2020 United States presidential election in Florida

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2020 United States presidential election in Florida

← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →
Turnout %
  Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg 160x160px
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida Delaware
Running mate Mike Pence Kamala Harris

Incumbent President

Donald Trump
Republican



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The 2020 United States presidential election in Florida is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate.[1] Florida voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Florida has 29 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]

Miami Beach, Florida, which hosted the 1972 Democratic National Convention, was a finalist to host the 2020 Democratic National Convention.[3] The other finalists were Milwaukee and Houston. Milwaukee was ultimately decided as the host.[4][5] Florida will be incumbent president Donald Trump's home state for this election, after having identified New York as his home in 2016.[6] As a result, Trump became the first nominee of either major party to be from Florida. Vice President Joe Biden was selected as the Democratic Party's presidential nominee in the 2020 Florida Democratic presidential primary on March 17, 2020.

United States Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit, located in Atlanta, ruled that ex-felons could not vote in Florida unless they pay fines and fees. Florida voters approved amendment 4 in November 2018, which restored voting for felons except for those who committed murders or were involved in sex-crimes. The Republican-controlled legislature then passed a law which required ex-felons to settle their financial obligation in courts. United States District Court in Tallahassee ruled against it in May, but the circuit court overturned it in September, which may create further problems for ex-felons to exercise their voting rights in November. Civil rights organizations including American Civil Liberties Union opposed the decision by the court.[7]

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[8] Tossup September 10, 2020
Inside Elections[9] Tilt D (flip) September 4, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[10] Tossup July 14, 2020
Politico[11] Tossup September 8, 2020
RCP[12] Tossup August 3, 2020
Niskanen[13] Likely D (flip) September 15, 2020
CNN[14] Tossup August 3, 2020
The Economist[15] Lean D (flip) September 2, 2020
CBS News[16] Tossup August 16, 2020
270towin[17] Tossup August 2, 2020
ABC News[18] Lean D (flip) July 31, 2020
NPR[19] Lean D (flip) August 3, 2020
NBC News[20] Lean D (flip) August 6, 2020
538[21] Tilt D (flip) September 9, 2020

Polling

Graphical summary

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Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Donald
Trump

Republican
Other/
Undecided[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
270 to Win August 30 – September 8, 2020 September 12, 2020 48.4% 46.2% 5.4% Biden +2.2
Real Clear Politics August 28 – September 8, 2020 September 12, 2020 48.2% 47.0% 4.8% Biden +1.2
FiveThirtyEight until September 8, 2020 September 12, 2020 48.6% 45.9% 5.5% Biden +2.7
Average 48.4% 46.4% 5.2% Biden +2.0

State polls

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump

Republican
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Jo
Jorgensen

Libertarian
Howie
Hawkins

Green
Other Undecided
St. Pete Polls Sep 21–22, 2020 2,906 (LV) ± 1.8% 47% 50% - - 2%[lower-alpha 3] 2%
Change Research/CNBC Sep 18–20, 2020 702 (LV) 46% 49% - -
ABC/Washington Post Sep 15–20, 2020 613 (LV) ± 4.5% 51% 47% - - 1%[lower-alpha 4] 1%
YouGov/CBS Sep 15–18, 2020 1,205 (LV) ± 3.7% 46% 48% - - 1%[lower-alpha 5] 5%
Ipsos/Reuters Sep 11–17, 2020 586 (LV) ± 4.6% 47% 47% - - 2%[lower-alpha 6] 4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Sep 12–14, 2020 1,158 (LV) ± 2.88% 44% 47% 1% 1% 1%[lower-alpha 7] 6%
Monmouth University Sep 10–13, 2020 428 (RV) ± 4.7% 45% 50% 2% 0% 1%[lower-alpha 8] 3%
428 (LV) 45%[lower-alpha 9] 50% - - 1%[lower-alpha 10] 3%
46%[lower-alpha 11] 49% - - 1%[lower-alpha 12] 3%
Kaiser Family Foundation/Cook Political Report Aug 29 – Sep 13, 2020 1,009 (RV) ± 4.0% 42% 43% - - 4%[lower-alpha 13] 11%
Florida Atlantic University Sep 11–12, 2020 631 (LV) ± 3.8% 50% 50% - - 0%[lower-alpha 14]
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics/AARP Sep 7–8, 2020 2,689 (LV) ± 1.9% 47% 50% - - 2%[lower-alpha 15] 2%
Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group/AARP[1] Aug 30 – Sep 8, 2020 1,600 (LV) ± 2.5% 46% 48% - - 6%
Morning Consult Aug 29 – Sep 7, 2020 3,914 (LV) ± (2%-4%) 43%[lower-alpha 16] 50% - -
Change Research/CNBC Sep 4–6, 2020 1,144 (LV) 46% 49% - - 4%[lower-alpha 17]
Marist College/NBC Aug 31 – Sep 5, 2020 760 (LV) ± 4.5% 48% 48% - - 1% 2%
Trafalgar Group Sep 1–3, 2020 1,022 (LV) ± 2.99% 48.7% 45.6% 2.2% - 1.3%[lower-alpha 18] 2.3%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Aug 30 – Sep 3, 2020 1,093 (LV) ± 2.96% 43% 48% 1% 1% 1%[lower-alpha 19] 6%
GQR Research (D) Aug 26 - Sep 3, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 46% 51% - -
Quinnipiac Aug 28 – Sep 1, 2020 1,235 (LV) ± 2.8% 45% 48% - - 1%[lower-alpha 20] 5%
Morning Consult Aug 21–30, 2020 3,790 (LV) ± (2%–4%) 47% 49% - -
Opinium/The Guardian[2] Aug 21–26, 2020 684 (LV) 43% 50% - - 1% 6%
Change Research/CNBC Aug 21–23, 2020 1,262 (LV) 46% 49% - -
PPP Aug 21–22, 2020 671 (V) ± 3.8% 44% 48% - - 7%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies Aug 16, 2020 1,280 (LV) 41% Template:Party shading/Democrat|49% 1% - 1%[lower-alpha 21] 7%
Morning Consult Aug 7–16, 2020 3,484 (LV) ± (2%–4%) 45% 50% - -
Tyson Group/Consumer Energy Alliance[upper-alpha 1] Aug 11–15, 2020 750 (LV) ± 4% 44% 46% 2% - 1%[lower-alpha 22] 6%
Change Research/CNBC Aug 7–9, 2020 469 (LV) 44% Template:Party shading/Democrat|50% - -
OnMessage Inc./Heritage Action[upper-alpha 2] Aug 2–4, 2020 400 (LV) 49% 49% - - 2%
Change Research/CNBC[3] Jul 24–26, 2020 685 (LV) 45% 48% - -
Morning Consult Jul 17–26, 2020 3,760 (LV) ± 1.6% 46% 49% - -
CNN/SSRS Jul 18–24, 2020 880 (RV) ± 3.8% 46% 51% - - 2%[lower-alpha 23] 2%
Zogby Analytics Jul 21–23, 2020 811 (RV) ± 3.4% 43% 43% 3% 2% 9%
Mason-Dixon Jul 20–23, 2020 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 46% 50% - - 4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Jul 19–21, 2020 1,121 (RV) 41% 48% 1% 1% 1%[lower-alpha 24] 8%
Quinnipiac University Jul 16–20, 2020 924 (RV) ± 4.3% 38% 51% - - 6%[lower-alpha 25] 5%
Florida Politics/AARP Florida/St. Pete Polls Jul 13–14, 2020 3,018 (RV) ± 1.8% 44% 50% - - 2%[lower-alpha 26] 3%
Gravis Marketing Jul 13, 2020 513 (LV) ± 4.3% 43% 53% - - 4%
Change Research/CNBC Jul 10–12, 2020 1,128 (LV) 43% 50% - -
YouGov/CBS Jul 7–10, 2020 1,206 (LV) ± 3.6% 42% 48% - - 2%[lower-alpha 27] 8%
Trafalgar Group Jun 29 – Jul 2, 2020 1,072 (LV) ± 2.91% 46% 46% - - 5%[lower-alpha 28] 3%
Change Research/CNBC Jun 26–28, 2020 951 (LV)[lower-alpha 29] 45% 50% - -
Fox News Jun 20–23, 2020 1,010 (RV) ± 3% 40% 49% - - 6%[lower-alpha 30] 6%
NYT Upshot/Siena College Jun 8–18, 2020 651 (RV) ± 4.6% 41% 47% - - 4%[lower-alpha 31] 7%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Jun 14–15, 2020 1,079 (LV) ± 2.98% 41% 45% 1% 1% 1% 11%
Change Research/CNBC Jun 12–14, 2020 713 (LV)[lower-alpha 32] 43% 50% - - 3%[lower-alpha 33]
Gravis Marketing/OANN Released Jun 11, 2020 [lower-alpha 34] 50% 50% - -
TIPP/American Greatness PAC[upper-alpha 3] Jun 9–11, 2020 875 (LV) 40% 51% - - 4%[lower-alpha 35] 5%
Change Research/CNBC May 29–31, 2020 1,186 (LV)[lower-alpha 36] 45% 48% - - 2% 4%
Cygnal (R) May 18–30, 2020 881 (LV) ± 3.3% 43.8% 47% - - 3.3%[lower-alpha 37] 5.9%
St. Pete Polls May 26–27, 2020 4,763 (RV) ± 1.4% 46.7% 47.5% - - 2.7%[lower-alpha 38] 3.1%
Morning Consult May 17-26, 2020 3,593 (LV) 48% 47%
Point Blank Political May 14–17, 2020 2,149 (LV) ± 3.5% 44% 45% 1%[lower-alpha 39] <1%[lower-alpha 40] 2% 8%
Point Blank Political May 14–17, 2020 2,149 (LV) ± 3.5% 48% 52% - -
Redfield & Wilton Strategies May 10–14, 2020 1,014 (LV) ± 3.1% 43% 45% - - 3%[lower-alpha 41] 10%
Florida Atlantic University May 8–12, 2020 928 (RV) ± 3.1% 47% 53% - -
Fox News Apr 18–21, 2020 1,004 (RV) ± 3.0% 43% 46% - - 3% 7%
Quinnipiac University Apr 16–20, 2020 1,385 (RV) ± 2.6% 42% 46% - - 3% 7%
St. Pete Polls Apr 16–17, 2020 5,659 (RV) ± 1.3% 48% 48% - - 4%
University of North Florida Mar 31 – Apr 4, 2020 3,244 (RV) ± 1.7% 40% 46% - - 8%
AtlasIntel Mar 14–16, 2020 1,100 (RV) ± 3.0% 45% 45% - - 10%
Univision Mar 6–12, 2020 1,071 (RV) ± 3.0% 48% 45% - - 7%
Florida Atlantic University Mar 5–7, 2020 1,216 (RV) ± 2.7% 51% 49% - -
Saint Leo University Feb 17–22, 2020 900 (LV) ± 3.5% 40% 51% - - 8%
University of North Florida Feb 10–18, 2020 668 (RV) 48% 49% - - 3%
Florida Atlantic University Jan 9–12, 2020 1,285 (RV) ± 2.6% 49% 51% - -
Cherry Communications/Florida Chamber of Commerce[upper-alpha 4] Jan 3–12, 2020 608 (LV) ± 4% 49% 45% - -
Mason-Dixon Dec 11–16, 2019 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 45% 47% - - 8%
NYT Upshot/Siena College Oct 13–26, 2019 650 (LV) ± 4.4% 44% 46% - -
University of North Florida Oct 14–20, 2019 643 (RV) ± 3.8% 43% 48% - - 6%[lower-alpha 42] 3%
Florida Atlantic University Sep 12–15, 2019 934 (RV) ± 3.1% 50.5% 49.5% - -
Quinnipiac University Jun 12–17, 2019 1,279 (RV) ± 3.3% 41% 50% - - 1% 6%
St. Pete Polls Jun 15–16, 2019 3,095 (LV) ± 1.8% 47% 47% - - 6%
Florida Atlantic University May 16–19, 2019 1,007 (RV) ± 3.0% 50% 50% - -
WPA Intelligence Apr 27–30, 2019 200 (LV) ± 6.9% 48% 44% - - 7%
Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Michael
Bloomberg (D)
Other Undecided
Saint Leo University Feb 17–22, 2020 900 (LV) ± 3.5% 36% 52% 12%
University of North Florida Feb 10–18, 2020 672 (RV) 44% 50% 6%
Cherry Communications/Florida Chamber of Commerce[upper-alpha 4] Jan 3–12, 2020 608 (LV) ± 4% 49% 44%

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Pete
Buttigieg (D)
Other Undecided
Saint Leo University Feb 17–22, 2020 900 (LV) ± 3.5% 40% 45% 15%
University of North Florida Feb 10–18, 2020 664 (RV) 49% 45% 7%
Florida Atlantic University Jan 9–12, 2020 1,285 (RV) ± 2.6% 50% 50%
Cherry Communications/Florida Chamber of Commerce[upper-alpha 4] Jan 3–12, 2020 608 (LV) ± 4% 50% 43%
Mason-Dixon Dec 11–16, 2019 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 49% 45% 6%
University of North Florida Oct 14–20, 2019 643 (RV) ± 3.8% 43% 42% 7%[lower-alpha 43] 9%
Quinnipiac University Jun 12–17, 2019 1,279 (RV) ± 3.3% 43% 44% 1% 9%
Florida Atlantic University May 16–19, 2019 1,007 (RV) ± 3.0% 52% 48%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Kamala
Harris (D)
Other Undecided
University of North Florida Oct 14–20, 2019 643 (RV) ± 3.8% 44% 41% 8%[lower-alpha 44] 7%
Florida Atlantic University Sep 12–15, 2019 934 (RV) ± 3.1% 52% 48%
Quinnipiac University Jun 12–17, 2019 1,279 (RV) ± 3.3% 44% 45% 1% 7%
Florida Atlantic University May 16–19, 2019 1,007 (RV) ± 3.0% 53% 47%

Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Amy
Klobuchar (D)
Other Undecided
Saint Leo University Feb 17–22, 2020 900 (LV) ± 3.5% 41% 43% 16%
University of North Florida Feb 10–18, 2020 662 (RV) 48% 44% 8%

Donald Trump vs. Beto O'Rourke

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Beto
O'Rourke (D)
Other Undecided
Quinnipiac University Jun 12–17, 2019 1,279 (RV) ± 3.3% 44% 45% 1% 7%

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Bernie
Sanders (D)
Other Undecided
AtlasIntel Mar 14–16, 2020 1,100 (RV) ± 3.0% 48% 41% 11%
Univision Mar 6–12, 2020 1,071 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 42% 8%
Florida Atlantic University Mar 5–7, 2020 1,216 (LV) ± 2.7% 53% 47%
Saint Leo University Feb 17–22, 2020 900 (LV) ± 3.5% 40% 49% 11%
University of North Florida Feb 10–18, 2020 671 (RV) 48% 48% 4%
Florida Atlantic University Jan 9–12, 2020 1,285 (RV) ± 2.6% 47% 53%
Mason-Dixon Dec 11–16, 2019 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 49% 44% 7%
NYT Upshot/Siena College Oct 13–26, 2019 650 (LV) ± 4.4% 45% 44%
Florida Atlantic University Sep 12–15, 2019 934 ± 3.1% 50.5% 49.5%
Quinnipiac University Jun 12–17, 2019 1,279 (RV) ± 3.3% 42% 48% 1% 6%
Florida Atlantic University May 16–19, 2019 1,007 ± 3.0% 51% 49%

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Other Undecided
Saint Leo University Feb 17–22, 2020 900 (LV) ± 3.5% 42% 44% 14%
University of North Florida Feb 10–18, 2020 661 (RV) 47% 47% 6%
Florida Atlantic University Jan 9–12, 2020 1,285 (RV) ± 2.6% 49% 51%
Cherry Communications/Florida Chamber of Commerce[upper-alpha 4] Jan 3–12, 2020 608 (LV) ± 4% 50% 43%
Mason-Dixon Dec 11–16, 2019 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 51% 42% 7%
NYT Upshot/Siena College Oct 13–26, 2019 650 (LV) ± 4.4% 46% 42%
University of North Florida Oct 14–20, 2019 643 (RV) ± 3.8% 43% 46% 6%[lower-alpha 45] 6%
Florida Atlantic University Sep 12–15, 2019 934 ± 3.1% 50% 50%
Quinnipiac University Jun 12–17, 2019 1,279 (RV) ± 3.3% 43% 47% 1% 6%
Florida Atlantic University May 16–19, 2019 1,007 ± 3.0% 52% 48%
Zogby Analytics Aug 17–23, 2017 828 (LV) ± 3.4% 39% 48% 14%
Hypothetical polling

with Donald Trump and Oprah Winfrey

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Oprah
Winfrey (D)
Other Undecided
Dixie Strategies Jan 9–10, 2018 785 (LV) ± 3.5% 48% 24% 15% 13%

with Donald Trump and generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Generic
Democrat
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[lower-alpha 46] Jun 14–16, 2019 679 (V) ± 3.8% 44% 51% 6%
Mason-Dixon Jan 14–17, 2019 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 45% 46% 9%

with Donald Trump and generic Opponent

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Generic
Opponent
Undecided
Quinnipiac University Mar 6–11, 2019 1,058 (V) ± 3.7% 31% 51%[lower-alpha 47] 18%[lower-alpha 48]

with Mike Pence and Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Mike
Pence (R)
Joe
Biden (D)
Other Undecided
University of North Florida Oct 14–20, 2019 643 (RV) ± 3.8% 39% 49% 8%[lower-alpha 49] 5%

with Mike Pence and Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Mike
Pence (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Other Undecided
University of North Florida Oct 14–20, 2019 643 (RV) ± 3.8% 40% 46% 8%[lower-alpha 50] 6%

Results

2020 United States presidential election in Florida[22]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Donald Trump and Mike Pence
Democratic Joe Biden and Kamala Harris
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen and Spike Cohen
Green Howie Hawkins and Angela Walker
Constitution Don Blankenship and William Mohr
Reform Rocky De La Fuente and Darcy Richardson
Socialism and Liberation Gloria La Riva and Sunil Freeman
Total votes

Primary elections

The primary elections were held on March 17, 2020.

Republican primary

The Florida secretary of state declared Rocky De La Fuente to be a major candidate and thus worthy of automatic inclusion on the ballot.

page-not-found

Democratic primary

Three Democrats were still in race by the time Florida held its primaries: Vermont senator Bernie Sanders, former vice president Joe Biden, and representative from Hawaii Tulsi Gabbard.[23][24][25]

The first Democratic debate took place in Miami over two nights at the end of June 2019. It was broadcast on several of the NBC networks.[26]

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See also

Notes

  1. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. 2.00 2.01 2.02 2.03 2.04 2.05 2.06 2.07 2.08 2.09 2.10 2.11 2.12 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. "Third party" with 2%
  4. "Neither" with 1%; "other" and would not vote with no voters
  5. "Someone else/third party" with 1%
  6. "Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
  7. "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
  8. "No one" with 1%
  9. With a likely voter turnout model featuring higher turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  10. "Other" with 1%
  11. With a likely voter turnout model featuring lower turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  12. "Other" with 1%
  13. "Someone else" with 2%; "Refused" and would not vote with 1%
  14. "Someone else" with 0%
  15. "Third party" with 2%
  16. Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  17. "Other/not sure" with 4%
  18. "Another Party Candidate" with 1.3%
  19. "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
  20. "Someone else" with 1%
  21. "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
  22. "Refused" with 1%
  23. "Other" with 1%; "Neither" 1%
  24. "Another third party/write-in" with 1%
  25. "Someone else" with 4%; would not vote with 2%
  26. "Third-party candidate" with 2%
  27. "Someone else/third party" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
  28. "Other party candidate" with 5%
  29. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  30. "Other" with 4%; would not vote with 2%
  31. "Another candidate" and would not vote with 2%
  32. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  33. "Libertarian Party candidate/Green Party candidate" with 3%
  34. Not yet released
  35. "Other" with 3%; "prefer not to answer" with 1%
  36. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  37. "Third party candidate" with 3.3%
  38. "Third party" with 2.7%
  39. "Libertarian nominee" with 1.2%
  40. "Green nominee" with 0.4%
  41. "Third party/write-in" with 3%
  42. Wouldn't vote with 6%
  43. Wouldn't vote with 7%
  44. Wouldn't vote with 8%
  45. Wouldn't vote with 6%
  46. Poll sponsored by the League of Conservation Voters
  47. "Would definitely not vote for Trump" with 51%
  48. "Consider voting for Trump" with 14%; "don't know/no answer" with 4%
  49. Wouldn't vote with 8%
  50. Wouldn't vote with 8%
Partisan clients
  1. The Consumer Energy Alliance is a pro-Keystone XL lobbying group
  2. Heritage Action is the sister organisation of the Heritage Foundation, which exclusively endorses Republican candidates
  3. This poll's sponsor, the American Greatness PAC, is pro-Trump
  4. 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 Poll sponsored by the Florida Chamber of Commerce PAC

References

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  7. https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/09/11/us/trump-vs-biden
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  13. 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
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Further reading

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