Castile-La Mancha parliamentary election, 2015
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All 33 seats in the Courts of Castile-La Mancha 17 seats needed for a majority |
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Opinion polls | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Registered | 1,576,351 ![]() |
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Turnout | 1,127,147 (71.5%)![]() |
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The 2015 Castile-La Mancha parliamentary election was held on Sunday, 24 May 2015, to elect the 9th Courts of Castile-La Mancha, the unicameral regional legislature of the Spanish autonomous community of Castile-La Mancha. At stake were all seats in the Courts, determining the President of the Junta of Communities of Castile-La Mancha. The number of members decreased from 49 to 33 compared to the previous election, as a result of reforms in both the community's electoral law and Statute of Autonomy.
The election was held concurrently with the regional elections for 12 other autonomous communities, as well as the 2015 municipal elections.
Contents
Electoral system
The electoral law of Castile-La Mancha was reformed on 21 July 2014, with the number of seats in the Castile-La Mancha Courts decreasing to 33 from 49.[1] This reform was undergone after another one had been done in 2012. The 2012 reform, approved without consensus from other parties, had increased the Courts' size to 53 from 49 for the 2015 election,[2] something which had already been criticised by the opposition PSOE, as it was deemed that the new seat-distribution between provinces benefitted the PP.[3]
The new reform, approved unilaterally by the PP alongside an extraordinary reforming of the community's Statute of Autonomy (needed to be able to decrease the Courts' size to 33) was severely criticised as it would mean that third parties, such as United Left, Union, Progress and Democracy or ascending Podemos and Citizens would find it extremely difficult to enter the new Courts, while also benefitting the PP in the seat distribution, virtually assuring a PP absolute majority in the region even if the party plummeted in electoral terms.[4]
After the 2014 reform, all Courts members are elected in 5 multi-member districts, corresponding to Castile-La Mancha's five provinces, using the D'Hondt method and a closed-list proportional representation system. Each district is entitled to an initial minimum of 3 seats, with the remaining 18 seats being allocated among the five provinces in proportion to their populations. For the 2015 election, seats are distributed as follows: Albacete (6), Ciudad Real (8), Cuenca (5), Guadalajara (5) and Toledo (9).
Voting is on the basis of universal suffrage in a secret ballot. Only lists polling above 3% of the total vote in each district (which includes blank ballots—for none of the above) are entitled to enter the seat distribution.[5]
Opinion polls
Vote
Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. Poll results use the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. However, if such date is unknown, the date of publication will be given instead.
Date | Polling Firm/Source | PP | PSOE | IU | UPyD | C's | P | Oth. | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 May 2015 | Regional Election | 37.5 | 36.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 8.6 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 |
24 May | TNS-Demoscopia | 38.4 | 35.2 | 7.0 | 9.9 | 9.5 | 3.2 | ||
Exit polls | |||||||||
17 May | NC-Report | 40.8 | 35.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 9.3 | 8.9 | 1.4 | 5.2 |
17 May | GAD3 | 39.4 | 27.5 | 14.2 | 10.6 | 8.3 | 11.9 | ||
8–12 May | Sigma-2 | 37.9 | 32.9 | 4.3 | 9.6 | 10.7 | 4.6 | 5.0 | |
27 Apr–8 May | PP | 37.5 | 33.6 | 4.5 | 9.8 | 10.3 | 4.3 | 3.9 | |
30 Apr–5 May | Metroscopia | 35.1 | 26.6 | 17.6 | 12.6 | 8.1 | 8.5 | ||
28 Apr–4 May | Noxa | 31.6 | 32.3 | 17.0 | 10.0 | 9.1 | 0.7 | ||
27 Apr–4 May | Sigma-2 | 37.6 | 28.8 | 6.4 | 11.1 | 11.4 | 4.7 | 8.8 | |
23 Apr–4 May | LVT | 39.5 | 40.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 8.5 | 10.7 | 0.1 | 0.6 |
23–28 Apr | GAD3 | 40.1 | 25.5 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 16.9 | 9.1 | 4.0 | 14.6 |
23 Mar–19 Apr | CIS | 34.9 | 35.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 12.0 | 9.9 | 3.4 | 0.2 |
11–17 Apr | Noxa | 35.1 | 37.1 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 8.5 | 11.2 | 2.2 | 2.0 |
7–14 Mar | Noxa | 35.4 | 36.4 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 7.8 | 11.9 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
2–11 Mar | NC-Report | 42.3 | 33.1 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 9.2 | 10.0 | 1.5 | 9.2 |
7–21 Jan | GAD3 | 42.3 | 32.5 | 11.6 | 13.6 | 9.8 | |||
10 Dec–9 Jan | Asturbarómetro | 42.9 | 28.1 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 16.4 | 4.7 | 14.8 |
2015 | |||||||||
12–23 Oct | NC-Report | 42.6 | 35.5 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 12.4 | 2.9 | 7.1 | |
25 May 2014 | EP Election | 37.7 | 28.8 | 8.7 | 7.2 | 2.2 | 6.4 | 9.0 | 8.9 |
26 Mar–10 Apr | GAD3 | 44.8 | 38.7 | 8.2 | 8.3 | 6.1 | |||
2014 | |||||||||
18–28 Nov | NC-Report | 41.3 | 38.9 | 7.5 | 5.6 | 6.7 | 2.4 | ||
2–15 May | NC-Report | 41.9 | 39.7 | 7.2 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 2.2 | ||
15 Apr–10 May | NC-Report | 41.8 | 40.2 | 18.0 | 1.6 | ||||
1–22 Apr | GAD3 | 43.5 | 40.1 | 8.9 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 3.4 | ||
2013 | |||||||||
2012 | |||||||||
20 Nov 2011 | General Election | 55.8 | 30.3 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 25.5 | ||
22 May 2011 | Regional Election | 48.1 | 43.4 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 4.7 |
Seat projections
Opinion polls showing seat projections are displayed in the table below. The highest seat figures in each polling survey have their background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. 17 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Courts of Castile-La Mancha.
Date | Polling Firm/Source | PP | PSOE | IU | UPyD | C's | P | Others | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 May 2015 | Regional Election | 16 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
24 May | TNS-Demoscopia | 15−17 | 13−15 | 0 | 0 | 0−1 | 1−2 | 0 | |
24 May | GAD3 | 15−16 | 13−14 | 0 | 0 | 0−3 | 2−3 | 0 | |
Exit polls | |||||||||
17 May | NC-Report | 16−17 | 12−13 | 0 | 0 | 1−2 | 1−2 | 0 | |
17 May | GAD3 | 16−17 | 10−11 | 0 | 0 | 3−4 | 2−3 | 0 | |
8–12 May | Sigma-2 | 15−17 | 11−13 | 0 | 0 | 2−3 | 3 | 0 | |
27 Apr–8 May | PP | 17 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
30 Apr–5 May | Metroscopia | 14 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 0 | |
28 Apr–4 May | Noxa | 12 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | |
27 Apr–4 May | Sigma-2 | 15−16 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 2−4 | 3−4 | 0 | |
23 Apr–4 May | LVT | 13 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
23–28 Apr | GAD3 | 17−18 | 9−10 | 0 | 0 | 3−5 | 2−3 | 0 | |
23 Mar–19 Apr | CIS | 14−15 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 3−4 | 2 | 0 | |
11–17 Apr | Noxa | 14 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
7–14 Mar | Noxa | 14 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
2–11 Mar | NC-Report | 17−18 | 10−11 | 0 | 0 | 2−3 | 2−3 | 0 | |
25 Feb | PSOE | 14−15 | 14−16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3−5 | 0 | |
20 Feb | PP | 17 | 11−14 | 1−2 | 0 | 0 | 4−5 | 0 | |
28 Jan | PP | 18 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | |
7–21 Jan | GAD3 | 18 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
10 Dec–9 Jan | Asturbarómetro | 17 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | |
2015 | |||||||||
31 Oct | Llorente & Cuenca | 13−15 | 14−16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2−4 | 0 | |
12–23 Oct | NC-Report | 17 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
25 May 2014 | EP Election | (24) | (18) | (4) | (4) | (0) | (3) | (0) | |
26 Mar–10 Apr | GAD3 | 28 | 23 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
2014 | |||||||||
18–28 Nov | NC-Report | 27 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |||
15 Oct–12 Nov | NC-Report | 27 | 23−24 | 1−2 | 0−1 | 0 | |||
2–15 May | NC-Report | 27 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |||
15 Apr–10 May | NC-Report | 27 | 23−24 | 2−3 | 0 | 0 | |||
1–22 Apr | GAD3 | 28 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |||
2013 | |||||||||
2012 | |||||||||
20 Nov 2011 | General Election | (32) | (17) | (0) | (0) | (0) | |||
22 May 2011 | Regional Election | 25 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Results
Overall
Party | Vote | Seats | ||||
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Votes | % | ±pp | Won | +/− | ||
People's Party (PP) | 413,349 | 37.49 | ![]() |
16 | ![]() |
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Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) | 398,104 | 36.11 | ![]() |
15 | ![]() |
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We Can (Podemos) | 107,463 | 9.75 | New | 2 | ![]() |
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Citizens-Party of the Citizenry (C's) | 95,230 | 8.64 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
Let's Win Castile-La Mancha-The Greens-United Left (Ganemos-LV-IU) | 34,230 | 3.10 | ![]() |
0 | ±0 | |
Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) | 10,866 | 0.99 | ![]() |
0 | ±0 | |
Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA) | 8,943 | 0.81 | ![]() |
0 | ±0 | |
Vox (VOX) | 5,302 | 0.48 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
Independent Citizens' Union (UCIN) | 5,061 | 0.46 | ![]() |
0 | ±0 | |
The Greens-Green Group (LV-GV) | 1,918 | 0.17 | ![]() |
0 | ±0 | |
Castilian Party-Castilian Unity (PCAS-UdCa) | 1,532 | 0.14 | ![]() |
0 | ±0 | |
Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain (PCPE) | 987 | 0.09 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
Independents and Liberals for Manzanares (LIM) | 287 | 0.03 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
Blank ballots | 19,256 | 1.75 | ![]() |
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Total | 1,102,528 | 100.00 | 33 | ![]() |
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Valid votes | 1,102,528 | 97.82 | ![]() |
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Invalid votes | 24,619 | 2.18 | ![]() |
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Votes cast / turnout | 1,127,147 | 71.50 | ![]() |
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Abstentions | 449,204 | 28.50 | ![]() |
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Registered voters | 1,576,351 | |||||
Source: Argos Information Portal |
References
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