Canning by-election, 2015

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File:Division of Canning 2010.png
The Division of Canning stretches from Kelmscott in the north to Wagerup in the south, including both country areas and parts of the Perth metropolitan area. It incorporates the entirety of the City of Armadale and the Shires of Boddington, Murray, Serpentine-Jarrahdale, and Waroona, as well as the southern portion of the City of Mandurah (including the Mandurah city centre).

The 2015 Canning by-election was held for the Australian House of Representatives on Saturday 19 September from 8 am to 6 pm WST. The by-election in the seat of Canning was triggered by the death of sitting Liberal MP Don Randall on 21 July 2015.[1]

Speaker of the House of Representatives Tony Smith issued the writ for the by-election on 17 August 2015. Due to the requirement that the by-election must be held with at least 33 days' notice, the date set for polling day was the earliest possible day for holding it: 19 September.[2] The electoral roll in Canning closed on 24 August and candidate nominations closed on 27 August.[3]

Twelve candidates contested the election.[4] Edith Cowan University political analyst Harry Phillips said despite the Liberals holding Canning since the 2001 election, it would still be a "hotly contested seat".[1]

Though the Turnbull Government was just four days old, their candidate Andrew Hastie retained the seat for the Liberals, despite having to rely on preferences after a substantial, though dampened, primary (−4.15%) and two-party (−6.55%) swing away from the Liberals − solidly less than the double-digit swings polls had predicted under an Abbott Government − however, some double-digit swings did eventuate among the suburban booths in the north of the seat. The Canning Liberal margin was reduced from safe to marginal status. Political analysts agreed the by-election was a "good outcome for both major parties".[5]

Candidates

12 candidates in ballot paper order[4]
Party Candidate Background
  Palmer United Vimal Sharma Mining executive for Mineralogy, stood for Cowan at the 2013 federal election.[6][7]
  Liberal Democrats Connor Whittle Draughtsman from Bunbury.[8]
  Pirate Michelle Allen Software development manager, contested the Senate in Western Australia at the 2014 special election.[9]
  Defence Veterans Greg Smith Public relations agent and athlete, former journalist and Australian Army major.[10]
  Animal Justice Katrina Love Lead Animal Justice candidate for the WA Senate election in 2013 and the 2014 WA special election.[11]
  Liberal Andrew Hastie Former SAS captain, resigned to contest the election, joined the Australian military in 2001 following the September 11 attacks.[11]
  Independent Teresa van Lieshout Perennial candidate, most recently at the 2014 Vasse state by-election finishing last of six on 1.4 percent.[11] A warrant has been issued for her arrest.[12]
  Labor Matt Keogh Commercial lawyer, President of the Western Australian Law Society until stepping down to contest the election. Member of the ALP since the age of 16.[13]
  Greens Vanessa Rauland Lecturer at Curtin University, renewable energy advocate and small business owner.[14]
  Family First Jim McCourt Candidate for Hasluck in 2010 and Fremantle in 2013.[11]
  Christians Jamie van Burgel Previously contested Canning in 2010, state Armadale in 2010 and 2013, and was lead Senate candidate for the Australian Christians in 2013.[11]
  Sustainable Population Angela Smith Environmental scientist. Law/Arts student at Murdoch University.[15]

How-to-vote cards

How-to-vote cards are distributed to voters at polling stations to provide information with how the candidate suggests preferences be allocated. Candidates and parties which suggested preferences are shown in each column of the table below.[16] The Sustainable Population Party ran an open card at this by-election.

Palmer United Liberal Democrats Pirate Defence Veterans Animal Justice Liberal van Lieshout Labor Greens Family First Christians Stable Population
Palmer 1 9 8 No card 7 6 No card 6 6 6 5
LDP 2 1 5 11 5 7 8 7 7
Pirate 3 2 1 3 7 8 2 11 10
ADVP 4 3 6 6 4 9 7 4 6
Animal Justice 5 4 2 1 9 10 3 9 9
Liberal 6 11 9 12 1 11 9 3 2
van Lieshout 7 5 12 10 12 12 12 5 4
Labor 8 10 7 5 10 1 4 8 11
Greens 9 12 3 2 11 2 1 12 12
Family First 10 6 10 9 3 3 10 1 3
Christians 11 7 11 8 2 4 11 2 1
SPP 12 8 4 4 8 5 5 10 8 1

Two-party-preferred history since 2001

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Main article: Electoral results for the Division of Canning
Election: 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013
Liberal: 50.4% 59.5% 55.6% 52.2% 61.8%
Labor: 49.6% 40.5% 44.4% 47.8% 38.2%

Result

Canning by-election, 2015[17][11]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Liberal Andrew Hastie 39,712 46.92 −4.15
Labor Matt Keogh 30,096 35.56 +8.92
Greens Vanessa Rauland 4,967 5.87 −1.53
Palmer United Vimal Sharma 2,600 3.07 −3.81
Christians Jamie van Burgel 2,433 2.87 −0.23
Animal Justice Katrina Love 1,195 1.41 +1.41
Pirate Michelle Allen 775 0.92 +0.92
Defence Veterans Greg Smith 690 0.82 +0.82
Family First Jim McCourt 623 0.74 −0.61
Independent Teresa van Lieshout 539 0.64 +0.64
Sustainable Population Angela Smith 513 0.61 +0.61
Liberal Democrats Connor Whittle 492 0.58 +0.58
Total formal votes 84,635 94.34 −0.14
Informal votes 5,082 5.66 +0.14
Turnout 89,717 79.53 −12.48
Two-party-preferred result
Liberal Andrew Hastie 46,772 55.26 −6.55
Labor Matt Keogh 37,863 44.74 +6.55
Liberal hold Swing −6.55

Though the Turnbull Government was just four days old, their candidate Andrew Hastie retained the seat for the Liberals, declared 24 September, despite having to rely on preferences after a substantial, though dampened, primary (−4.15) and two-party (−6.55) swing away from the Liberals − solidly less than the double-digit swings polls had predicted under an Abbott Government − however, some double-digit swings did eventuate among the suburban booths in the north of the seat. The Canning Liberal margin was reduced from safe to marginal status. Political analysts agreed the by-election was a "good outcome for both major parties".[5]

Polling

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See also: Australian federal election, 2016 § Opinion polls
Canning polling
Date Poll Primary vote TPP vote
LIB ALP GRN OTH LIB ALP
14 September 2015* ReachTEL[18] 47.6% 32.9% 6.4% 10.4% 57% 43%
12 September 2015 Ipsos[19] 45% 36% 9% 10% 52% 48%
12 September 2015 Galaxy[20] 44% 36% 9% 11% 52% 48%
28 August 2015* ReachTEL[21] 47.7% 33.8% 8% 51% 49%
26 August 2015 ReachTEL[22] 44% 30% 9% 17% 49.9% 50.1%
15–16 August 2015 Newspoll[23] 41% 36% 11% 12% 51% 49%
29 July 2015 ReachTEL[24] 50.8% 49.2%
2013 election 51.1% 26.6% 7.4% 14.9% 61.8% 38.2%
* The poll conducted by ReachTEL on the night of 14 September (following Turnbull's election) had an "undecided" option. 2.6% chose this option.
* The poll conducted by ReachTel on 28 August had an "undecided" option. 6.5% voted undecided and there were no options for other candidates.

The ReachTEL poll published in The West Australian on 28 August, the Liberals were ahead on two-party vote: 51% to 49%. The poll of 782 voters was commissioned by Australian Marriage Equality and WA director Brian Greig said the 62% support for gay marriage among undecided voters could decide the by-election.[21]

Days earlier, the ReachTEL poll published in The West Australian on 26 August, Labor was slightly ahead on two-party preferred vote: 50.1% to the Liberals on 49.9%. The poll of 768 voters was commissioned by the union United Voice.[25]

On 15–16 August 2015, 508 Canning voters (MoE of 4.3^) were polled by Newspoll via landline phone. Primary votes were Liberal 41% (−10.1), Labor 36% (+9.4), Greens 11% (+3.6), Palmer 2% (−4.9) and Others 10% (+2.0). Based on preference flows at the previous election (which have recently significantly favoured the Liberals in national polling compared to respondent-allocated preferences[26]), the two-party vote washes out to Liberal 51% (−10.8) and Labor 49% (+10.8).[27]

Timeline of federal political issues current during the opinion polls

Polling issues

Federal

The Canning by-election was described by many commentators as a key test for the Abbott government and for the leadership of Prime Minister Tony Abbott.[45][46][47] On 14 September, Malcolm Turnbull won the leadership spill against Mr Abbott.[48] In the lead-up to the spill, it was reported Foreign Minister Julie Bishop told Cabinet that Labor wanted the Liberals to win the seat of Canning, so Mr Abbott would not be ousted as Prime Minister, preferring to campaign against him at the next federal election.[49] Earlier in the year, Western Australian backbenchers Luke Simpkins and Don Randall moved a leadership spill against Mr Abbott declaring he had disconnected from voters.[50] The prediction of a 10-point swing against the Liberals in the Canning by-election may have sparked a realisation in the Liberal party that something had to change.[51] Current speculation centres on what effect the leadership spill will have on the by-election.[52] While Labor candidate Matt Keogh had begun to gain traction in the region, Turnbull's election "immediately boosted the numbers for the Liberals".[53] However, analysis of the postal votes, which had been cast before the leadership change, show a similar swing as the polling day votes, indicating that the change in federal Liberal leadership had no effect.[54]

Renewable energy

The solar industry letter-boxed all electors to vote against the Liberal Party and support Labor, Greens and PUP in response to the federal government's intention to scrap the small-scale renewable energy target.[55] The Greens chose renewable energy as one of their main campaign topics, by electing Curtin University sustainability lecturer Vanessa Rauland as their candidate.[56] An opinion poll conducted during the election campaign showed that 65% of voters would support a renewable energy target of 50% by 2030.[57]

Same-sex marriage

Same-sex marriage legislation is a key issue that may be decided by a conscience vote in federal parliament. The views of all Canning candidates on this issue have been surveyed by the Australian Marriage Equality group[58] and the Mandurah Mail.[59] Opposed to same-sex marriage were Andrew Hastie (Liberal), Jamie Van Burgel (Christians), Jim McCourt (Family First) and independent Teresa van Lieshout, while Vimal Sharma (Palmer United) did not answer the question. All other candidates supported same-sex marriage.[59][60] A survey conducted by ReachTel during the campaign showed 47% of the electorate in support and 41% opposed to same-sex marriage.[58]

Local

Crime

Police statistics in the lead-up to the by-election showed Armadale had one of the highest crime rates in the Perth metropolitan area.[61]

Liberal candidate Andrew Hastie cited crime as a top issue, alongside jobs, and pledged one of the first things he would do if elected would be to take action on methamphetamine and ice. Hastie blamed the previous Labor federal government for leaving a "huge fiscal hole". He advocated a combined "law enforcement and a compassionate community solution". He said, "I would look at bringing a whole bunch of stakeholders together, from law enforcement through to community councillors to educators to medical people and tackling ice head on."[61]

Labor candidate Matt Keogh also said crime and community safety were repeatedly raised by people in the electorate. He attacked the Abbott Government, saying it had cut funding to crisis services and community groups dealing with ice and other drugs, domestic violence and social breakdown. Keogh said the Abbott Government had stripped community organisations of certainty.[61]

Infrastructure funding

The cities of Armadale and Cockburn joined forces to lobby the federal government to try to secure millions of dollars during the campaign to upgrade major road infrastructure. The two councils believed $300 million was needed to transform more of Armadale Road into a dual carriageway and to build a new bridge over Kwinana Freeway to link North Lake Road at Cockburn Central. The councils planned to letter drop householders voting in the Canning by-election urging them to email federal and state MPs to help secure the funding.[62] At the Labor Party state conference on 29 August, Federal Opposition Leader Bill Shorten promised to spend $170 million on infrastructure projects in Canning.[63]

Voter demographics

The Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) announced 112,809 people were eligible to cast a vote in the by-election, after the rolls for the 19 September poll closed on 24 August. Almost half of those enrolled to vote in the by-election were aged 50 and over, reflecting the high number of retirees in the West Australian electorate.[64] Just 10 per cent were aged 25 or younger.[64]

Polling places and postal voting

The AEC planned 45 polling places for the by-election, with early postal voting from 25 August.[64] The AEC planned three mobile voting teams on the day, including two teams to visit nursing homes and hospitals, and the third to visit Karnet Prison Farm in Serpentine.[64]

See also

References

  1. ↑ 1.0 1.1 Death of federal MP opens way for by-election in WA seat of Canning: ABC 22 July 2015
  2. ↑ Causes and Timing of Federal By-elections 1992–2015: Antony Green's Election Blog, ABC
  3. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  4. ↑ 4.0 4.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  5. ↑ 5.0 5.1 Liberal and Labor parties hail success of campaigns: ABC 20 September 2015
  6. ↑ Palmer United Party picks Vimal Sharma as Canning candidate – The Australian, 21 August 2015.
  7. ↑ PUP's Clive Palmer lets slip Canning candidate Vimal Sharma on Radio 6PR – WAtoday, 21 August 2015.
  8. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  9. ↑ Vote like a Pirate Day! Pirate Party announces Canning by-election candidate – Pirate Party Australia 25 August 2015
  10. ↑ "Battlelines: Another former soldier steps forward for Canning byelection" – WAtoday. Retrieved 26 August 2015.
  11. ↑ 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.5 2015 Canning by-election: Antony Green ABC
  12. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  13. ↑ https://www.laborherald.com.au/politics/labor-nominations-open-for-canning-by-election-following-randalls-death/
  14. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  15. ↑ Canning by-election | 19 September 2015 – Sustainable Population Party. Retrieved 27 August 2015.
  16. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  17. ↑ First Preferences and Two Candidate Preferred, 2015 Canning by-election: AEC
  18. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  19. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  20. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  21. ↑ 21.0 21.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  22. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  23. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  24. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  25. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  26. ↑ Coalition share of minor party and independent preferences: Nielsen, Morgan and Ipsos – The Poll Bludger
  27. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  28. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  29. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  30. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  31. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  32. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  33. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  34. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  35. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  36. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  37. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  38. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  39. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  40. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  41. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  42. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  43. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  44. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  45. ↑ Grattan, Michelle: "Canning byelection test set for September", in The Conversation, 17 August 2015
  46. ↑ Hasham, Nicole: "Abbott government's popularity to be tested at expected Canning byelection after Don Randall's death" in The Sydney Morning Herald, 22 July 2015
  47. ↑ Morris, Sophie: "Canning heat for Abbott in byelection", in The Saturday Paper, 22 August 2015
  48. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  49. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  50. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  51. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  52. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  53. ↑ http://www.smh.com.au//breaking-news-national/voting-begins-in-canning-byelection-20150919-432ok.html
  54. ↑ http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/sep/22/canning-postal-votes-show-change-in-liberal-leadership-did-not-help-andrew-hastie
  55. ↑ Taylor, Lenore: "Canning byelection: solar industry urges voters to reject Liberals 'war on solar'" in The Guardian, 25 August 2015
  56. ↑ Mercer, Daniel: "Greens target education, energy", in The West Australian, 24 August 2015
  57. ↑ Wahlquist, Calla: "Canning byelection poll: renewable energy trumps national security" in The Guardian, 3 September 2015
  58. ↑ 58.0 58.1 Carmody, Rebecca: "Canning by-election: Australian Christians give first preference to Liberal Andrew Hastie as 'reward' for same-sex marriage stance" in ABC News, 7 September 2015
  59. ↑ 59.0 59.1 Hondros, Nathan: "Canning byelection – question time for candidates", in Mandurah Mail, 6 September 2015
  60. ↑ Australian Marriage Equality: "Survey of Canning candidates position on marriage equality", retrieved 8 September 2015
  61. ↑ 61.0 61.1 61.2 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  62. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  63. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  64. ↑ 64.0 64.1 64.2 64.3 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.

External links

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