2010 New Year's Eve tornado outbreak

2010 New Year's Eve tornado outbreak

File:Fort Leonard Wood EF3 tornado 31 Dec 2010.jpg The EF3 tornado near Fort Leonard Wood on December 31
Type	Tornado outbreak
Duration	December 30, 2010–January 1, 2011
Tornadoes confirmed	37 confirmed
Max rating1	EF3 tornado
Duration of tornado outbreak2	27 hours, 35 minutes
Highest winds	80 mph (130 km/h) (8 locations on December 31)
Largest hail	2.75 in (7.0 cm) in diameter (NNE of Mansfield on December 31)
Damage	$123.3 million (2010 USD)
Areas affected	Arkansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Illinois, Louisiana, Mississippi
1Most severe tornado damage; see Enhanced Fujita scale 2Time from first tornado to last tornado

The 2010 New Year's Eve tornado outbreak was a three-day long tornado outbreak that impacted the central and lower Mississippi Valley from December 30, 2010 to January 1, 2011. Associated with a low pressure system and a strong cold front, 37 tornadoes tracked across five states over the length of the severe event, killing nine and injuring several others. Activity was centered in the states of Missouri and later Mississippi on December 31. Seven tornadoes were rated EF3 on the Enhanced Fujita Scale; these were the strongest during the outbreak. Non-tornadic winds were recorded to have reached as high as 80 mph (130 km/h) at eight locations on December 31, while hail as large as 2.75 in (7.0 cm) was documented north-northeast of Mansfield, Missouri. Overall, damage from the outbreak totaled US$123.3 million, most of which was related to tornadoes.

The United States Storm Prediction Center first noted a possible New Year's Eve severe weather event as early as December 25, 2010. These forecasts gained confidence as the event approached, with a focus on the Ozarks and adjacent areas. Supercells developed in this area during the night of December 30 and tracked across central Missouri, producing several tornadoes and large hail. However, the bulk of activity during the outbreak was a result of a long line of supercells that tracked from Oklahoma to Illinois, producing five EF3 tornadoes. One of these tracked through northwestern Arkansas, killing four. Another tore through eastern sections of Fort Leonard Wood in Missouri, destroying 159 homes and causing US$90 million in damage, making it the costliest tornado of the outbreak. A separate cluster of storms later developed in Louisiana before tracking into Mississippi, producing several tornadoes across southern and central regions of the state on January 1.

Meteorological synopsis

File:2010 New Year's Eve tornado outbreak map.png

Plot of all tornado touchdowns during the outbreak

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) began to note the possibility that a severe weather event could develop on December 30 as early as December 25, 2010. Nonetheless, the predictability of the event was too low as the event was several days out. As the anticipated event grew closer, confidence in the forecast slowly increased, though uncertainties in the timing and extent of the tornado outbreak still existed. These uncertainties remained through December 29 with forecasts calling for only marginal hail and possibly damaging gusts. However, the SPC indicated that supercells and more severe weather could result from atmospheric conditions deviating slightly from the forecast. In contrast, forecasts were more confident in a widespread outbreak of severe weather for New Year's Eve; the SPC issued a slight risk outlook for much of the Lower Mississippi Valley and the Ozarks as a result.

Atmospheric conditions remained only marginally conducive for the development of thunderstorms on the morning of December 30. Throughout the day, moisture was drawn from the Gulf of Mexico northward into the Ozarks region. However, the presence of a capping inversion prevented thunderstorms from developing. During the evening of December 30, an area of strong wind shear developed near the Ark-La-Tex and southeastern Oklahoma area well ahead of a nearing cold front, providing a focal point for potential storm development. Late that day, scattered thunderstorms developed over eastern Oklahoma and northern Arkansas, producing significant hail. Over the next few hours and into December 31, these storms would intensify as they moved into southwestern Missouri, producing four tornadoes. The first tornado watch issued in association with the severe event was issued at 07:06 UTC on December 31 as these storms tracked across the Ozarks. After a few hours, these supercell thunderstorms lessened in strength as they neared the Greater St. Louis metropolitan area.

While the cluster of thunderstorms was tracking through Missouri, a new line of thunderstorms with embedded supercells developed across eastern Oklahoma and Kansas, demarcating a dry line boundary. Although linear storm systems tend to indicate strong wind events and not tornadoes, these storms tracked eastward into southwestern Missouri. A long-tracked EF3 developed from one of these supercells and struck Cincinnati, Arkansas. At 13:31 UTC on December 31, a tornado watch was issued for much of Missouri and portions of Arkansas and Illinois. Most of the tornadoes during the outbreak stemmed from this line of storms as they moved through Missouri and Illinois throughout the day. At around noon, a new cluster of disorganized showers formed over eastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi. Although these storms were initially weak, they gradually intensified into supercells as the day went on. Additional supercells quickly developed over Louisiana and eventually spread in coverage over Mississippi, resulting in the development of several tornadoes. Reaching their peak strength over Mississippi, the storms gradually lost their intensity as they tracked eastward late on December 31 and into January 1, 2011. By the morning hours of January 1, severe activity had become restricted to the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama; the last tornado watch issued in association with the 2010 New Year's Eve tornado outbreak was issued for those regions at 15:56 UTC that day.

Tornadoes

Confirmed tornadoes by Enhanced Fujita rating

EF0	EF1	EF2	EF3	EF4	EF5	Total
11	14	5	7	0	0	37

December 30 event

List of confirmed tornadoes – Thursday, December 30, 2010

EF#	Location	County / Parish	State	Start Coord.	Time (UTC)	Path length	Max width	Damage	Summary	Refs
EF0	NW of Blue Eye	Stone	MO		0519 – 0524	0.25 mi (0.40 km)	30 yd (27 m)	$50,000	A framed home and a mobile home both sustained minor damage. Additional damage was inflicted upon two large farm gas tanks, a stock trailer, and an outbuilding.
EF1	E of Lampe	Stone	MO		0526 – 0540	3.15 mi (5.07 km)	300 yd (270 m)	$2,000,000	A tornado tracked along the shoreline of a peninsula within Table Rock Lake, damaging or destroying 11 boat docks. Within these docks, 25 boats sustained damage. Around 60 homes suffered minor to moderate roof damage, though one well-built home was unroofed.

December 31 event

List of confirmed tornadoes - Friday, December 31, 2010

EF#	Location	County / Parish	State	Coord.	Time (UTC)	Path length	Max width	Damage	Summary	Refs
EF0	Indian Point	Stone	MO		0617 – 0622	1.75 mi (2.82 km)	75 yd (69 m)	$750,000	A few houses were impacted and approximately six boat docks and four boats were damaged.
EF1	W of Bruner	Christian, Webster	MO		0618 – 0638	8.37 mi (13.47 km)	250 yd (230 m)	$300,000	A trailer home was rotated and displaced 150 yd (140 m). The roof of a barn was removed and several of its walls were collapsed. Numerous trees were snapped and uprooted, and numerous outbuildings were damaged or destroyed.
EF3	NNE of Westville to W of Elm Springs	Adair, Washington, Benton	OK, AR		1205 – 1227	21.1 mi (34.0 km)	500 yd (460 m)	$1,835,000	4 deaths – See section on this tornado
EF0	NNW of Oak Grove	Carroll, Stone	AR, MO		1348 – 1357	4.25 mi (6.84 km)	50 yd (46 m)	$15,000	Barns were damaged, a carport at a residence was destroyed, and several trees were damaged or blown down.
EF0	NE of Bolivar	Polk	MO		1437 – 1441	1 mi (1.6 km)	50 yd (46 m)	$5,000	Three structures sustained minor damage, including a home that had a portion of its roof removed.
EF3	W of Bloodland to ENE of Fort Leonard Wood	Pulaski	MO		1543 – 1603	7.5 mi (12.1 km)	500 yd (460 m)	$90,000,000	A total of 159 homes were damaged, of which 41 were completely destroyed and 32 sustained significant damage. Extensive to moderate damage was inflicted to several military training areas and installation utility systems, while extensive damage occurred in one installation family housing area. The second level of a water treatment plant on the base was removed, and the tornado disrupted the power supply system, shut off the water system, and damaged gas lines.
EF3	ENE of Rolla	Phelps	MO		1606 – 1626	11 mi (18 km)	500 yd (460 m)	$1,000,000	2 deaths – Two single-wide mobile homes were destroyed, with debris thrown upstream. A two-story home was completely destroyed save for its interior walls. Several cars were thrown and minor to moderate roof and tree damage was observed at various locations.
EF1	ESE of Lecoma	Dent, Phelps	MO		1612 – 1632	6.78 mi (10.91 km)	440 yd (400 m)	$500,000	2 deaths – Several structures sustained significant damage or were destroyed. Several trees were downed and power lines were damaged.
EF1	N of Cuba	Crawford	MO		1640 – 1646	6.36 mi (10.24 km)	100 yd (91 m)	Unknown	Numerous trees were snapped or uprooted, and a home and several farmsteads were damaged.
EF1	E of Krakow	Franklin	MO		1716 – 1718	0.8 mi (1.3 km)	100 yd (91 m)	$40,000	On a horse farm, a metal pole barn lost a majority of its roof, an outbuilding sustained roof damage, and a residence lost some shingles. A 35 ft (11 m) radio tower was blown over. Minor tree damage was observed.
EF0	ENE of Krakow	Franklin	MO		1717 – 1718	0.36 mi (0.58 km)	50 yd (46 m)	Unknown	The tornado produced minor trim damage to a home and trees. A road sign was blown over.
EF2	S of Moselle to W of Hoene Springs	Franklin, Jefferson	MO		1719 – 1735	12.19 mi (19.62 km)	370 yd (340 m)	Unknown	Over two dozen structures were damaged, including a home and a building that were completely destroyed, and extensive tree damage was observed. A church sustained severe damage to its west-facing wall and an old church sanctuary was completely leveled.
EF0	Augusta area	St. Charles	MO		1725 – 1728	1.96 mi (3.15 km)	50 yd (46 m)	Unknown	A barn was knocked down, with a portion of its roof tossed across the road. A house sustained minor exterior damage, a portion of the roof to an outbuilding was removed, and a tree was uprooted.
EF1	E of Lonedell	Franklin, Jefferson	MO		1727 – 1735	8.6 mi (13.8 km)	50 yd (46 m)	Unknown	Several trees were snapped or uprooted and a barn sustained moderate roof damage.
EF1	NE of Ballwin	St. Louis	MO		1748 – 1750	1.7 mi (2.7 km)	175 yd (160 m)	Unknown	Numerous trees were snapped or uprooted. Nearly three dozen homes sustained minor damage.
EF3	ENE of Murphy to NNW of Meacham Park	Jefferson, St. Louis	MO		1748 – 1800	6.65 mi (10.70 km)	440 yd (400 m)	$1,000,000	1 death – See section on this tornado
EF0	WNW of Mozier	Calhoun	IL		1756 – 1759	3.64 mi (5.86 km)	50 yd (46 m)	$0	Damage was confined to uprooted trees.
EF1	St. Louis	St. Louis	MO		1808 – 1811	2.71 mi (4.36 km)	100 yd (91 m)	Unknown	Numerous homes sustained roof damage.
EF0	NNE of Lebanon	St. Clair	IL		1830 – 1831	0.14 mi (0.23 km)	50 yd (46 m)	Unknown	A few outbuildings and trees on a farmstead were damaged.
EF3	Lake Petersburg area	Menard	IL		1837 – 1840	3.63 mi (5.84 km)	200 yd (180 m)	$12,000,000	Nearly 100 homes and a nursing home sustained minor damage. A total of 29 homes sustained significant damage, four beyond repair, and two barns were destroyed.
EF0	SW of Durley	Bond	IL		1905 – 1907	1.74 mi (2.80 km)	100 yd (91 m)	Unknown	An agricultural building sustained roof damage, several houses sustained minor roof and siding damage, and tree damage was observed.
EF2	W of Ellsinore	Carter	MO		1924 – 1930	2.63 mi (4.23 km)	200 yd (180 m)	$200,000	The tin roof was pulled off an outbuilding. A home sustained partial roof and wall collapse, a mobile home was blown 15 ft (4.6 m) off its foundation, and over 100 trees were uprooted. A shed and some outbuildings were destroyed, while a twin-pole high voltage transmission tower was partially blown over. A sawmill was destroyed, part of a roof to a metal barn was blown into trees, vehicles were damaged, and another home sustained minor roof damage.
EF2	NNW of Poplar Bluff	Butler	MO		2025 – 2026	0.24 mi (0.39 km)	100 yd (91 m)	$250,000	A well-built residence lost about one-third of its roof, several trees were snapped or uprooted, shingles were ripped off a small shed, an antenna tower was damaged, and fences were damaged.
EF0	SSE of Rogers	La Salle	LA		2035 – 2036	0.38 mi (0.61 km)	50 yd (46 m)	$20,000	A few trees were snapped, the front porch was removed from a trailer house, damaging a portion of the roof, and tin sheets were removed from a nearby barn.
EF1	S of Vicksburg	Warren	MS		2211 – 2215	3.56 mi (5.73 km)	100 yd (91 m)	$110,000	Shingles were blown off several roofs, a hanger lost a portion of its roof, a mobile home was damaged, and a power pole was snapped. A few trees were blown down.
EF2	N of Terry to ESE of Luckney	Hinds, Rankin	MS		2244 – 2325	26.17 mi (42.12 km)	800 yd (730 m)	$2,700,000	Numerous trees were snapped and uprooted. Several structures were damaged, dozens of billboards were blown out, a tanker truck was overturned, and numerous power poles were snapped.
EF0	S of Star	Rankin	MS		2342 – 2345	1.38 mi (2.22 km)	50 yd (46 m)	$2,000	Multiple limbs and a few trees were downed.
EF1	N of Vaughn	Lincoln	MS		0209 – 0213	2.12 mi (3.41 km)	50 yd (46 m)	$250,000	Numerous trees were snapped or uprooted. An outbuilding was destroyed and several others were heavily damaged. One house lost a few of its shingles, while another home had its windows blown out, sustained shingle damage, and was shifted off its blocks.

January 1 event

List of confirmed tornadoes - Saturday, January 1, 2011

EF#	Location	County / Parish	State	Coord.	Time (UTC)	Path length	Max width	Damage	Summary	Refs
EF3	ENE of Boyette to N of Ethel	Attala	MS		0602 – 0626	23.45 mi (37.74 km)	1,300 yd (1,200 m)	$5,000,000	Thousands of trees were snapped or uprooted. On a church complex, the main church's roof was heavily damaged and several camp buildings were destroyed. A number of outbuildings were destroyed, significant roof damage was inflicted to several residences, and several vehicles were damaged.
EF1	Weir	Choctaw	MS		0640 – 0641	0.61 mi (0.98 km)	75 yd (69 m)	$65,000	Several large trees were snapped, one of which fell on a house, severely damaging its roof. Minor damage was inflicted to several mobile homes and a church, and the roof was blown off a shed.
EF1	ENE of Weir	Choctaw	MS		0646 – 0653	6.52 mi (10.49 km)	75 yd (69 m)	$20,000	A number of trees were snapped and uprooted, and a couple of small outbuildings sustained roof damage.
EF1	Starkville area	Oktibbeha	MS		0715 – 0718	1.29 mi (2.08 km)	250 yd (230 m)	$3,000,000	The roof of a metal commercial building was pulled back and its overhead door was blown in. A number of soccer goals and dugouts were blown over and some fencing was damaged. The entire roofing structure of one apartment building was removed, the facade was blown off another building, and several other structures suffered shingle or fascia damage. Part of a carwash's roof was blown off, a church sustained gutter damage, and some power lines and several trees were downed.
EF2	SW of Shuqualak	Kemper, Noxubee	MS		0800 – 0809	6.07 mi (9.77 km)	860 yd (790 m)	$800,000	Numerous trees were snapped and uprooted. The roof and some walls were removed from one home, while several others sustained roof and window damage as well. Two outbuildings, a shed, and a well-built garage were destroyed, while several others were severely damaged.
EF3	SE of Macon	Noxubee	MS		0825 – 0841	9.63 mi (15.50 km)	1,330 yd (1,220 m)	$1,500,000	Numerous trees were snapped or uprooted, with one completely debarked, and several power poles were snapped. A barn, milk house, silo, and mobile home were completely destroyed on a dairy farm. A metal farm building and an office were destroyed, while an 18-wheeler was pushed approximately 25 yd (23 m). The second story of a house, a barn, and some metal buildings at a pig farm were destroyed, and a pivot was overturned. Other homes sustained roof damage.
EF1	Damascus to SW of De Kalb	Kemper	MS		0856 – 0909	11.06 mi (17.80 km)	440 yd (400 m)	$110,000	The roof was blown off a wood-frame home and several others sustained minor shingle damage. Numerous outbuildings were severely damaged or destroyed, and numerous trees were snapped or uprooted.

Notable tornadoes

Cincinnati, Arkansas

File:31 Dec 2010 Cincinnati tornado damage.jpg

Damage in Cincinnati, Arkansas

The deadliest tornado of the 2010 New Year's Eve tornado outbreak moved across extreme eastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas, tracking 21.1 mi (34.0 km) and damaging the unincorporated community of Cincinnati, Arkansas. The first tornado warning associated was issued at 12:00 UTC for portions of Adair County in Oklahoma and Benton and Washington counties in Arkansas by the National Weather Service Tulsa, Oklahoma. At around the same time, damaging winds estimated at around 70 mph (110 km/h) tore the roof off of a barn southwest of Westville, Oklahoma; these winds were likely a result of inflow caused by the developing tornado. Post-tornado survey teams concluded that the tornado touched down five minutes later northeast of Westville. Quickly tracking northeast, the tornado snapped 13 large wooden utility poles. Four cars were displaced by 20–50 yd (18–46 m) and a nearby home sustained significant roof damage and broken windows; this resulted in an EF2 rating for the tornado within Adair County. Damage in Adair County totaled $60,000. At 12:08 UTC, the tornado crossed the Oklahoma-Arkansas border and moved into Benton County, Arkansas.

At 12:10 UTC, the tornado tracked into Cincinnati, Arkansas, where it reached its peak intensity. Winds were estimated as high as 142 mph (229 km/h) and the tornado widened to a width of 300 yd (270 m), making the tornado an EF3 at this location. Several homes were destroyed or heavily damaged in the southwestern areas of the town. Numerous trees and power poles were knocked down or uprooted. Two people were killed when a mobile home was destroyed, while another person died as he was tending cattle when the barn he occupied collapsed. Seven others were injured in Cincinnati. The tornado continued to widen as it trekked northeastward, reaching a maximum width of 500 yd (460 m). Several permanent homes were heavily damaged northeast of Cincinnati, and a number of chicken houses, mobile homes, outbuildings, and power poles were destroyed. One woman was critically injured after her mobile home was destroyed; she died of her injuries at a hospital four days later. Damage in Cincinnati and surrounding areas within Benton County reached $1.5 million.

After 12:17 UTC, the tornado's position fluctuated between Benton and Washington counties in northwestern Arkansas. Permanent houses were damaged and mobile homes were destroyed. Numerous trees were uprooted or snapped while many other power poles were snapped. Two people were injured following the destruction of a mobile home within the Ozark National Forest in Benton County, while another person was injured west of Tontitown, Arkansas in Washington County. The tornado finally dissipated northwest of Tontitown at 12:27 UTC after causing four deaths and ten injuries. Overall, the tornado caused $1.835 million in damage, which was the sixth costliest total during the tornado outbreak.

Fenton–Sunset Hills, Missouri tornado

At 17:22 UTC on December 31, the National Weather Service St. Louis, Missouri issued a tornado warning for a severe squall line capable of producing rain-wrapped tornadoes and wind damage. The warning covered ten counties in Missouri and Illinois straddling the Mississippi River and included St. Louis. Shortly after the warning's issuance, two EF1 tornadoes tracked across Jefferson and St. Louis counties, causing extensive tree damage and minor property damage. However, the most destructive tornado from the passing squall line touched down at 17:48 UTC east-northeast of Murphy, Missouri in northern Jefferson County. Initially, the tornado was an EF0 with a path width of 40 yd (37 m) and lifted before touching down again just north of Missouri Route 30 near the Jefferson-St. Louis county line. Small trees and minor roof damage occurred at the point of this second touch down before the tornado moved northeastward into St. Louis County, where the tornado caused a bulk of its damage and was at its strongest.

A large subdivision near Route 30 sustained minor roof and tree damage, which was rated as EF0 intensity. However, as the tornado was intensifying through the neighborhood, three homes to the subdivision's east suffered more considerable roof and siding damage and was assigned an EF1 damage intensity rating. The tornado then crossed Missouri Route 141, where it blew a Honda CR-V into a highway barrier; the driver of the vehicle suffered critical injuries and died eleven days later from those injuries. After crossing the highway, a number of buildings were damaged including a church, elementary school, and parsonage. Damage in this area was rated as EF2 due to the partial debarking of a nearby tree. Minor tree damage occurred as the tornado moved through Fenton Park and tracked over the Meramec River.

After crossing the river, the tornado weakened to EF1 strength, damaging several homes while also leaving behind an interrupted damage path. The tornado crossed Interstate 270 before rapidly intensifying at around 17:56 UTC. Numerous trees were uprooted while many homes sustained considerable damage. Six homes were unroofed and one was destroyed and shifted from its foundation; this damage was rated high-end EF3. At the time, the tornado was 0.25 mi (0.40 km) wide. The tornado weakened to EF1 intensity afterwards, causing more minor damage to a strip mall and several homes. Six power poles were knocked down shortly before the tornado lifted at 18:00 UTC in western Crestwood, Missouri.

Non-tornadic impacts

Beginning on December 29 and continuing for three days, the storm system associated with the tornado outbreak caused strong winds across the Texas Panhandle and eastern New Mexico. The winds were further enhanced by isolated showers, and gusts peaked at 79 mph (127 km/h) in Tatum, New Mexico. Approximately 7 mi (11 km) west of Levelland, Texas, the winds downed four power poles, sparking a fire that burned nearly 2,000 acres (800 hectares) of grassland before it was finally contained; the fire caused US$20,000 in damage. In Allen, Oklahoma, strong winds associated with one supercell caused an estimated US$20,000 in damage after damaging the carport, chimney, and roof of a house. Hail and strong winds were also reported elsewhere in eastern Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas. Widespread and damaging wind gusts and hail later crossed into northwestern Arkansas, causing US$175,000 in damage. Several buildings and homes were destroyed by the strong winds; similar impacts were seen in Missouri and Illinois.

In Mississippi, rainfall totals between 1–4 in (25–102 mm) were widespread. The highest precipitation total was 5.58 in (142 mm) south of Grace, Mississippi. In Scott County, residents were forced to evacuate out of Forest and Morton due to flash floods that caused $470,000 in damage. Similarly, the inundation washed out roads and flooded cars in Winona. Overall, flood damage in Mississippi amounted to US$1.135 million.

See also

• List of North American tornadoes and tornado outbreaks
• Tornadoes of 2010
• Tornadoes of 2011