Louisiana gubernatorial election, 2015

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See also: Louisiana elections, 2015
Louisiana gubernatorial election, 2015
← 2011 November 21, 2015 2019 →
  134px DVitterOfficial.jpg
Nominee John Bel Edwards David Vitter
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 646,924 505,940
Percentage 56.1% 43.9%
300px
Parish results of the 2015 Louisiana gubernatorial election.
Governor before election

Bobby Jindal
Republican

 Elected Governor

John Bel Edwards
Democratic

Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found. The Louisiana gubernatorial election of 2015 was conducted to choose a new Governor of Louisiana. Incumbent Republican Governor Bobby Jindal was not eligible to run for re-election to a third term because of term limits established by the Louisiana Constitution.

Under Louisiana's jungle primary system, all candidates appeared on the same ballot, regardless of party and voters may vote for any candidate, regardless of their party affiliation. As no candidate received a majority of the vote during the primary election on October 24, 2015, a runoff election was held on November 21, 2015 between the top two candidates in the primary. Louisiana is the only state that has a jungle primary system (California and Washington have a similar "top two primary" system).

The runoff election featured Democratic Minority Leader of the Louisiana House of Representatives John Bel Edwards and Republican Senator David Vitter, as they were the top two vote getters in the primary. Lieutenant Governor Jay Dardenne and Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle were eliminated in the jungle primary.

In the runoff, which was held November 21, 2015, Bel Edwards defeated Vitter by a count of 56.1% to 43.9%.[1] Edwards became the first Democrat to win a statewide election in Louisiana since 2008, when Mary Landrieu won her third term in the United States Senate. The election was one of the most expensive in history, with over $50 million spent by candidates and outside groups.[2]

Candidates

Republican Party

Filed

Declined

Democratic Party

Filed

Declined

Independents

Filed

  • Beryl Billiot, restaurant owner and former Marine[26]
  • Jeremy Odom, minister[27]
  • Eric Paul Orgeron[28]

Declined

Endorsements

Jungle primary

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Scott
Angelle (R)		 Jay
Dardenne (R)		 John Bel
Edwards (D)		 John
Kennedy (R)		 Mitch
Landrieu (D)		 David
Vitter (R)		 Other Unde-
cided
MarblePortLLC October 20–21, 2015 1464 ± 3% 12.7% 14.1% 40.5% — — 28.5% — 4.3%
MRI October 15–19, 2015 600 ± ?% 17% 14% 36% — — 19% 2% 12%
Harper Polling (R) October 16–17, 2015 612 ± 3.9% 14% 14% 36% — — 26% — 9%
KPLC/Raycom Media October 7–13, 2015 602 ± 4% 7% 8% 24% — — 21% — 37%
The Advocate/WWL-TV September 20–23, 2015 800 ± 3.46% 15% 14% 24% — — 24% — 18%
Public Policy Polling September 21–22, 2015 616 ± 4% 15% 14% 28% — — 27% — 17%
Verne Kennedy July 27–31, 2015 600 ± 4% 25% 12% 20% — — 22% — 21%
MarblePort June 17, 2015 1415 ± 2.6% 11.1% 10.4% 28.8% — — 34.1% — 15.6%
Verne Kennedy May 27–29, 2015 700 ± 3.5% 17% 12% 29% — — 29% — 13%
SM&O Research May 5, 2015 600 ± 4.0% 6% 17% 25% — — 38% — 16%
MarblePort March 17, 2015 1,071 ± 2.99% 7% 14% 31% — — 34% — 14%
Triumph March 5, 2015 1,655 ± 2.4% 7% 15% 33% — — 35% — 11%
NSO Research* Jan. 10–13, 2015 600 ± 4% 2% 10% 20% 13% — 24% — 32%
SM&O Research Dec. 9–11, 2014 600 ± ? 3.1% 18.6% 25.7% — — 36.3% — 16.3%
Suffolk Oct. 23–26, 2014 500 ± 4% 3% 9.8% 3.8% — 22.6% 31.6% — 29.2%
Multi-Quest Oct. 22–24, 2014 606 ± 4% 2.3% 10.9% 4% — — 25.9% 3.8%[61] 53.1%
SM&O Research April 28–30, 2014 600 ± ? 3.8% 10.5% 5.5% 11.7% 28.9% 28.9% — 10.6%
PSB April 2014 601 ± ? — 14% 17% 8% — 18% 14%[62] 29%
Magellan Mar. 24–26, 2014 600 ± 4.1% — 13.1% 4.6% 8.5% 26.4% 27.6% — 19.8%
V/C Research Feb. 20–25, 2014 600 ± 4% — 11% 8% 9% 33% 25% — 15%
Kitchens Group** Feb. 10–12, 2014 600 ± 4.2% — 9% 21% 7% — 26% — 38%
WPAOR^ Nov. 12–14, 2013 800 ± 3.5% — 12% 2% 9% 20% 25% 11%[63] 11
— 22% — — 29% 35% — 14%
SM&O Research Nov. 6–12, 2013 600 ± 4% 2.1% 18% 7.9% 18.9% — 30.3% — 22.9%
Magellan Oct. 2–4, 2012 2,862 ± 1.9% — 6.5% — 7.2% 29.4% 31.1% 9.1%[64] 16.7%
  • * Internal poll for the John Kennedy campaign
  • ** Internal poll for the John Bel Edwards campaign
  • ^ Internal poll for the Jay Dardenne campaign

Results

Louisiana gubernatorial election Jungle Primary, 2015
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic John Bel Edwards 444,517 39.89
Republican David Vitter 256,300 23.00
Republican Scott Angelle 214,982 19.29
Republican Jay Dardenne 166,656 14.96
Democratic Cary Deaton 11,763 1.06
Democratic S.L. Simpson 7,420 0.67
Independent Beryl Billiot 5,694 0.51
Independent Jeremy Odom 4,756 0.43
Independent Eric Orgeron 2,248 0.20
Majority 188,217 16.89
Total votes 1,114,336 100

Runoff

On November 5, 2015, Lieutenant Governor Jay Dardenne, who finished fourth in the primary election, endorsed Democrat Edwards in the upcoming general election against his intraparty rival, Senator David Vitter. Dardenne made the announcement at "Free Speech Alley" in front of the LSU Student Union building in Baton Rouge.[65] After the primary, polls showed Edwards with a commanding lead over Vitter. Verne Kennedy of Market Research Insight placed Edwards ahead, 54 to 38 percent or 51 to 40 percent, depending on the level of turnout among African-American voters, either 25 or 20 percent, accordingly.[66]

Dardenne's backing of Edwards drew fire from state Republican chairman Roger Villere and Reince Priebus, the chairman of the Republican National Committee, who termed the endorsement a betrayal: "You cannot claim to be a conservative fighter for Louisiana principles and publicly endorse an Obama liberal like Mr. Edwards," the two chairmen wrote. Vitter, who had sought Dardenne's endorsement, said he remains "very excited about our campaign and the tens of thousands of conservative Louisiana voters who have jumped on board in the past week, including so many that voted for Jay. We wish Jay and his family the best."[67]

Third-place contender Scott Angelle never spoke about any role that he would play in the general election, prior to the election.[67]

A debate between Edwards and Vitter was held on November 10 by Louisiana Public Broadcasting and the Council for a Better Louisiana.[68]

Early voting was possible from November 7 until November 14. Despite having one fewer day due to Veterans Day, turnout was significantly higher compared to the primary election early voting, especially among black voters and in urban parishes.[69]

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 David
Vitter (R)		 John Bel
Edwards (D)		 Undecided
RRH Elections November 12–16, 2015 359 ± 5% 42% 48% 10%
JMC Analytics November 14–16, 2015 635 ± 3.9% 35% 51% 13%
JMC Analytics November 14–16, 2015 635 ± 4% 38% 54% 8%
Market Research Insight November 11–14, 2015 600 ± 4% 38% 53% 9%
Hayride/MarblePort November 11, 2015 978 ± 3.1% 42% 48% 10%
Market Research Insight November 11, 2015 600 ± 4% 38% 52% 10%
UNO Survey Research Center November 2–8, 2015 600 ± 4% 34% 56% 10%
Triumph Campaigns November 5, 2015 1,818 ± 3% 41% 49% 10%
WVLA/JMC Analytics October 28–31, 2015 600 ± 4% 32% 52% 16%
Market Research Insight October 27–28, 2015 600 ± 4.1% 38% 54% 8%
Anzalone Liszt Grove October 26–28, 2015 700 ± 3.7% 40% 52% 7%
KPLC/Raycom Media October 7–13, 2015 602 ± 4% 33% 52%  ?%
The Advocate/WWL-TV September 20–23, 2015 800 ± 3.46% 41% 45%  ?%
Public Policy Polling September 21–22, 2015 616 ± 4% 38% 50% 12%
Public Policy Polling September 25–28, 2014 1,141 ± 2.9% 50% 32% 18%
Public Policy Polling June 26–29, 2014 664 ± 3.8% 52% 30% 17%
The Kitchen Group* February 10–12, 2014 600 ± 4.2% 38% 32% 31%
Public Policy Polling February 6–9, 2014 635 ± 3.9% 51% 30% 19%

*Internal poll for the John Bel Edwards campaign

Bel Edwards win was the first statewide win for Democrats in Louisiana since Mary Landrieu won a third term to the senate in 2008. Bel Edwards performance was surprisingly well for being a Democrat in Louisiana. Bel Edwards especially performed well in Caddo Parish home of Shreveport, East Baton Rouge Parish home of Baton Rouge, and especially in the reliably Democratic Orleans Parish home of New Orleans. Turnout was slightly higher in the November run-off than in the October jungle primary.

Louisiana gubernatorial election runoff, 2015
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic John Bel Edwards 646,924 56.1
Republican David Vitter 505,940 43.9
Majority 140,931 12.2
Voter turnout 40.2%
Democratic gain from Republican

See also

References

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  28. ↑ url=http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=218927.0
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  61. ↑ Foster Campbell (D)
  62. ↑ Newell Normand (R) 10%, Mike Strain (R) 4%
  63. ↑ Rodney Alexander (R) 4%, Foster Campbell (D) 2%, John Georges (D) 2%, Jim Bernhard (D) 1%, Gerald Long (R) 1%, Newell Normand (R) 1%
  64. ↑ John Georges (D) 6%, Mike Strain (R) 3.1%
  65. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  66. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  67. ↑ 67.0 67.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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External links

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