2020 United States Senate election in Kentucky

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For related races, see 2020 United States Senate elections.
2020 United States Senate election in Kentucky
← 2014 November 3, 2020 2026 →
  x150px x150px x150px
Nominee Mitch McConnell Amy McGrath Brad Barron
Party Republican Democratic Libertarian
Incumbent U.S. senator

Mitch McConnell
Republican


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The 2020 United States Senate election in Kentucky will be held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Kentucky, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican Senator Mitch McConnell, who has been Senate Majority Leader since 2015 and senator from Kentucky since 1985, is running for reelection to a seventh term in office. He faces off against former U.S. Marine fighter pilot Amy McGrath and Libertarian Brad Barron.

The Democratic and Republican primaries took place on June 23, 2020. As the primaries neared, the president of the National Bar Association accused officials of carrying out voter suppression. Compared to typical numbers of 3,700, the number of polling stations was reduced to 200 with only one in Louisville.[1] Because a large number of voters voted by mail, absentee ballots were not counted until June 30. Over 973,000 people requested absentee ballots, a far greater number than usual.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • Nicholas Alsager[4]
  • Paul John Frangedakis, chiropractor[4] (switched to independent write-in candidacy after losing primary)[5]
  • Louis Grider, truck driver[4]
  • Neren James[4]
  • Kenneth Lowndes[4]
  • Wesley Morgan, former state representative[6]

Withdrawn

  • Wendell K. Crow, businessman and entrepreneur[4][7] (remained on ballot)
  • Karl Das[8][7]

Results

File:Kentucky U.S. Senate Republican primary, 2020.svg
Results by county:
  McConnell—>90%
  McConnell—80–90%
  McConnell—70–80%
Republican primary results[9]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Mitch McConnell (incumbent) 342,660 82.80%
Republican Wesley Morgan 25,588 6.18%
Republican Louis Grider 13,771 3.33%
Republican Paul John Frangedakis 11,957 2.89%
Republican Neren James 10,693 2.58%
Republican Kenneth Lowndes 5,548 1.34%
Republican Nicholas Alsager 3,603 0.87%
Total votes 413,820 100.0%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

  • Jimmy Ausbrooks, mental health counselor[18] (endorsed Mike Broihier)[19] (remained on ballot)
  • Steven Cox, registered pharmacy technician[20] (endorsed Charles Booker)[21]
  • Joshua Paul Edwards[22][7]
  • Kevin Elliott, Assistant Professor of Political Science at Murray State University[8][7]
  • Dr. Loretta Babalmoradi Noble[23][7]

Declined

Campaign

There were debates on March 5, 2020[32][33] and June 1, 2020.[34][35]

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Charles
Booker		 Amy
McGrath		 Other Undecided
Data for Progress[upper-alpha 1] June 10–22, 2020 556 (LV) – 43% 46% – 10%
Garin-Hart-Yang[upper-alpha 2] June 16–18, 2020 – – 32% 42% – –
Civiqs/Data for Progress June 13–15, 2020 421 (LV) ± 5.5% 44% 36% 9%[lower-alpha 2] 11%
YouGov Blue/MVMT Communications[upper-alpha 3] June 8–12, 2020 313 (RV) ± 7.0% 39% 49% 6%[lower-alpha 3] 3%
YouGov Blue/MVMT Communications[upper-alpha 3] May 2020 –[lower-alpha 4] – 13% 62% – –
YouGov Blue/MVMT Communications[upper-alpha 3] April 2020 –[lower-alpha 4] – 11% 62% – –
YouGov Blue/MVMT Communications[upper-alpha 3] January 2020 –[lower-alpha 4] – 7% 65% – –

Endorsements

Results

File:Kentucky U.S. Senate Democratic primary, 2020.svg
Results by county:
  McGrath—60–70%
  McGrath—50–60%
  McGrath—40–50%
  Booker—40–50%
  Booker—50–60%
Democratic primary results[9]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Amy McGrath 247,037 45.41%
Democratic Charles Booker 231,888 42.62%
Democratic Mike Broihier 27,175 4.99%
Democratic Mary Ann Tobin 11,108 2.04%
Democratic Maggie Joe Hilliard 6,224 1.14%
Democratic Andrew Maynard 5,974 1.10%
Democratic Bennie J. Smith 5,040 0.93%
Democratic Jimmy Ausbrooks (withdrawn) 3,629 0.67%
Democratic Eric Rothmuller 2,995 0.55%
Democratic John R. Sharpensteen 2,992 0.55%
Total votes 544,062 100.0%

Other candidates

Libertarian primary

The Libertarian Party of Kentucky does not qualify to nominate through the taxpayer-funded primary and will hold its privately-operated primary, open to those who are and remain registered to vote as a Libertarian from January 1 to present in the state of Kentucky,[61] on March 8, 2020.[62] All candidates of the Libertarian Party of Kentucky must defeat None Of The Above (NOTA) to obtain the nomination.[63]

Nominee

  • Brad Barron, farmer and entrepreneur[64]

Reform Party

Withdrawn

Independents

Declared

  • Paul John Frangedakis (as a write-in candidate) (switched from Republican candidacy after losing primary)[5]
  • Randall Lee Teegarden (as a write-in candidate)[5]

Withdrawn

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[67] Likely R August 17, 2020
Inside Elections[68] Safe R September 18, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[69] Likely R August 5, 2020
Daily Kos[70] Safe R August 31, 2020
Politico[71] Likely R September 9, 2020
RCP[72] Likely R September 17, 2020
Niskanen[73] Likely R September 15, 2020
DDHQ[74] Likely R September 16, 2020
538[75] Likely R September 18, 2020

Endorsements

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Mitch
McConnell (R)		 Amy
McGrath (D)		 Brad
Barron (L)		 Other /
Undecided
Morning Consult September 11–20, 2020 746 (LV) ± (2% – 7%) 52% 37% – –
Data for Progress (D) September 14–19, 2020 807 (LV) ± 3.5% 46% 39% 3% 12%[lower-alpha 5]
Quinnipiac University September 10–14, 2020 1,164 (LV) ± 2.9% 53% 41% – 5%[lower-alpha 6]
Quinnipiac University July 30 – August 3, 2020 909 (RV) ± 3.3% 49% 44% – 7%[lower-alpha 7]
Bluegrass Data (D)[upper-alpha 4] July 25–29, 2020 3,020 (RV) ± 2.0% 49% 46% 4% –
Morning Consult July 24 – August 2, 2020 793 (LV) ± 3.0% 53% 36% – 12%[lower-alpha 8]
Spry Strategies (R)[upper-alpha 5] July 11–16, 2020 600 (LV) ± 3.7% 55% 33% – 12%[lower-alpha 9]
Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D)[upper-alpha 2] July 7–12, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 45% 41% 7% 7%[lower-alpha 10]
Civiqs/Data for Progress June 13–15, 2020 898 (RV) ± 3.8% 53% 33% 4% 11%[lower-alpha 11]
RMG Research[lower-alpha 12] May 21–24, 2020 500 (RV) ± 4.5% 40% 41% – 19%[lower-alpha 13]
Bluegrass Data (D)[upper-alpha 4] April 7-12, 2020[lower-alpha 14] 4,000 (RV) – 40% 38% 7% –
Change Research (D)[upper-alpha 2] January 17–21, 2020 1,281 (LV) ± 2.8% 41% 41% – 18%
Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D)[upper-alpha 2] January 813, 2020 802 (LV) ± 3.5% 43% 40% – 17%
Fabrizio Ward/AARP July 29–31, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 46% – 6%
Change Research (D)[upper-alpha 2] June 15–16, 2019 1,629 (LV) – 47% 45% – 8%
Hypothetical polling
with Charles Booker
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Mitch
McConnell (R)		 Charles
Booker (D)		 Other /
Undecided
Civiqs/Data for Progress June 13–15, 2020 898 (RV) ± 3.8% 52% 38% 9%[lower-alpha 15]
with Jim Gray
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Mitch
McConnell (R)		 Jim
Gray (D)		 Undecided
Gravis Marketing June 11–12, 2019 741 (LV) ± 3.6% 49% 41% 10%
with Generic Democrat
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Mitch
McConnell (R)		 Generic
Democrat		 Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling May 14–15, 2020 1,104 (V) – 47% 44% 9%
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 6] Feb 11–12, 2019 748 (RV) ± 3.6% 45% 42% 12%
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 7] Aug 15–16, 2017 645 (V) – 37% 44% 19%
on whether Mitch McConnell deserves to be re-elected
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Yes No Other /
Undecided
Fabrizio Ward/AARP July 29–31, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 31% 62% 8%[lower-alpha 16]
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 6] Feb 11–12, 2019 748 (RV) ± 3.6% 32% 61% 8%
with Generic Republican and Generic Democrat
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Generic
Republican		 Generic
Democrat		 Other /
Undecided
Quinnipiac University September 10–14, 2020 1,164 (LV) ± 2.9% 54% 38% 8%[lower-alpha 17]
Fabrizio Ward/AARP July 29–31, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 42% 13%[lower-alpha 18]

Results

United States Senate election in Kentucky, 2020
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Mitch McConnell (incumbent) {{{change}}}
Democratic Amy McGrath {{{change}}}
Libertarian Brad Barron {{{change}}}
Write-in
Total votes 100.0%

Notes

Partisan clients
  1. ↑ Poll released after the primary in July
  2. ↑ 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 Poll sponsored by McGrath's campaign
  3. ↑ 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 Poll sponsored by Booker's campaign
  4. ↑ 4.0 4.1 This poll's sponsor, Ditch Mitch Fund, supported the electoral defeat of Mitch McConnell prior to the sampling period
  5. ↑ This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501 that supports the Republican Party.
  6. ↑ 6.0 6.1 Poll sponsored by The Ditch Mitch Fund
  7. ↑ Poll sponsored by Our Lives on the Line
Voter samples
  1. ↑ 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ↑ Broihier with 4%; Tobin with 1%; "someone else" with 4%
  3. ↑ Broihier with 5%; other with 1%
  4. ↑ 4.0 4.1 4.2 Not yet released
  5. ↑ Undecided with 12%
  6. ↑ "Someone else" with 1%; Undecided with 4%
  7. ↑ "Someone else" and would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 5%
  8. ↑ "Someone else" and Undecided with 6%
  9. ↑ Undecided with 12%
  10. ↑ Undecided with 7%
  11. ↑ "someone else" with 8%; undecided with 3%
  12. ↑ U.S. Term Limits is a PAC supporting candidates who support term limits in Congress.
  13. ↑ Undecided with 10%; "Some other candidate" with 9%
  14. ↑ Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  15. ↑ Barron (L) with 4%; "someone else" with 2%; undecided with 3%
  16. ↑ Undecided with 7%; "refused" with 1%
  17. ↑ Undecided with 8%
  18. ↑ Undecided with 10%; "don't know/refused" with 3%

References

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External links

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