Male immigration surplus

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Male immigration surplus is a political term for the discussion about demographic changes caused by mostly men immigrating from the Third World to Western countries. The most noteable example is the post-2014 wave of migrants from the Middle East and Africa in the European migrant crisis. This is alleged to distort the sex ratio in the destination countries, and to be part of the process of population replacement.[1]

In Sweden

The process is most noticeable in Sweden, where males outnumbered females by 2016, which was not expected to happen before 2050.[2] The newcomers are more likely to come from countries that already have a male surplus, or a perceived male surplus due to the practice of polygyny.[3]

Sweden's 35,000 unaccompanied minors arriving in 2015 included large cohorts of teenage boys from Afghanistan, Syria, and North Africa.[4] Hence, by 2016 there were predicted to be 123 boys for every 100 girls in the 15 to 19 age group in Sweden.[5][6]


Public discussion of this issue is discouraged, since immigration is considered a sensitive subject. Equality Minister Asa Regner of the ruling Social Democrats refused to be interviewed in 2016, and the center-right Moderates also declined to comment.[7]

Popular media are more likely to claim the opposite phenomenon of "surplus women", which really did occur after both world wars, in which more men than women were killed. Today, more women than men go to college, where they will only date men of equal or higher educational, social, or professional rank,[8] creating the perception of a "man shortage".

Far-right critics of Third World immigration are angered by this trend, and by white women having sex with the newcomers. They claim this is destabilizing, and will lead to an inevitable social collapse.[9]

Western World

A group of Latin-American migrants seeking to immigrate to the USA in 2018. Most will file for refugee status after crossing the border. While the group includes both men and women, the former are by far in the majority. This group forms a small sample of an increasingly unbalanced male surplus immigration trend (both legal and illegal) into the West from Third World countries.

Elsewhere in Europe the refugees are also reported to include a surfeit of young unmarried males. In 2015, over 66 percent of adult migrants entering Italy and Greece were men.[10]

Like neighboring Sweden, Norway swung to a male surplus in 2011. Denmark and Switzerland are expected to reach that point before 2020.[11] Germany has also experienced a surplus of mostly young men over women among its newcomers.[12]

The USA has an overall male surplus among its foreign born population.[13] The distribution among legal immigrants is biased toward younger men and older women, where young male workers bring in female family members after being naturalized.

Male birth surplus

Some claim immigrants also have an unexpectedly high chance of birthing boy babies after settling. This could be a temporary phenomenon.[14][15][16][17]

Worldwide, the natural birth ratio is about 105 boys for every 100 girls. In the past men were likelier to die at early ages than women, which tended to equalize the sex ratio around middle age, but this has been changing as men live longer due to improved health care and reduced violence.[18][19]

Possible consequences

The social changes caused by "surplus men" would be most noticeable in India and China, though their imbalances were not caused by immigration but by sex-selective abortion over several decades.[20][21] However, Sweden has rapidly developed an even worse male surplus in its youngest age cohorts.[22]

It is feared that a surplus of men is likely to lead to more violence and other crimes.[23] There may also be an increase in homosexuality.[24]

Male surplus immigration has contributed to a mostly online movement that is opposed to immigration from the Third world to the West. Among the Alt-right, leading immigration skeptics include Steve Sailer, Chateau Heartiste, and Breitbart News Network.[25]


  9. Andrew Anglin (Apr 18, 2017)
  14. Dubuc S, Coleman D. An increase in the sex ratio of births to India-born mothers in England and Wales: evidence for sex-selective abortion. Popul Dev Rev. 2007
  15. Almond D, Edlund L. Son-biased sex ratios in the 2000 United States Census. 2008
  16. Almond D, Edlund L, Milligan K. Son preference and the persistence of culture: evidence from South and East Asian Immigrants to Canada. Popul Dev Rev. 2013
  17. Abrevaya J. Are there missing girls in United States? Evidence from birth data. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics. 2009
  23. Andrea Den Boer, Valerie M. Hudson, "A Surplus of Men, A Deficit of Peace: Security and Sex Ratios in Asia's Largest States", International Security, volume 26, issue 4, 2002,
  24. Consequences of son preference in a low-fertility society: imbalance of the sex ratio at birth in Korea; CB Park, NH Cho - Population and development review; 1995