Brazilian general election, 2018
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The next Brazilian general elections are scheduled for 2018, and will elect the President, the National Congress, state governors and state legislatures. However, due to the ongoing political crisis and calls for the impeachment of incumbent President Dilma Rousseff for her alleged involvement in the so-called Petrolão scandals,[1][2][3] the elections may be held sooner if the process ends with the nullification of the previous election by the end of 2016.
The previous presidential election in Brazil was held in October 2014. Supported by the left-wing Workers' Party, Dilma Rousseff was elected in the second round of voting, with 51.6% of the vote, against 48.4% for her main challenger, Aécio Neves of the centrist Brazilian Social Democracy Party. Rousseff was first elected in the 2010 presidential election, succeeding her political mentor and fellow petista, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, in office from 2003 to 2011.
Contents
Electoral system
Presidential elections
The president of Brazil is elected using the two-round system. Citizens may field their candidacies for the presidency, and participate in the general elections, which are held on the first Sunday in October.[4] If the most-voted candidate takes more than 50% of the overall vote, he or she is declared elected. If the 50% threshold is not met by any candidate, a second round of voting is held on the last Sunday in October. In the second round, only the two most-voted candidates from the first round may participate. The winner of the second round is elected President of Brazil.
Congressional elections
Two-thirds of the 81 members of the Federal Senate will be elected, the other third having been elected in 2014. Two candidates will be elected from each of the States using majority block voting, with voters able to cast two votes each.[5] All 513 members of the Chamber of Deputies will be elected, with candidates elected from 27 multi-member constituencies based on the states, varying in size from eight to 70 seats. The Chamber elections are held using open list proportional representation, with seats allocated using the simple quotient.[6] Voting is mandatory and abstainers can be fined.[5]
Presidential candidates
Potential
- Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB), Governor of São Paulo since 2001.[7]
- Jair Bolsonaro (PSC), Federal Congressman from Rio de Janeiro since 1991.[8]
- Cristovam Buarque (PPS), governor of the Federal District 1995–1999.
- Ciro Gomes (PDT), Governor of Ceará 1991–1994.[9]
- Aécio Neves (PSDB), Senator from Minas Gerais since 2011.[7]
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), President of Brazil 2003–2011.[10]
- Marina Silva (PSB), Senator from Acre 1995–2011.
Opinion polling
Since the previous election, various polling companies have published surveys tracking voting intention for the next presidential election. The results of these surveys are listed below in reverse chronological order, and include candidates with frequently poll above 3% of the vote, as well as the current Acting President of Brazil Temer.
First round
| Polling Firm/Link | Last Date of Polling |
Sample Size |
PT | PDT | PSB | REDE | PMDB | PSDB | PSC | Others | Abst./ Undec. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Datafolha | April 8, 2016 | 2,779 | 22% (Lula) |
8% (Gomes) |
– | 23% (Silva) |
2% (Temer) |
9% (Alckmin) |
8% (Bolsonaro) |
4% | 24% |
| 21% (Lula) |
7% (Gomes) |
– | 19% (Silva) |
2% (Temer) |
17% (Neves) |
7% (Bolsonaro) |
5% | 22% | |||
| 22% (Lula) |
7% (Gomes) |
– | 22% (Silva) |
2% (Temer) |
11% (Serra) |
7% (Bolsonaro) |
5% | 24% | |||
| 2014 election | October 5, 2014 | 115,122,611 | 41.6% (Dilma) |
– | 21.3% (Silva) |
– | – | 33.6% (Neves) |
0.8% (Pereira) |
2.7% | 21.1% |
References
- ↑ Three Outcomes For Brazil's Political Crisis Forbes, 22 October 2015
- ↑ Dilma Rousseff impeachment proceedings cheered as Brazil falls into economic tailspin The Washington Post, 18 January 2016
- ↑ Brazil elite profit from $3bn Petrobras scandal as laid-off workers pay the price The Guardian, 20 March 2015
- ↑ The Electoral System Library of Congress Country Studies
- ↑ 5.0 5.1 Electoral system IPU
- ↑ Electoral system IPU
- ↑ 7.0 7.1 Se Aécio Neves desistir de enfrentar Lula em 2018, Marconi Perillo pode se apresentar para a disputa Jornal Opção
- ↑ Jair Bolsonaro é apresentado como pré-candidato à Presidência da República (Portuguese)
- ↑ Ciro Gomes é anunciado como pré-candidato à Presidência da República em 2018 (Portuguese)
- ↑ Lula da Silva mulling return to Brazilian presidency in 2018 The Guardian, 29 February 2016
| Presidential elections | |
|---|---|
| Legislative elections | |
| Gubernatorial elections | |
| State elections | |
| Municipal elections | |
| Referendums | |
