2020 United States presidential election in Florida
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The 2020 United States presidential election in Florida is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate.[1] Florida voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Florida has 29 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]
Miami Beach, Florida, which hosted the 1972 Democratic National Convention, was a finalist to host the 2020 Democratic National Convention.[3] The other finalists were Milwaukee and Houston. Milwaukee was ultimately decided as the host.[4][5] Florida will be incumbent president Donald Trump's home state for this election, after having identified New York as his home in 2016.[6] As a result, Trump became the first nominee of either major party to be from Florida. Vice President Joe Biden was selected as the Democratic Party's presidential nominee in the 2020 Florida Democratic presidential primary on March 17, 2020.
United States Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit, located in Atlanta, ruled that ex-felons could not vote in Florida unless they pay fines and fees. Florida voters approved amendment 4 in November 2018, which restored voting for felons except for those who committed murders or were involved in sex-crimes. The Republican-controlled legislature then passed a law which required ex-felons to settle their financial obligation in courts. United States District Court in Tallahassee ruled against it in May, but the circuit court overturned it in September, which may create further problems for ex-felons to exercise their voting rights in November. Civil rights organizations including American Civil Liberties Union opposed the decision by the court.[7]
Contents
General election
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[8] | Tossup | September 10, 2020 |
Inside Elections[9] | Tilt D (flip) | September 4, 2020 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[10] | Tossup | July 14, 2020 |
Politico[11] | Tossup | September 8, 2020 |
RCP[12] | Tossup | August 3, 2020 |
Niskanen[13] | Likely D (flip) | September 15, 2020 |
CNN[14] | Tossup | August 3, 2020 |
The Economist[15] | Lean D (flip) | September 2, 2020 |
CBS News[16] | Tossup | August 16, 2020 |
270towin[17] | Tossup | August 2, 2020 |
ABC News[18] | Lean D (flip) | July 31, 2020 |
NPR[19] | Lean D (flip) | August 3, 2020 |
NBC News[20] | Lean D (flip) | August 6, 2020 |
538[21] | Tilt D (flip) | September 9, 2020 |
Polling
Graphical summary
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Aggregate polls
Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other/ Undecided[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
270 to Win | August 30 – September 8, 2020 | September 12, 2020 | 48.4% | 46.2% | 5.4% | Biden +2.2 |
Real Clear Politics | August 28 – September 8, 2020 | September 12, 2020 | 48.2% | 47.0% | 4.8% | Biden +1.2 |
FiveThirtyEight | until September 8, 2020 | September 12, 2020 | 48.6% | 45.9% | 5.5% | Biden +2.7 |
Average | 48.4% | 46.4% | 5.2% | Biden +2.0 |
State polls
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian |
Howie Hawkins Green |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
St. Pete Polls | Sep 21–22, 2020 | 2,906 (LV) | ± 1.8% | 47% | 50% | - | - | 2%[lower-alpha 3] | 2% |
Change Research/CNBC | Sep 18–20, 2020 | 702 (LV) | – | 46% | 49% | - | - | – | – |
ABC/Washington Post | Sep 15–20, 2020 | 613 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 51% | 47% | - | - | 1%[lower-alpha 4] | 1% |
YouGov/CBS | Sep 15–18, 2020 | 1,205 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 48% | - | - | 1%[lower-alpha 5] | 5% |
Ipsos/Reuters | Sep 11–17, 2020 | 586 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 47% | 47% | - | - | 2%[lower-alpha 6] | 4% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | Sep 12–14, 2020 | 1,158 (LV) | ± 2.88% | 44% | 47% | 1% | 1% | 1%[lower-alpha 7] | 6% |
Monmouth University | Sep 10–13, 2020 | 428 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 45% | 50% | 2% | 0% | 1%[lower-alpha 8] | 3% |
428 (LV) | 45%[lower-alpha 9] | 50% | - | - | 1%[lower-alpha 10] | 3% | |||
46%[lower-alpha 11] | 49% | - | - | 1%[lower-alpha 12] | 3% | ||||
Kaiser Family Foundation/Cook Political Report | Aug 29 – Sep 13, 2020 | 1,009 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 43% | - | - | 4%[lower-alpha 13] | 11% |
Florida Atlantic University | Sep 11–12, 2020 | 631 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 50% | 50% | - | - | 0%[lower-alpha 14] | – |
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics/AARP | Sep 7–8, 2020 | 2,689 (LV) | ± 1.9% | 47% | 50% | - | - | 2%[lower-alpha 15] | 2% |
Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group/AARP[1] | Aug 30 – Sep 8, 2020 | 1,600 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 46% | 48% | - | - | – | 6% |
Morning Consult | Aug 29 – Sep 7, 2020 | 3,914 (LV) | ± (2%-4%) | 43%[lower-alpha 16] | 50% | - | - | – | – |
Change Research/CNBC | Sep 4–6, 2020 | 1,144 (LV) | – | 46% | 49% | - | - | 4%[lower-alpha 17] | – |
Marist College/NBC | Aug 31 – Sep 5, 2020 | 760 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 48% | 48% | - | - | 1% | 2% |
Trafalgar Group | Sep 1–3, 2020 | 1,022 (LV) | ± 2.99% | 48.7% | 45.6% | 2.2% | - | 1.3%[lower-alpha 18] | 2.3% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | Aug 30 – Sep 3, 2020 | 1,093 (LV) | ± 2.96% | 43% | 48% | 1% | 1% | 1%[lower-alpha 19] | 6% |
GQR Research (D) | Aug 26 - Sep 3, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 51% | - | - | – | – |
Quinnipiac | Aug 28 – Sep 1, 2020 | 1,235 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 45% | 48% | - | - | 1%[lower-alpha 20] | 5% |
Morning Consult | Aug 21–30, 2020 | 3,790 (LV) | ± (2%–4%) | 47% | 49% | - | - | – | – |
Opinium/The Guardian[2] | Aug 21–26, 2020 | 684 (LV) | – | 43% | 50% | - | - | 1% | 6% |
Change Research/CNBC | Aug 21–23, 2020 | 1,262 (LV) | – | 46% | 49% | - | - | – | – |
PPP | Aug 21–22, 2020 | 671 (V) | ± 3.8% | 44% | 48% | - | - | – | 7% |
Redfield and Wilton Strategies | Aug 16, 2020 | 1,280 (LV) | – | 41% | Template:Party shading/Democrat|49% | 1% | - | 1%[lower-alpha 21] | 7% |
Morning Consult | Aug 7–16, 2020 | 3,484 (LV) | ± (2%–4%) | 45% | 50% | - | - | – | – |
Tyson Group/Consumer Energy Alliance[upper-alpha 1] | Aug 11–15, 2020 | 750 (LV) | ± 4% | 44% | 46% | 2% | - | 1%[lower-alpha 22] | 6% |
Change Research/CNBC | Aug 7–9, 2020 | 469 (LV) | – | 44% | Template:Party shading/Democrat|50% | - | - | – | – |
OnMessage Inc./Heritage Action[upper-alpha 2] | Aug 2–4, 2020 | 400 (LV) | – | 49% | 49% | - | - | – | 2% |
Change Research/CNBC[3] | Jul 24–26, 2020 | 685 (LV) | – | 45% | 48% | - | - | – | – |
Morning Consult | Jul 17–26, 2020 | 3,760 (LV) | ± 1.6% | 46% | 49% | - | - | – | – |
CNN/SSRS | Jul 18–24, 2020 | 880 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 46% | 51% | - | - | 2%[lower-alpha 23] | 2% |
Zogby Analytics | Jul 21–23, 2020 | 811 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 43% | 43% | 3% | 2% | – | 9% |
Mason-Dixon | Jul 20–23, 2020 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 50% | - | - | – | 4% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | Jul 19–21, 2020 | 1,121 (RV) | – | 41% | 48% | 1% | 1% | 1%[lower-alpha 24] | 8% |
Quinnipiac University | Jul 16–20, 2020 | 924 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 38% | 51% | - | - | 6%[lower-alpha 25] | 5% |
Florida Politics/AARP Florida/St. Pete Polls | Jul 13–14, 2020 | 3,018 (RV) | ± 1.8% | 44% | 50% | - | - | 2%[lower-alpha 26] | 3% |
Gravis Marketing | Jul 13, 2020 | 513 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 43% | 53% | - | - | – | 4% |
Change Research/CNBC | Jul 10–12, 2020 | 1,128 (LV) | – | 43% | 50% | - | - | – | – |
YouGov/CBS | Jul 7–10, 2020 | 1,206 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 42% | 48% | - | - | 2%[lower-alpha 27] | 8% |
Trafalgar Group | Jun 29 – Jul 2, 2020 | 1,072 (LV) | ± 2.91% | 46% | 46% | - | - | 5%[lower-alpha 28] | 3% |
Change Research/CNBC | Jun 26–28, 2020 | 951 (LV)[lower-alpha 29] | – | 45% | 50% | - | - | – | – |
Fox News | Jun 20–23, 2020 | 1,010 (RV) | ± 3% | 40% | 49% | - | - | 6%[lower-alpha 30] | 6% |
NYT Upshot/Siena College | Jun 8–18, 2020 | 651 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 41% | 47% | - | - | 4%[lower-alpha 31] | 7% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | Jun 14–15, 2020 | 1,079 (LV) | ± 2.98% | 41% | 45% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 11% |
Change Research/CNBC | Jun 12–14, 2020 | 713 (LV)[lower-alpha 32] | – | 43% | 50% | - | - | 3%[lower-alpha 33] | – |
Gravis Marketing/OANN | Released Jun 11, 2020 | –[lower-alpha 34] | – | 50% | 50% | - | - | – | – |
TIPP/American Greatness PAC[upper-alpha 3] | Jun 9–11, 2020 | 875 (LV) | – | 40% | 51% | - | - | 4%[lower-alpha 35] | 5% |
Change Research/CNBC | May 29–31, 2020 | 1,186 (LV)[lower-alpha 36] | – | 45% | 48% | - | - | 2% | 4% |
Cygnal (R) | May 18–30, 2020 | 881 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 43.8% | 47% | - | - | 3.3%[lower-alpha 37] | 5.9% |
St. Pete Polls | May 26–27, 2020 | 4,763 (RV) | ± 1.4% | 46.7% | 47.5% | - | - | 2.7%[lower-alpha 38] | 3.1% |
Morning Consult | May 17-26, 2020 | 3,593 (LV) | – | 48% | 47% | – | – | ||
Point Blank Political | May 14–17, 2020 | 2,149 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 44% | 45% | 1%[lower-alpha 39] | <1%[lower-alpha 40] | 2% | 8% |
Point Blank Political | May 14–17, 2020 | 2,149 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 52% | - | - | – | – |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | May 10–14, 2020 | 1,014 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 45% | - | - | 3%[lower-alpha 41] | 10% |
Florida Atlantic University | May 8–12, 2020 | 928 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 47% | 53% | - | - | – | – |
Fox News | Apr 18–21, 2020 | 1,004 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 46% | - | - | 3% | 7% |
Quinnipiac University | Apr 16–20, 2020 | 1,385 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 42% | 46% | - | - | 3% | 7% |
St. Pete Polls | Apr 16–17, 2020 | 5,659 (RV) | ± 1.3% | 48% | 48% | - | - | – | 4% |
University of North Florida | Mar 31 – Apr 4, 2020 | 3,244 (RV) | ± 1.7% | 40% | 46% | - | - | – | 8% |
AtlasIntel | Mar 14–16, 2020 | 1,100 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 45% | - | - | 10% | – |
Univision | Mar 6–12, 2020 | 1,071 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 45% | - | - | – | 7% |
Florida Atlantic University | Mar 5–7, 2020 | 1,216 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 51% | 49% | - | - | – | – |
Saint Leo University | Feb 17–22, 2020 | 900 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 40% | 51% | - | - | – | 8% |
University of North Florida | Feb 10–18, 2020 | 668 (RV) | – | 48% | 49% | - | - | – | 3% |
Florida Atlantic University | Jan 9–12, 2020 | 1,285 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 49% | 51% | - | - | – | – |
Cherry Communications/Florida Chamber of Commerce[upper-alpha 4] | Jan 3–12, 2020 | 608 (LV) | ± 4% | 49% | 45% | - | - | – | – |
Mason-Dixon | Dec 11–16, 2019 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 47% | - | - | – | 8% |
NYT Upshot/Siena College | Oct 13–26, 2019 | 650 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 44% | 46% | - | - | – | – |
University of North Florida | Oct 14–20, 2019 | 643 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 43% | 48% | - | - | 6%[lower-alpha 42] | 3% |
Florida Atlantic University | Sep 12–15, 2019 | 934 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 50.5% | 49.5% | - | - | – | – |
Quinnipiac University | Jun 12–17, 2019 | 1,279 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 41% | 50% | - | - | 1% | 6% |
St. Pete Polls | Jun 15–16, 2019 | 3,095 (LV) | ± 1.8% | 47% | 47% | - | - | – | 6% |
Florida Atlantic University | May 16–19, 2019 | 1,007 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 50% | - | - | – | – |
WPA Intelligence | Apr 27–30, 2019 | 200 (LV) | ± 6.9% | 48% | 44% | - | - | – | 7% |
Former candidates
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Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg
Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar
Donald Trump vs. Beto O'Rourke
Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders
Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren
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Hypothetical polling
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with Donald Trump and Oprah Winfrey
with Donald Trump and generic Democrat
with Donald Trump and generic Opponent
with Mike Pence and Joe Biden
with Mike Pence and Elizabeth Warren
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Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
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Republican | Donald Trump and Mike Pence | ||||
Democratic | Joe Biden and Kamala Harris | ||||
Libertarian | Jo Jorgensen and Spike Cohen | ||||
Green | Howie Hawkins and Angela Walker | ||||
Constitution | Don Blankenship and William Mohr | ||||
Reform | Rocky De La Fuente and Darcy Richardson | ||||
Socialism and Liberation | Gloria La Riva and Sunil Freeman | ||||
Total votes |
Primary elections
The primary elections were held on March 17, 2020.
Republican primary
The Florida secretary of state declared Rocky De La Fuente to be a major candidate and thus worthy of automatic inclusion on the ballot.
Democratic primary
Three Democrats were still in race by the time Florida held its primaries: Vermont senator Bernie Sanders, former vice president Joe Biden, and representative from Hawaii Tulsi Gabbard.[23][24][25]
The first Democratic debate took place in Miami over two nights at the end of June 2019. It was broadcast on several of the NBC networks.[26]
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See also
- 2020 United States presidential election
- 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2020 United States elections
Notes
- ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ↑ 2.00 2.01 2.02 2.03 2.04 2.05 2.06 2.07 2.08 2.09 2.10 2.11 2.12 Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ↑ "Third party" with 2%
- ↑ "Neither" with 1%; "other" and would not vote with no voters
- ↑ "Someone else/third party" with 1%
- ↑ "Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
- ↑ "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
- ↑ "No one" with 1%
- ↑ With a likely voter turnout model featuring higher turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
- ↑ "Other" with 1%
- ↑ With a likely voter turnout model featuring lower turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
- ↑ "Other" with 1%
- ↑ "Someone else" with 2%; "Refused" and would not vote with 1%
- ↑ "Someone else" with 0%
- ↑ "Third party" with 2%
- ↑ Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
- ↑ "Other/not sure" with 4%
- ↑ "Another Party Candidate" with 1.3%
- ↑ "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
- ↑ "Someone else" with 1%
- ↑ "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
- ↑ "Refused" with 1%
- ↑ "Other" with 1%; "Neither" 1%
- ↑ "Another third party/write-in" with 1%
- ↑ "Someone else" with 4%; would not vote with 2%
- ↑ "Third-party candidate" with 2%
- ↑ "Someone else/third party" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
- ↑ "Other party candidate" with 5%
- ↑ Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
- ↑ "Other" with 4%; would not vote with 2%
- ↑ "Another candidate" and would not vote with 2%
- ↑ Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
- ↑ "Libertarian Party candidate/Green Party candidate" with 3%
- ↑ Not yet released
- ↑ "Other" with 3%; "prefer not to answer" with 1%
- ↑ Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
- ↑ "Third party candidate" with 3.3%
- ↑ "Third party" with 2.7%
- ↑ "Libertarian nominee" with 1.2%
- ↑ "Green nominee" with 0.4%
- ↑ "Third party/write-in" with 3%
- ↑ Wouldn't vote with 6%
- ↑ Wouldn't vote with 7%
- ↑ Wouldn't vote with 8%
- ↑ Wouldn't vote with 6%
- ↑ Poll sponsored by the League of Conservation Voters
- ↑ "Would definitely not vote for Trump" with 51%
- ↑ "Consider voting for Trump" with 14%; "don't know/no answer" with 4%
- ↑ Wouldn't vote with 8%
- ↑ Wouldn't vote with 8%
- Partisan clients
- ↑ The Consumer Energy Alliance is a pro-Keystone XL lobbying group
- ↑ Heritage Action is the sister organisation of the Heritage Foundation, which exclusively endorses Republican candidates
- ↑ This poll's sponsor, the American Greatness PAC, is pro-Trump
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 Poll sponsored by the Florida Chamber of Commerce PAC
References
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- ↑ https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/09/11/us/trump-vs-biden
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- ↑ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
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Further reading
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