2020 United States presidential election in Montana

2020 United States presidential election in Montana
Turnout	%
Incumbent President; Donald Trump; Republican	; ;

The 2020 United States presidential election in Montana is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate.^[1] Montana voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Montana has 3 electoral votes in the Electoral College.^[2]

By the time that the primary elections were held in the state on June 2, 2020, incumbent President Donald Trump was already the Republican Party's presumptive nominee, being the only viable declared major candidate left. On the Democratic Party's side, Vice President Joe Biden became the presumptive nominee after Senator Bernie Sanders, his last competitor, withdrew on April 8, 2020. The Libertarian Party, which received over 5% of the vote in 2016, already held its 2020 Libertarian National Convention from May 21 to May 25, nominating Jo Jorgensen.

Montana Governor Steve Bullock was a candidate until he withdrew from the Democratic primary on December 2, 2019.

Primary elections

The primary elections were held on June 2, 2020.

Republican primary

Donald Trump ran unopposed in the Republican primary, and thus received all of the state's 27 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.^[3]

Democratic primary

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Libertarian nominee

The 2020 Libertarian National Convention was held on May 22–24, 2020, selecting Jo Jorgensen, Psychology Senior Lecturer at Clemson University, as their presidential nominee.

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[4]	Likely R	September 10, 2020
Inside Elections^[5]	Lean R	September 4, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[6]	Likely R	July 14, 2020
Politico^[7]	Likely R	September 8, 2020
RCP^[8]	Lean R	August 3, 2020
Niskanen^[9]	Likely R	July 26, 2020
CNN^[10]	Safe R	August 3, 2020
The Economist^[11]	Likely R	September 2, 2020
CBS News^[12]	Likely R	August 16, 2020
270towin^[13]	Likely R	August 2, 2020
ABC News^[14]	Lean R	July 31, 2020
NPR^[15]	Likely R	August 3, 2020
NBC News^[16]	Likely R	August 6, 2020
538^[17]	Lean R	September 9, 2020

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Joe Biden	Donald Trump	Other/Undecided^{[lower-alpha 1]}	Margin
270 to Win	August 22 – September 5, 2020	September 12, 2020	43.5%	49.0%	7.5%	Trump +5.5
FiveThirtyEight	until September 5, 2020	September 12, 2020	43.2%	51.5%	5.3%	Trump +8.3

Polls

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^{[lower-alpha 2]}	Margin of error	Donald Trump (R)	Joe Biden (D)	Other	Undecided
Siena College/NYT Upshot	Sep 14–16, 2020	625 (LV)	± 4.8%	49%	42%	9%^{[lower-alpha 3]}	–
Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates/AARP [1]	Aug 30 – Sep 5, 2020	800 (LV)	± < 4%	50%	43%	–	–
Expedition Strategies/House Majority PAC^{[upper-alpha 1]}	Aug 22–27, 2020	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	48%	44%	–	7%^{[lower-alpha 4]}
Emerson College	Jul 31 – Aug 2, 2020	584 (LV)	± 4.0%	54%^{[lower-alpha 5]}	46%	–	–
Public Policy Polling/AFSCME^{[upper-alpha 2]}	Jul 23–24, 2020	917 (V)	–	50%	45%	–	5%
Spry Strategies/American Principles Project^{[upper-alpha 3]}	Jul 11–16, 2020	700 (LV)	± 3.7%	52%	42%	–	6%
Civiqs/Daily Kos	Jul 11–13, 2020	873 (RV)	± 4.2%	49%	45%	5%^{[lower-alpha 6]}	1%
Public Policy Polling/Election Twitter	Jul 9–10, 2020	1,224 (V)	± 2.8%	51%	42%	–	7%
University of Montana	Jun 17–26, 2020	517 (RV)	± 4.3%	52%	38%	–	10%
Montana State University Bozeman	Apr 10–27, 2020	459 (LV)	± 4.6%	45%	40%	11%	5%
The Progress Campaign (D)	Apr 14–21, 2020	1,712 (RV)	± 4.6%	51%	42%	–	7%^{[lower-alpha 7]}
University of Montana	Feb 12–22, 2020	498 (LV)	± 4.4%	56%	34%	–	10%
University of Montana	Sep 26 – Oct 3, 2019	303 (RV)	± 5.6%	54%	47%	–	–

Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^{[lower-alpha 2]}	Margin of error	Donald Trump (R)	Michael Bloomberg (D)	Undecided
University of Montana	Feb 12–22, 2020	498 (LV)	± 4.4%	55%	31%	15%

Donald Trump vs. Steve Bullock

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^{[lower-alpha 2]}	Margin of error	Donald Trump (R)	Steve Bullock (D)
University of Montana	Sep 26 – Oct 3, 2019	303 (RV)	± 5.6%	48%	52%

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^{[lower-alpha 2]}	Margin of error	Donald Trump (R)	Pete Buttigieg (D)	Undecided
University of Montana	Feb 12–22, 2020	498 (LV)	± 4.4%	52%	35%	13%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^{[lower-alpha 2]}	Margin of error	Donald Trump (R)	Kamala Harris (D)
University of Montana	Sep 26 – Oct 3, 2019	303 (RV)	± 5.6%	55%	45%

Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^{[lower-alpha 2]}	Margin of error	Donald Trump (R)	Amy Klobuchar (D)	Undecided
University of Montana	Feb 12–22, 2020	498 (LV)	± 4.4%	53%	31%	15%

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^{[lower-alpha 2]}	Margin of error	Donald Trump (R)	Bernie Sanders (D)	Undecided
University of Montana	Feb 12–22, 2020	498 (LV)	± 4.4%	56%	34%	9%
University of Montana	Sep 26 – Oct 3, 2019	303 (RV)	± 5.6%	54%	46%	–

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^{[lower-alpha 2]}	Margin of error	Donald Trump (R)	Elizabeth Warren (D)	Undecided
University of Montana	Feb 12–22, 2020	498 (LV)	± 4.4%	57%	33%	10%
University of Montana	Sep 26 – Oct 3, 2019	303 (RV)	± 5.6%	54%	46%	–
Zogby Analytics	Aug 17–23, 2017	403 (LV)	± 4.9%	45%	39%	17%

Hypothetical polling

Donald Trump vs. Generic Democrat

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^{[lower-alpha 2]}	Margin of error	Donald Trump (R)	Generic Democrat (D)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	Mar 12–13, 2020	903 (V)	± 3.3%	52%	44%	4%

with Cory Booker, Kirsten Gillibrand, Kamala Harris, John Kasich, Beto O'Rourke, Bernie Sanders, Howard Schultz and Elizabeth Warren

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^{[lower-alpha 2]}	Margin of error	Joe Biden (D)	Bernie Sanders (D)	Donald Trump (R)	Other
University of Montana	Feb 21 – Mar 1, 2019	293 (RV)	± 5.72%	14.7%	8.4%	40%	36.8%^{[lower-alpha 8]}

Results

2020 United States presidential election in Montana^[18]
Party		Candidate
	Republican	Donald Trump and Mike Pence
	Democratic	Joe Biden and Kamala Harris
	Libertarian	Jo Jorgensen and Spike Cohen
Total votes

Notes

↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
↑ ^2.0 ^2.1 ^2.2 ^2.3 ^2.4 ^2.5 ^2.6 ^2.7 ^2.8 ^2.9 Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
↑ "Refused" with 5%; Jorgensen (L) with 2%; Hawkins (G) and would not vote with 1%; "someone else" with 0%
↑ Includes "Refused"
↑ Including voters who lean towards a given candidate
↑ "Someone else" with 5%
↑ Listed as "other/not sure"
↑ "Someone else" with 11.6%; Warren with 5%; "none/do not plan to vote" with 4%; Kasich with 4.4%; Harris with 3.8%; O'Rourke with 3.4%; Booker with 2.4%; Gillibrand with 1% Schultz with 1.2%

Partisan clients

↑ The House Majority PAC exclusively supports Democratic candidates
↑ This poll's sponsor, AFSCME, had endorsed Biden prior to the sampling period
↑ This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501(c)(4) organization that supports the Republican Party.

References

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↑ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
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[18] Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.

[key-19] 2.0 ^2.1 ^2.2 ^2.3 ^2.4 ^2.5 ^2.6 ^2.7 ^2.8 ^2.9 Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear

[20] "Refused" with 5%; Jorgensen (L) with 2%; Hawkins (G) and would not vote with 1%; "someone else" with 0%

[22] Includes "Refused"

[23] Including voters who lean towards a given candidate

[26] "Someone else" with 5%

[27] Listed as "other/not sure"

[28] "Someone else" with 11.6%; Warren with 5%; "none/do not plan to vote" with 4%; Kasich with 4.4%; Harris with 3.8%; O'Rourke with 3.4%; Booker with 2.4%; Gillibrand with 1% Schultz with 1.2%

[21] The House Majority PAC exclusively supports Democratic candidates

[24] This poll's sponsor, AFSCME, had endorsed Biden prior to the sampling period

[25] This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501(c)(4) organization that supports the Republican Party.

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[niskanen-9] 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020

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2020 United States presidential election in Montana

Contents

Primary elections

Republican primary

Democratic primary

Libertarian nominee

General election

Predictions

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Polls

Results

See also

Notes

References

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