.7% 5,767 70.0% 13,583 0.3% 64
Surry 31.9% 8,304 67.7% 17,587 0.4% 101
Swain 48.0% 2,419 51.4% 2,593 0.6% 32
Transylvania 39.1% 6,097 60.2% 9,386 0.7% 105
Tyrrell 46.0% 731 53.8% 855 0.3% 4
Union 29.5% 17,974 70.2% 42,820 0.3% 207
Vance 55.9% 8,762 43.9% 6,884 0.2% 31
Wake 48.7% 169,909 50.8% 177,324 0.5% 1,611
Warren 64.4% 5,171 35.4% 2,840 0.2% 16
Washington 54.3% 2,969 45.4% 2,484 0.3% 18
Watauga 46.7% 11,232 52.6% 12,659 0.7% 159
Wayne 37.6% 15,076 62.1% 24,883 0.2% 87
Wilkes 29.0% 7,862 70.7% 19,197 0.3% 95
Wilson 46.5% 14,206 53.3% 16,264 0.2% 65
Yadkin 22.5% 3,451 77.2% 11,816 0.3% 46
Yancey 47.0% 4,434 52.4% 4,940 0.6% 57

By congressional district

Bush won 9 of 13 congressional districts.[10]

District Bush Kerry
1st 42% 57% G.K. Butterfield
2nd 54% 46% Bob Etheridge
3rd 68% 32% Walter B. Jones
4th 44% 55% David Price
5th 66% 33% Richard Burr
Virginia Foxx
6th 69% 30% Howard Coble
7th 56% 44% Mike McIntyre
8th 54% 45% Robin Hayes
9th 63% 36% Sue Wilkins Myrick
10th 67% 33% Cass Ballenger
Patrick T. McHenry
11th 57% 43% Charles H. Taylor
12th 37% 63% Mel Watt
13th 47% 52% Brad Miller

Electors

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Main article: List of United States presidential electors, 2004

Technically the voters of NC cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. NC is allocated 15 electors because it has 13 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 15 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 15 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All were pledged to and voted for Bush/Cheney:

  1. Joseph W. Powell
  2. Ann Sullivan
  3. William B. Carraway
  4. Sandra Carter
  5. William H. Trotter
  6. Thomas D. Luckadoo
  7. Judy Keener
  8. Marcia M. Spiegel
  9. Dewitt Rhoades
  10. Davey G. Williamson
  11. Theresa Esposito
  12. Elizabeth Kelly
  13. Larry W. Potts
  14. Joe Morgan
  15. Robert Rector

References

  1. ↑ http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW
  2. ↑ http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?fips=37
  3. ↑ http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/george_w_bush.asp?cycle=04
  4. ↑ http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/john_f_kerry.asp?cycle=04
  5. ↑ http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/showdown/IA/
  6. ↑ http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/campaign.ads/
  7. ↑ http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/polls/2004-07-12-poll-election_x.htm
  8. ↑ http://www.nationaljournal.com/members/polltrack/2004/races/whitehouse/04wh2004gen_state.htm#AMERICAN%20RESEARCH%20GROUP-NC
  9. ↑ http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/nc_polls.html
  10. ↑ http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/4161/

See also

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