Anthropic shadow

An anthropic shadow is a theoretical implication of the anthropic principle. It is a cataclysm that never happened, though it may appear that it should have happened. However, if the cataclysm had happened, the observer noticing its absence would likely never have existed.

Meaning

If the existence of observers in most possible universes turns out to be precarious, then surviving observers might notice that one or more unlikely coincidences are responsible for their existence. These coincidences might merely be the absence of expected misfortune. The detection of such anthropic shadows could then be used to make limited statistical inferences about the existence of other universes. These might also cast doubt on the observers continued existence.

Observer bias

Most anthropic shadows would only affect individual observers or small groups, however. Very old persons might notice they had unusually few accidents or diseases. This might give them an optimistic attitude towards life, but it would be a case of selection bias. The success of the United States might be explained by cataclysms that damaged most other countries.

Examples

• The peaceful resolution of the Cuban missile crisis prevented a nuclear war that would have reduced the number of future observers. Also the successful handling of the 1983 Soviet nuclear false alarm incident or other nuclear close calls.

• The arguably unlikely absence of major volcanic eruptions that could have eradicated primitive humans during prehistory, for example the Toba supervolcano, or the absence of a major eruption of the Yellowstone caldera during that time.

• The apparent complete absence of extraterrestrial intelligence may suggest different intelligences have trouble co-existing, or that some catastrophe generally prevents them from evolving in the first place.

• In artificial intelligence research, the early perceptron networks first developed in the 1950s could have led to Deep Learning breakthroughs several decades sooner. They fell out of favor for seemingly arbitrary reasons, leading to an AI Winter that delayed the invention of general artificial intelligence technology that might eliminate or replace mankind.

• The defeat of Chiang Kai-shek's Chinese Nationalist forces by Mao Zedong's Communist forces may have delayed Chinese economic development by several decades, thereby also delaying human technological progress by many years, and possibly delaying human replacement or extinction.

Also see

• Quantum immortality

• Doomsday argument