Nationwide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2016

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This page lists nationwide public opinion polls that have been conducted relating to the 2016 United States presidential election. The two major party candidates were chosen at the Democratic National Convention and Republican National Convention in July 2016.

Donald Trump won the general election of Tuesday, November 8, 2016 despite being behind in nearly all opinion polls.[1][2] Media analysts differ as to why the polling industry was unable to correctly forecast the result;[1][2] with the exception of two daily tracking polls, the UPI/CVoter poll and the University of Southern California/Los Angeles Times poll were the only polls that often predicted a Trump victory or showed a nearly tied election.[3]

Aggregate polls

Poll numbers verified as of November 8, 2016.

Race Poll model Hillary
Clinton

Democratic
Donald
Trump

Republican
Gary
Johnson

Libertarian
Jill
Stein

Green
Leading by
(points)
Two-way 270 to Win 47.2% 43.6% N/A 3.6
BBC 48.0% 44.0% 4.0
Election Projection 47.0% 43.8% 3.2
HuffPost Pollster 47.3% 42.0% 5.3
New York Times 45.9% 42.8% 3.1
Real Clear Politics 46.8% 43.6% 3.2
TPM Polltracker 48.8% 43.9% 4.9
Three-way FiveThirtyEight 45.7% 41.8% 4.8% N/A 3.9
HuffPost Pollster 45.7% 40.8% 5.0% 4.9
New York Times 45.4% 42.3% 5.0% 3.1
TPM Polltracker 46.0% 44.1% 4.9% 1.9
Four-way 270 to Win 45.6% 42.5% 4.8% 2.1% 3.1
Election Projection 45.3% 42.0% 4.8% 2.1% 3.3
Real Clear Politics 45.5% 42.2% 4.7% 1.9% 3.3
CNN Poll of Polls 46.0% 42.0% 5.0% 2.0% 4.0
TPM Polltracker 46.6% 43.8% 4.6% 2.7% 2.8
Election results 48.1% 46.0% 3.3% 1.1% 2.1

Individual polls

Two-way race

Since convention nominations

Poll source Date Hillary Clinton
Democratic
Donald Trump
Republican
Leading by
(points)
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Template:Sad[4] November 1–7, 2016 49% 46% 3 1,728 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[5] November 4–7, 2016 49% 45% 4 3,677 ± 1.7%
Template:Sad[6] November 4–6, 2016 46% 43% 3 799 ± 3.5%
Template:Sad[7] November 3–6, 2016 49% 46% 3 2,220 ± 2.5%
Template:Sad[8] November 3–6, 2016 48% 44% 4 1,295 ± 2.5%
Template:Sad[9] November 3–6, 2016 43% 42% 1 1,026 ± 3.1%
Template:Sad[10] November 3–6, 2016 50% 44% 6 802 ± 3.6%
Template:Sad[11] November 2–6, 2016 44% 39% 5 2,195 ± 2.4%
Template:Sad[12] November 2–6, 2016 47% 43% 4 1,426 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[13] October 31 – November 6, 2016 51% 44% 7 70,194 ± 1.0%
Template:Sad[14] October 4 – November 6, 2016 43% 39% 4 84,292 ±%
Template:Sad[15] November 3–5, 2016 48% 43% 5 1,282 ± 2.73%
Template:Sad[16] November 2–5, 2016 49% 45% 4 1,937 ± 2.5%
Template:Sad[17] November 2–5, 2016 45% 44% 1 903 ± 3.3%
Template:Sad[18] October 30 – November 5, 2016 49% 46% 3 1,572 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[19] October 30 – November 5, 2016 43% 48% 5 2,988 ± 4.5%
Template:Sad[20] November 1–4, 2016 49% 44% 5 1,685 ± 2.5%
Template:Sad[21] November 1–4, 2016 46% 43% 3 804 ± 3.5%
Template:Sad[22] October 31 – November 4, 2016 44% 40% 4 2,244 ± 2.4%
Template:Sad[23] October 29 – November 4, 2016 49% 48% 1 1,497 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[24] October 29 – November 4, 2016 43% 48% 5 2,987 ± 4.5%
Template:Sad[25] November 1–3, 2016 46% 45% 1 1,107 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[26] November 1–3, 2016 46% 44% 2 940 ± 3.2%
Template:Sad[27] October 30 – November 3, 2016 44% 39% 5 2,021 ± 2.6%
Template:Sad[28] October 31 – November 3, 2016 49% 45% 4 1,419 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[29] October 30 – November 3, 2016 45% 44% 1 898 ± 3.3%
Template:Sad[30] October 28 – November 3, 2016 49% 48% 1 1,395 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[31] October 30 – November 2, 2016 49% 46% 3 1,151 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[32] October 29 – November 2, 2016 45% 39% 6 1,858 ± 2.6%
Template:Sad[33] October 29 – November 2, 2016 44% 44% Tied 867 ± 3.4%
Template:Sad[34] October 27 – November 2, 2016 49% 48% 1 1,329 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[35] October 29 – November 1, 2016 49% 47% 2 1,167 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[36] October 28 – November 1, 2016 47% 44% 3 1,333 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[37] October 28 – November 1, 2016 45% 39% 6 1,772 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[38] October 30 – November 1, 2016 48% 45% 3 1,233 ± 3.2%
Template:Sad[39] October 27 – November 1, 2016 44% 44% Tied 862 ± 3.4%
Template:Sad[40] October 26 – November 1, 2016 49% 48% 1 1,383 ±3.0%
Template:Sad[41] October 26 – November 1, 2016 42% 48% 6 3,004 ± 4.5%
Template:Sad[42] October 31, 2016 50% 50% Tied 5,360 ± 1.3%
Template:Sad[43] October 28–31, 2016 48% 47% 1 1,182 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[44] October 26–31, 2016 45% 44% 1 1,018 ± 3.2%
Template:Sad[45] October 29–30, 2016 46% 43% 3 1,772 ± 2.0%
Template:Sad[46] October 27–30, 2016 52% 47% 5 2,075 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[47] October 27–30, 2016 48% 47% 1 1,167 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[48] October 26–30, 2016 44% 39% 5 1,264 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[49] October 25–30, 2016 45% 43% 2 993 ± 3.2%
Template:Sad[50] October 24–30, 2016 49% 48% 1 1,299 ±3.0%
Template:Sad[51] October 24–30, 2016 51% 44% 7 40,816 ± 1.0%
Template:Sad[52] October 26–29, 2016 49% 47% 2 1,165 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[53] October 24–29, 2016 45% 41% 4 1,039 ± 3.3%
Template:Sad[54] October 23–29, 2016 48% 48% Tied 1,317 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[55] October 27–28, 2016 46% 41% 5 1,794 ± 2.0%
Template:Sad[56] October 25–28, 2016 46% 45% 1 1,160 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[57] October 23–28, 2016 46% 41% 5 1,013 ± 3.3%
Template:Sad[58] October 24–27, 2016 49% 46% 3 1,148 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[59] October 22–27, 2016 45% 42% 3 973 ± 3.3%
Template:Sad[60] October 21–27, 2016 42% 36% 6 1,627 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[61] October 21–27, 2016 44% 46% 2 3,248 ± 4.5%
Template:Sad[62] October 23–26, 2016 50% 45% 5 1,150 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[63] October 22–26, 2016 49% 46% 3 1,376 ± 3.1%
Template:Sad[64] October 21–26, 2016 44% 42% 2 945 ± 3.3%
Template:Sad[65] October 20–26, 2016 49% 47% 2 1,363 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[66] October 22–25, 2016 49% 44% 5 1,221 ± 2.5%
Template:Sad[67] October 22–25, 2016 51% 44% 7 1,135 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[68] October 20–25, 2016 50% 43% 7 2,120 ± 2.4%
Template:Sad[69] October 20–25, 2016 43% 41% 2 921 ± 3.3%
Template:Sad[70] October 19–25, 2016 49% 47% 2 1,349 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[71] October 19–25, 2016 44% 45% 1 3,145 ± 4.5%
Template:Sad[72] October 21–24, 2016 47% 37% 10 804 ± 3.5%
Template:Sad[73] October 21–24, 2016 51% 43% 8 1,119 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[74] October 21–24, 2016 53% 41% 12 900 ± 3.27%
Template:Sad[75] October 20–24, 2016 54% 41% 13 1,546 ± 2.75%
Template:Sad[76] October 20–24, 2016 49% 39% 10 1,000 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[77] October 20–24, 2016 43% 37% 6 1,170 ± 3.3%
Template:Sad[78] October 19–24, 2016 43% 42% 1 873 ± 3.6%
Template:Sad[79] October 20–23, 2016 50% 50% Tied 2,109 ± 2.1%
Template:Sad[80] October 20–23, 2016 53% 41% 12 1,155 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[81] October 20–23, 2016 51% 45% 6 779 ± 3.5%
Template:Sad[82] October 18–23, 2016 42% 42% Tied 815 ± 3.6%
Template:Sad[83] October 17–23, 2016 50% 44% 6 32,225 ± 1.0%
Template:Sad[84] October 17–23, 2016 49% 46% 3 1,414 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[85] October 20–22, 2016 53% 41% 12 874 ± 3.5%
Template:Sad[86] October 17–22, 2016 42% 43% 1 783 ± 3.6%
Template:Sad[87] October 16–21, 2016 42% 42% Tied 791 ± 3.6%
Template:Sad[88] October 19–20, 2016 46% 40% 6 1,395 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[89] October 17–20, 2016 49% 42% 7 1,006 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[90] October 15–20, 2016 43% 41% 2 789 ± 3.6%
Template:Sad[91] October 14–20, 2016 44% 45% 1 3,001 ± 4.5%
Template:Sad[92] October 14–20, 2016 44% 40% 4 1,640 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[93] October 14–19, 2016 43% 41% 2 779 ± 3.6%
Template:Sad[94] October 17–18, 2016 50% 44% 6 1,007 ± 3.1%
Template:Sad[95] October 15–18, 2016 47% 43% 4 1,300 ± 4.0%
Template:Sad[96] October 13–18, 2016 44% 41% 3 782 ± 3.6%
Template:Sad[97] October 15–17, 2016 49% 42% 7 912 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[98] October 14–17, 2016 50% 41% 9 1,006 ± 3.1%
Template:Sad[99] October 13–17, 2016 43% 39% 4 1,190 ± 3.2%
Template:Sad[100] October 12–17, 2016 51% 36% 15 692 ±4.4%
Template:Sad[101] October 11–17, 2016 51% 46% 5 1,326 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[102] October 14–16, 2016 53% 41% 12 805 ± 3.5%
Template:Sad[103] October 12–16, 2016 51% 40% 11 1,411 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[104] October 10–16, 2016 51% 43% 8 24,804 ± 1.0%
Template:Sad[105] October 10–16, 2016 50% 46% 4 1,325 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[106] October 13–15, 2016 46% 41% 5 1,737 ± 2.0%
Template:Sad[107] October 10–13, 2016 51% 41% 10 905 ±3.3%
Template:Sad[108] October 10–13, 2016 50% 46% 4 740 ±4.0%
Franklin Pierce University/Boston Herald[109] October 9–13, 2016 46% 41% 5 1,001 ±3.1%
Template:Sad[110] October 8–13, 2016 47% 39% 8 1,000 ± 3.1%
Template:Sad[111] October 7–13, 2016 50% 45% 5 1,482 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[112] October 10–12, 2016 49% 41% 8 917 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[113] October 10, 2016 46% 41% 5 1,757 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[114] October 8–10, 2016 50% 40% 10 900 ± 3.5%
Template:Sad[115] October 6–10, 2016 44% 37% 7 2,363 ± 2.3%
Template:Sad[116] October 4–10, 2016 50% 44% 6 1,367 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[117] September 27 – October 10, 2016 53% 44% 9 3,616 ± 2.9%
Template:Sad[118] October 8–9, 2016 52% 38% 14 422 ± 4.6%
Template:Sad[119] October 3–9, 2016 51% 44% 7 23,329 ± 1.0%
Template:Sad[120] October 3–9, 2016 49% 44% 5 1,801 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[121] October 8, 2016 45% 41% 4 1,390 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[122] October 7–8, 2016 48% 43% 5 1,300 ± 4.2%
Template:Sad[123] October 5–6, 2016 44% 42% 2 1,775 ± 2.0%
Template:Sad[124] October 5–6, 2016 50% 44% 6 1,064 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[125] October 3–6, 2016 48% 44% 4 896 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[126] September 30 – October 6, 2016 43% 38% 5 1,695 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[127] September 30 – October 6, 2016 48% 47% 1 1,774 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[128] September 28 – October 4, 2016 47% 48% 1 1,274 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[129] September 28 – October 4, 2016 43% 47% 4 2,369 ± 4.5%
Template:Sad[130] October 1–3, 2016 48% 43% 5 911 ± 3.9%
Template:Sad[131] September 29 – October 3, 2016 44% 37% 7 1,928 ± 2.5%
Template:Sad[132] September 30 – October 2, 2016 46% 39% 7 1,778 ± 2.0%
Template:Sad[133] September 28 – October 2, 2016 50% 40% 10 788 ± 4.4%
Template:Sad[134] September 28 – October 2, 2016 49% 43% 6 1,501 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[135] September 28 – October 2, 2016 47% 42% 5 1,501 ± 2.5%
Template:Sad[136] September 26 – October 2, 2016 50% 44% 6 26,925 ± 1.0%
Template:Sad[137] September 26 – October 2, 2016 47% 49% 2 1,285 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[138] September 24–30, 2016 42% 47% 5 2,526 ± 4.5%
Template:Sad[139] September 27–29, 2016 49% 44% 5 911 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[140] September 23–29, 2016 43% 38% 5 2,501 ± 2.0%
Template:Sad[141] September 23–29, 2016 47% 49% 2 1,236 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[142] September 27–28, 2016 49% 45% 4 993 ± 3.2%
Template:Sad[143] September 27–28, 2016 42% 38% 4 1,336 ± 3.1%
Template:Sad[144] September 27, 2016 50% 50% Tied 3,386 ± 1.7%
Template:Sad[145] September 26–27, 2016 47% 42% 5 1,833 ±%
Template:Sad[146] September 26–27, 2016 45% 41% 4 1,253 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[147] September 21–27, 2016 48% 48% Tied 1,239 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[148] September 22–26, 2016 44% 38% 6 1,041 ± 3.5%
Template:Sad[149] September 22–25, 2016 47% 46% 1 1,115 ± 2.9%
Template:Sad[150] September 22–25, 2016 49% 46% 3 729 ± 3.6%
Template:Sad[151] September 19–25, 2016 51% 44% 7 13,598 ± 1.1%
Template:Sad[152] September 19–25, 2016 42% 46% 4 2,726 ± 4.5%
Template:Sad[153] September 19–25, 2016 48% 47% 1 1,052 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[154] September 22–24, 2016 44% 42% 2 1,712 ± 2.0%
Template:Sad[155] September 21–24, 2016 46% 46% Tied 1,002 ± 3.1%
Template:Sad[156] September 19–22, 2016 49% 47% 2 651 ± 4.5%
Template:Sad[157] September 16–22, 2016 41% 37% 4 1,559 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[158] September 15–21, 2016 43% 45% 2 2,623 ± 2.3%
Template:Sad[159] September 17–20, 2016 47% 44% 3 990 ± 3.2%
Template:Sad[160] September 15–20, 2016 48% 41% 7 758 ± 3.6%
Template:Sad[161] September 14–20, 2016 42% 46% 4 2,629 ± 2.3%
Template:Sad[162] September 18–19, 2016 45% 44% 1 936 ± 4.0%
Template:Sad[163] September 16–19, 2016 48% 41% 7 922 ± 3.23%
Template:Sad[164] September 15–19, 2016 39% 39% Tied 1,111 ± 3.4%
Template:Sad[165] September 15–19, 2016 50% 44% 6 1,251 ± 2.5%
Template:Sad[166] September 13–19, 2016 42% 47% 5 2,524 ± 2.2%
Template:Sad[167] September 12–18, 2016 48% 47% 1 1,203 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[168] September 12–18, 2016 50% 45% 5 13,230 ± 1.2%
Template:Sad[169] September 10–16, 2016 47% 47% Tied 1,246 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[170] September 9–15, 2016 47% 48% 1 1,229 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[171] September 9–15, 2016 42% 38% 4 1,579 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[172] September 9–15, 2016 41% 47% 6 2,497 ± 2.8%
Template:Sad[173] September 11–14, 2016 45% 46% 1 867 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[174] September 8–14, 2016 47% 48% 1 1,265 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[175] September 8–14, 2016 41% 47% 6 2,499 ± 3.1%
Template:Sad[176] September 10–13, 2016 46% 44% 2 1,087 ± 4.0%
Template:Sad[177] September 9–13, 2016 46% 44% 2 1,433 ± 3%
Template:Sad[178] September 8–13, 2016 48% 43% 5 960 ± 3.2%
Template:Sad[179] September 7–13, 2016 47% 48% 1 1,245 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[180] September 7–13, 2016 42% 47% 5 2,550 ± 2.7%
Template:Sad[181] September 8–12, 2016 40% 39% 1 1,127 ± 3.3%
Template:Sad[182] September 6–12, 2016 46% 49% 3 1,232 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[183] August 16 – September 12, 2016 52% 44% 8 3,941 ± 2.6%
Template:Sad[184] September 5–11, 2016 48% 44% 4 16,220 ± 1.1%
Template:Sad[185] September 5–11, 2016 46% 49% 3 1,260 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[186] September 6–8, 2016 44% 43% 1 1,710 ± 2.0%
Template:Sad[187] September 5–8, 2016 51% 43% 8 642 ± 4.5%
Template:Sad[188] September 2–8, 2016 45% 44% 1 2,653 ± 2.4%
Template:Sad[189] September 2–8, 2016 46% 48% 2 1,256 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[190] September 1–7, 2016 47% 48% 1 1,226 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[191] September 4–6, 2016 44% 42% 2 1,077 ± 4.7%
Template:Sad[192] August 31 – September 6, 2016 47% 47% Tied 1,262 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[193] September 1–5, 2016 40% 38% 2 1,084 ± 3.5%
Template:Sad[194] August 30 – September 5, 2016 48% 46% 2 1,220 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[195] September 1–4, 2016 48% 49% 1 786 ± 3.5%
Template:Sad[196] August 29 – September 4, 2016 48% 42% 6 32,226 ± 1.0%
Template:Sad[197] August 29 – September 4, 2016 49% 47% 2 1,237 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[198] August 28 – September 3, 2016 49% 46% 3 1,242 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[199] September 1–2, 2016 42% 40% 2 2,001 ± 2%
Template:Sad[200] August 26 – September 1, 2016 39% 40% 1 1,804 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[201] August 26 – September 1, 2016 44% 43% 1 861 ± 3.4%
Template:Sad[202] August 28–30, 2016 48% 42% 6 1,011 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[203] August 24–30, 2016 49% 46% 3 1,162 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[204] August 25–29, 2016 40% 39% 1 1,404 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[205] August 24–29, 2016 48% 41% 7 1,000 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[206] August 23–29, 2016 50% 47% 3 1,173 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[207] August 23–29, 2016 42% 45% 3 2,500 ± 2.5%
Template:Sad[208] August 26–28, 2016 48% 43% 5 881 ± 3.3%
Template:Sad[209] August 25–28, 2016 49% 42% 7 689 ± 3.5%
Template:Sad[210] August 22–28, 2016 48% 42% 6 24,104 ± 1.0%
Template:Sad[211] August 22–28, 2016 50% 47% 3 1,145 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[212] August 21–27, 2016 50% 47% 3 1,682 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[213] August 24–26, 2016 43% 40% 3 2,007 ± 2%
Template:Sad[214] August 22–25, 2016 41% 36% 5 1,154 ± 3%
Template:Sad[215] August 20–24, 2016 42% 35% 7 1,049 ± 2.9%
Template:Sad[216] August 18–24, 2016 48% 49% 1 1,720 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[217] August 18–24, 2016 51% 41% 10 1,496 ± 2.5%
Template:Sad[218] August 18–24, 2016 44% 44% Tied 2,434 ± 2.3%
Template:Sad[219] August 19–23, 2016 47% 44% 3 1,080 ± 4.1%
Template:Sad[220] August 17–23, 2016 48% 48% Tied 1,737 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[221] August 18–22, 2016 45% 33% 12 1,115 ± 3%
Template:Sad[222] August 16–22, 2016 48% 48% Tied 1,752 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[223] August 15–21, 2016 48% 47% 1 1,795 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[224] August 15–21, 2016 50% 42% 8 17,451 ± 1.1%
Template:Sad[225] August 17–20, 2016 47% 42% 5 994 ± 3.2%
Template:Sad[226] August 16–20, 2016 44% 38% 6 2,001 ± 2%
Template:Sad[227] August 14–20, 2016 48% 47% 1 1,191 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[228] August 14–20, 2016 43% 45% 2 2,385 ± 2.8%
Template:Sad[229] August 13–17, 2016 41% 36% 5 1,049 ± 2.8%
Template:Sad[230] August 11–17, 2016 50% 46% 4 1,009 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[231] August 9–16, 2016 51% 44% 7 1,069 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[232] August 11–15, 2016 41% 35% 6 1,132 ± 3%
Template:Sad[233] August 9–15, 2016 50% 40% 10 1,000 ± 3.1%
Template:Sad[234] August 9–15, 2016 51% 44% 7 1,035 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[235] August 11–14, 2016 44% 37% 7 2,001 ± 2%
Template:Sad[236] August 8–14, 2016 50% 41% 9 15,179 ± 1.2%
Template:Sad[237] August 7–14, 2016 50% 45% 5 975 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[238] August 7–13, 2016 49% 46% 3 1,403 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[239] August 3–10, 2016 49% 45% 4 1,077 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[240] August 6–10, 2016 42% 36% 6 974 ± 2.9%
Template:Sad[241] August 6–9, 2016 48% 41% 7 1,300 ± 4.2%
Template:Sad[242] August 3–9, 2016 48% 46% 2 1,002 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[243] August 5–8, 2016 50% 44% 6 749 ± 3.6%
Template:Sad[244] August 4–8, 2016 42% 35% 7 1,152 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[245] August 2–8, 2016 49% 45% 4 993 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[246] August 4–7, 2016 45% 39% 6 798 ± 3.9%
Template:Sad[247] August 1–7, 2016 49% 44% 5 1,407 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[248] August 1–7, 2016 51% 41% 10 11,480 ± 1.2%
Template:Sad[249] July 31 – August 6, 2016 50% 43% 7 1,036 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[250] July 31 – August 6, 2016 45% 44% 1 2,146 ± 2.8%
Template:Sad[251] August 4–5, 2016 46% 37% 9 2,001 ± 2%
Template:Sad[252] August 1–4, 2016 51% 44% 7 1,002 ± 3.5%
Template:Sad[253] July 31 – August 4, 2016 42% 39% 3 1,154 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[254] July 29 – August 4, 2016 50% 44% 6 1,060 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[255] July 29 – August 4, 2016 46% 39% 7 921 ± 3.4%
Template:Sad[256] August 1–3, 2016 48% 33% 15 983 ± 3.1%
Template:Sad[257] July 31 – August 3, 2016 47% 38% 9 800 ± 3.46%
Template:Sad[258] July 30 – August 3, 2016 43% 39% 4 1,072 ± 3.5%
Template:Sad[259] July 28 – August 3, 2016 45% 44% 1 2,175 ± 2.4%
Template:Sad[260] July 27 – August 2, 2016 49% 46% 3 989 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[261] July 31 – August 2, 2016 49% 39% 10 1,022 ± 3%
Template:Sad[262] July 27 – August 2, 2016 44% 45% 1 2,186 ± 2.2%
Template:Sad[263] July 31 – August 1, 2016 46% 43% 3 1,300 ± 4%
Template:Sad[264] July 28 – August 1, 2016 43% 35% 8 1,289 ± 3%
Template:Sad[265] July 26 – August 1, 2016 43% 45% 2 2,171 ± 2.5%
Template:Sad[266] July 29–31, 2016 52% 43% 9 1,003 ± 3%
Template:Sad[267] July 29–31, 2016 47% 41% 6 1,131 ± 3%
Template:Sad[268] July 25–31, 2016 50% 42% 8 12,742 ± 1.2%
Template:Sad[269] July 29–30, 2016 43% 40% 3 1,931 ± 2%
Template:Sad[270] July 29–30, 2016 50% 45% 5 1,276 ± 2.7%

Polls conducted in 2016

Polls conducted in 2015

Polls conducted in 2014

Polls conducted in 2013

Three-way race

Poll source Date Hillary Clinton
Democratic
Donald Trump
Republican
Gary Johnson
Libertarian
Leading by
(points)
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Template:Sad[271] November 1–7, 2016 38% 36% 5% 2 26,574 ± 0.65%
Template:Sad[272] November 1–4, 2016 48% 44% 6% 4 1,151 ± 2.9%
Template:Sad[273] October 20 – November 1, 2016 44% 35% 8% 9 2,269 ± 1.9%
Template:Sad[274] October 20–24, 2016 39% 34% 6% 5 21,240 ±0.73%
Template:Sad[275] October 20–21, 2016 46% 40% 5% 6 990 ±%
Template:Sad[276] October 15–19, 2016 39% 34% 6% 5 22,826 ±0.70%
Template:Sad[277] October 10–14, 2016 38% 33% 7% 5 19,900 ±0.75%
Template:Sad[278] September 28 – October 2, 2016 47% 41% 3% 6 609 ±3.6%
Template:Sad[279] September 27 – October 3, 2016 39% 34% 7% 5 22,006 ±0.71%
Template:Sad[144] September 27, 2016 47% 43% 6% 4 3,386 ±1.7%
Template:Sad[280] September 14–20, 2016 36% 35% 8% 1 20,864 ±0.73%

Four-way race

Poll source Date Hillary Clinton
Democratic
Donald Trump
Republican
Gary Johnson
Libertarian
Jill Stein
Green
Leading by
(points)
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Template:Sad[5] November 4–7, 2016 45% 41% 5% 2% 4 3,677 ± 1.7%
Template:Sad[321] November 4–7, 2016 49% 45% 4% 1% 4 940 ± 3.2%
Template:Sad[6] November 4–6, 2016 44% 41% 4% 2% 3 799 ± 3.5%
Template:Sad[322] November 3–6, 2016 47% 43% 3% 2% 4 16,639 ± 0.8%
Template:Sad[7] November 3–6, 2016 47% 43% 4% 1% 4 2,220 ± 2.5%
Template:Sad[8] November 3–6, 2016 48% 44% 3% 2% 4 1,295 ± 2.5%
Template:Sad[9] November 3–6, 2016 41% 43% 6% 2% 2 1,026 ± 3.1%
Template:Sad[10] November 3–6, 2016 50% 44% 4% 1% 6 802 ± 3.6%
Template:Sad[11] November 2–6, 2016 42% 39% 6% 3% 3 2,195 ± 2.4%
Template:Sad[12] November 2–6, 2016 45% 41% 5% 2% 4 1,426 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[323] November 2–6, 2016 45% 43% 4% 2% 2 1,500 ± 2.5%
Template:Sad[13] October 31– November 6, 2016 47% 41% 6% 3% 6 70,194 ± 1.0%
Template:Sad[324] November 4–5, 2016 45% 42% 8% 2% 3 1,482 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[15] November 3–5, 2016 44% 40% 6% 2% 4 1,282 ± 2.73%
Template:Sad[16] November 2–5, 2016 47% 43% 4% 2% 4 1,937 ± 2.5%
Template:Sad[17] November 2–5, 2016 43% 44% 5% 2% 1 903 ± 3.3%
Template:Sad[325] November 1–5, 2016 48% 44% 4% 2% 4 1,009 ± 3.1%
Template:Sad[20] November 1–4, 2016 48% 43% 4% 2% 5 1,685 ± 2.5%
Template:Sad[21] November 1–4, 2016 44% 44% 5% 2% Tied 804 ± 3.5%
Template:Sad[22] October 31 – November 4, 2016 43% 39% 6% 2% 4 2,244 ± 2.4%
Template:Sad[326] November 1–3, 2016 44% 44% 4% 1% Tied 1,500 ± 2.5%
Template:Sad[25] November 1–3, 2016 45% 43% 5% 2% 2 1,107 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[26] November 1–3, 2016 44% 43% 6% 2% 1 940 ± 3.2%
Template:Sad[29] October 30 – November 3, 2016 44% 44% 4% 2% Tied 898 ± 3.3%
Template:Sad[28] October 31 – November 3, 2016 47% 43% 4% 2% 4 1,419 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[27] October 30 – November 3, 2016 44% 37% 6% 2% 7 2,021 ± 2.6%
Template:Sad[327] November 1–2, 2016 47% 45% 3% 1% 2 2,435 ± 2.0%
Template:Sad[328] October 31 – November 2, 2016 42% 45% 4% 1% 3 1,500 ± 2.5%
Template:Sad[31] October 30 – November 2, 2016 47% 44% 3% 2% 3 1,151 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[33] October 29 – November 2, 2016 44% 44% 4% 2% Tied 867 ± 3.4%
Template:Sad[32] October 29 – November 2, 2016 45% 37% 5% 2% 8 1,858 ± 2.6%
Template:Sad[329] October 30 – November 1, 2016 44% 44% 5% 2% Tied 1,500 ± 2.5%
Template:Sad[38] October 30 – November 1, 2016 46% 43% 4% 2% 3 1,233 ± 3.2%
Template:Sad[35] October 29 – November 1, 2016 47% 45% 3% 2% 2 1,167 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[36] October 28 – November 1, 2016 45% 42% 5% 4% 3 862 ± 3.4%
Template:Sad[37] October 28 – November 1, 2016 55% 47% 5% 2% 8 1,772 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[39] October 27 – November 1, 2016 44% 44% 4% 2% Tied 862 ± 3.4%
Template:Sad[42] October 31, 2016 46% 45% 4% 2% 1 5,360 ± 1.3%
Template:Sad[43] October 28–31, 2016 46% 46% 3% 2% Tied 1,167 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[330] October 27–31, 2016 45% 45% 5% 2% Tied 1,500 ± 2.5%
Template:Sad[44] October 26–31, 2016 45% 44% 4% 2% 1 1,018 ± 3.2%
Template:Sad[45] October 29–30, 2016 42% 39% 7% 5% 3 1,772 ±2.0%
Template:Sad[47] October 27–30, 2016 45% 46% 3% 2% 1 1,167 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[48] October 26–30, 2016 43% 37% 6% 1% 6 1,264 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[331] October 26–30, 2016 45% 42% 5% 2% 3 1,500 ± 2.5%
Template:Sad[49] October 25–30, 2016 45% 44% 4% 2% 1 993 ± 3.2%
Template:Sad[51] October 24–30, 2016 47% 41% 6% 3% 6 40,816 ±1.0%
Template:Sad[52] October 26–29, 2016 46% 45% 4% 2% 1 1,165 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[53] October 24–29, 2016 44% 42% 6% 2% 2 1,039 ± 3.3%
Template:Sad[332] October 27–28, 2016 37% 37% 6% 2% Tied 943 ± 3.7%
Template:Sad[55] October 27–28, 2016 42% 39% 8% 4% 3 1,794 ± 2.0%
Template:Sad[56] October 25–28, 2016 46% 45% 4% 2% 1 1,160 ± 3.0%
Template:Sad[57] October 23–28, 2016 45% 41% 7% 2% 4 1,013 ± 3.3%
Template:Sad[333] October 25–27, 2016 45% 45% 3% 2% Tied 1,500 ±2.5%
Template:Sad[58] October 24–27, 2016 47% 45% 4% 2% 2 1,148 ±3.0%
Template:Sad[59] October 22–27, 2016 44% 41% 7% 2% 3 973 ± 3.3%
Template:Sad[334] October 25–26, 2016 46% 45% 3% 1% 1 1,824 ±2.3%
Template:Sad[335] October 24–26, 2016 45% 44% 4% 1% 1 1,500 ±2.5%
Template:Sad[62] October 23–26, 2016 48% 44% 4% 1% 4 1,150 ±3.0%
Template:Sad[63] October 22–26, 2016 46% 41% 4% 2% 5 1,376 ±3.1%
Template:Sad[336] October 22–26, 2016 45% 34% 6% 2% 11 1,050 ±%
Template:Sad[64] October 21–26, 2016 43% 41% 8% 2% 2 945 ± 3.3%
Template:Sad[337] October 23–25, 2016 44% 43% 4% 1% 1 1,500 ±2.5%
Template:Sad[66] October 22–25, 2016 44% 41% 7% 3% 3 1,221 ±2.5%
Template:Sad[67] October 22–25, 2016 48% 42% 5% 1% 6 1,135 ±3.0%
Template:Sad[68] October 20–25, 2016 46% 40% 6% 3% 6 2,120 ± 2.4%
Template:Sad[69] October 20–25, 2016 42% 41% 8% 3% 1 921 ± 3.3%
Template:Sad[72] October 21–24, 2016 43% 34% 7% 2% 9 804 ± 3.5%
Template:Sad[73] October 21–24, 2016 49% 40% 5% 2% 9 1,119 ±3.0%
Template:Sad[74] October 21–24, 2016 50% 38% 5% 2% 12 900 ± 3.27%
Template:Sad[75] October 20–24, 2016 51% 37% 6% 2% 14 1,546 ± 2.75%
Template:Sad[76] October 20–24, 2016 47% 38% 4% 2% 9 1,000 ±3.0%
Template:Sad[77] October 20–24, 2016 42% 38% 7% 2% 4 1,170 ±3.3%
Template:Sad[338] October 20–24, 2016 43% 42% 5% 2% 1 1,500 ±2.5%
Template:Sad[78] October 19–24, 2016 42% 41% 8% 3% 1 873 ± 3.6%
Template:Sad[80] October 20–23, 2016 50% 38% 5% 2% 12 1,155 ±3.0%
Template:Sad[81] October 20–23, 2016 49% 44% 3% 2% 5 779 ±3.5%
Template:Sad[339] October 19–23, 2016 41% 43% 5% 3% 2 1,500 ±2.5%
Template:Sad[82] October 18–23, 2016 41% 41% 7% 3% Tied 815 ± 3.6%
Template:Sad[340] October 18–23, 2016 45% 40% 6% 1% 5 569 ±4.1%
Template:Sad[83] October 17–23, 2016 46% 41% 7% 3% 5 32,225 ± 1.0%
Template:Sad[85] October 20–22, 2016 50% 38% 5% 2% 12 1,391 ±3.5%
Template:Sad[86] October 17–22, 2016 41% 43% 7% 3% 2 783 ± 3.6%
Template:Sad[87] October 16–21, 2016 40% 42% 7% 4% 2 791 ±3.6%
Template:Sad[88] October 19–20, 2016 42% 36% 9% 4% 6 1,395 ±3.0%
Template:Sad[341] October 18–20, 2016 41% 43% 5% 3% 2 1,500 ±2.5%
Template:Sad[92] October 14–20, 2016 43% 39% 6% 2% 4 1,640 ±3.0%
Template:Sad[342] October 17–19, 2016 40% 43% 6% 3% 3 1,500 ±2.5%
Template:Sad[93] October 14–19, 2016 40% 41% 7% 5% 1 779 ±3.6%
Template:Sad[94] October 17–18, 2016 47% 40% 7% 1% 7 1,007 ±3.1%
Template:Sad[95] October 15–18, 2016 42% 38% 6% 1% 4 1,300 ±3.9%
Template:Sad[96] October 13–18, 2016 40% 41% 8% 6% 1 782 ±3.6%
Template:Sad[97] October 15–17, 2016 45% 39% 5% 3% 6 912 ±3.0%
Template:Sad[98] October 14–17, 2016 47% 38% 8% 3% 9 1,006 ±3.1%
Template:Sad[343] October 13–17, 2016 42% 41% 7% 2% 1 1,500 ±2.5%
Template:Sad[99] October 13–17, 2016 42% 38% 6% 2% 4 1,190 ±3.2%
Template:Sad[102] October 14–16, 2016 50% 38% 5% 2% 12 805 ±3.5%
Template:Sad[103] October 12–16, 2016 47% 38% 8% 3% 9 1,411 ±3.0%
Template:Sad[344] October 12–16, 2016 43% 41% 5% 2% 2 1,500 ±2.5%
Template:Sad[104] October 10–16, 2016 46% 40% 8% 4% 6 24,804 ± 1.0%
Template:Sad[106] October 13–15, 2016 42% 36% 10% 3% 6 1,737 ±2.0%
Template:Sad[345] October 11–14, 2016 46% 36% 5% 2% 10 845 ±3.4%
Template:Sad[346] October 11–13, 2016 41% 43% 6% 2% 2 1,500 ±2.5%
Template:Sad[107] October 10–13, 2016 48% 37% 7% 2% 11 1,000 ±3.1%
Template:Sad[108] October 10–13, 2016 47% 43% 5% 2% 4 740 ±4.0%
Template:Sad[109] October 9–13, 2016 46% 41% 6% 2% 5 1,011 ±3.1%
Template:Sad[110] October 8–13, 2016 47% 39% 8% 2% 8 1,000 ±3.1%
Template:Sad[112] October 10–12, 2016 45% 38% 7% 3% 7 917 ±3.0%
Template:Sad[347] October 10–12, 2016 41% 43% 6% 2% 2 1,500 ±2.5%
Template:Sad[348] October 10–11, 2016 47% 41% 7% 3% 6 953 ±3.2%
Template:Sad[349] October 9–11, 2016 43% 39% 7% 2% 4 1,500 ±2.5%
Template:Sad[113] October 10, 2016 42% 37% 10% 3% 5 1,757 ±3.0%
Template:Sad[114] October 8–10, 2016 45% 36% 8% 2% 9 806 ±3.5%
Template:Sad[350] October 6–10, 2016 44% 39% 7% 2% 5 1,500 ±2.5%
Template:Sad[115] October 6–10, 2016 44% 37% 6% 2% 7 2,363 ±2.3%
Template:Sad[117] September 27 – October 10, 2016 46% 39% 10% 4% 7 3,616 ± 2.9%
Template:Sad[118] October 8–9, 2016 46% 35% 9% 2% 11 422 ±4.6%
Template:Sad[351] October 5–9, 2016 45% 38% 7% 2% 7 1,500 ±2.5%
Template:Sad[352] October 5–9, 2016 49% 38% 2% 0% 11 886 ±3.9%
Template:Sad[119] October 3–9, 2016 46% 41% 8% 3% 5 23,329 ±1.0%
Template:Sad[121] October 8, 2016 42% 38% 8% 3% 4 1,390 ±3.0%
Template:Sad[122] October 7–8, 2016 44% 38% 5% 1% 6 1,300 ±4.3%
Template:Sad[123] October 5–6, 2016 41% 39% 9% 3% 2 1,775 ±2.0%
Template:Sad[124] October 5–6, 2016 45% 40% 6% 2% 5 1,064 ±3.0%
Template:Sad[353] October 4–6, 2016 43% 42% 7% 2% 1 1,500 ±2.5%
Template:Sad[125] October 3–6, 2016 44% 42% 6% 2% 2 896 ±3.0%
Template:Sad[126] September 30 – October 6, 2016 42% 37% 8% 2% 5 1,695 ±3.0%
Template:Sad[354] October 3–5, 2016 41% 43% 8% 3% 2 1,500 ±2.5%
Template:Sad[355] October 3, 2016 44% 44% 5% 1% Tied 1,690 ±2.5%
Template:Sad[130] October 1–3, 2016 43% 40% 5% 3% 3 911 ±3.9%
Template:Sad[131] September 29 – October 3, 2016 42% 36% 8% 2% 6 1,239 ±3.2%
Template:Sad[356] September 29 – October 3, 2016 42% 41% 9% 2% 1 1,500 ±2.5%
Template:Sad[132] September 30 – October 2, 2016 42% 36% 9% 3% 6 1,778 ±2.0%
Template:Sad[133] September 28 – October 2, 2016 45% 36% 11% 3% 9 385 ±5.0%
Template:Sad[134] September 28 – October 2, 2016 45% 41% 8% 3% 4 1,217 ±3.0%
Template:Sad[135] September 28 – October 2, 2016 47% 42% 7% 2% 5 N/A ±N/A%
Template:Sad[357] September 28 – October 2, 2016 43% 40% 8% 2% 3 1,500 ±2.5%
Template:Sad[136] September 26 – October 2, 2016 46% 40% 9% 3% 6 26,925 ±1.0%
Template:Sad[139] September 27–29, 2016 43% 40% 8% 4% 3 911 ±3.0%
Template:Sad[140] September 23–29, 2016 42% 38% 7% 3% 4 2,501 ±2.0%
Template:Sad[358] September 26–28, 2016 42% 41% 7% 2% 1 1,500 ±2.5%
Template:Sad[146] September 26–27, 2016 41% 38% 8% 4% 3 1,253 ±3.0%
Template:Sad[359] September 1–27, 2016 49% 41% 4% 1% 8 2,010 ±2.8%
Template:Sad[148] September 22–26, 2016 42% 38% 7% 2% 4 1,041 ±3.5%
Template:Sad[149] September 22–25, 2016 44% 43% 8% 2% 1 1,115 ±2.9%
Template:Sad[150] September 22–25, 2016 46% 42% 8% 2% 4 729 ±3.6%
Template:Sad[151] September 19–25, 2016 45% 40% 10% 3% 5 13,598 ±1.1%
Template:Sad[154] September 22–24, 2016 38% 39% 9% 4% 1 1,712 ±2.0%
Template:Sad[360] September 22–24, 2016 44% 41% 5% 2% 3 948 ±3.8%
Template:Sad[155] September 21–24, 2016 41% 43% 8% 4% 2 1,002 ±3.1%
Template:Sad[156] September 19–22, 2016 46% 44% 5% 1% 2 651 ±4.5%
Template:Sad[361] September 18–22, 2016 45% 43% 6% 2% 2 1,017 ±3.1%
Template:Sad[157] September 16–22, 2016 39% 37% 7% 2% 2 1,559 ±3.0%
Template:Sad[362] September 20–21, 2016 39% 44% 8% 2% 5 1,000 ±3.0%
Template:Sad[363] September 20, 2016 44% 40% 5% 2% 4 1,560 ±2.5%
Template:Sad[160] September 15–20, 2016 45% 39% 10% 4% 6 758 ±3.6%
Template:Sad[162] September 18–19, 2016 40% 38% 7% 2% 2 936 ±4.0%
Template:Sad[163] September 16–19, 2016 43% 37% 9% 3% 6 922 ±3.2%
Template:Sad[364] September 15–19, 2016 42% 37% 5% 3% 5 1,000 ±3.0%
Template:Sad[164] September 15–19, 2016 37% 39% 7% 2% 2 1,111 ±3.4%
Template:Sad[165] September 15–19, 2016 45% 39% 9% 2% 6 1,251 ±2.5%
Template:Sad[168] September 12–18, 2016 45% 40% 10% 4% 5 13,230 ±1.2%
Template:Sad[365] September 15–16, 2016 42% 40% 8% 3% 2 1,639 ±2.0%
Template:Sad[366] September 12–16, 2016 46% 41% 9% 4% 5 1,005 ±3.0%
Template:Sad[173] September 11–14, 2016 41% 40% 8% 3% 1 867 ±3.0%
Template:Sad[367] September 12–13, 2016 40% 42% 7% 2% 2 1,000 ±3.0%
Template:Sad[368] September 11–13, 2016 41% 43% 9% 2% 2 800 ±3.4%
Template:Sad[176] September 10–13, 2016 42% 40% 5% 3% 2 1,087 ±4.0%
Template:Sad[177] September 9–13, 2016 42% 42% 8% 4% Tied 1,433 ±3.0%
Template:Sad[178] September 8–13, 2016 41% 39% 13% 4% 2 960 ±3.2%
Template:Sad[181] September 8–12, 2016 39% 39% 8% 2% Tied 1,127 ±3.3%
Template:Sad[183] August 16 – September 12, 2016 45% 38% 10% 4% 2 3,941 ±2.6%
Template:Sad[184] September 5–11, 2016 42% 40% 11% 4% 2 16,220 ±1.1%
Template:Sad[369] September 7–8, 2016 43% 40% 7% 1% 3 2,348 ±2.0%
Template:Sad[186] September 6–8, 2016 43% 41% 10% 3% 2 1,710 ±2.0%
Template:Sad[187] September 5–8, 2016 46% 41% 9% 2% 5 642 ±4.5%
Template:Sad[370] September 6–7, 2016 43% 39% 9% 2% 4 1,000 ±3.0%
Template:Sad[191] September 4–6, 2016 40% 38% 7% 5% 2 1,077 ±4.7%
Template:Sad[193] September 1–5, 2016 40% 38% 8% 3% 2 1,084 ±3.5%
Template:Sad[195] September 1–4, 2016 43% 45% 7% 2% 2 786 ±3.5%
Template:Sad[371] August 31 – September 4, 2016 44% 41% 8% 3% 3 1,025 ±3.1%
Template:Sad[196] August 29 – September 4, 2016 41% 37% 12% 4% 4 32,226 ±1.0%
Template:Sad[199] September 1–2, 2016 38% 36% 9% 4% 2 2,001 ±2.0%
Template:Sad[372] August 28 – September 1, 2016 42% 40% 11% 3% 2 1,000 ±3.1%
Template:Sad[200] August 26 – September 1, 2016 39% 39% 7% 2% Tied 1,804 ±3.0%
Template:Sad[201] August 26 – September 1, 2016 39% 39% 12% 3% Tied 861 ±3.4%
Template:Sad[373] August 29–30, 2016 39% 40% 7% 3% 1 1,000 ±3.0%
Template:Sad[202] August 28–30, 2016 41% 39% 9% 4% 2 1,011 ±3.0%
Template:Sad[374] August 27–29, 2016 42% 37% 7% 3% 5 1,119 ±4.0%
Template:Sad[204] August 25–29, 2016 40% 38% 6% 2% 2 1,404 ±3.0%
Template:Sad[205] August 25–29, 2016 42% 35% 9% 4% 7 1,000 ±3.0%
Template:Sad[209] August 25–28, 2016 43% 36% 8% 2% 7 689 ±3.5%
Template:Sad[210] August 22–28, 2016 41% 37% 11% 5% 4 24,104 ±1.0%
Template:Sad[213] August 24–26, 2016 39% 37% 8% 3% 2 2,007 ±2.0%
Template:Sad[214] August 22–25, 2016 39% 36% 7% 3% 3 1,154 ±3.0%
Template:Sad[375] August 23–24, 2016 42% 38% 9% 2% 4 1,000 ±3.0%
Template:Sad[215] August 20–24, 2016 39% 36% 7% 2% 3 1,049 ±2.9%
Template:Sad[217] August 18–24, 2016 45% 38% 10% 4% 7 1,498 ±2.5%
Template:Sad[376] August 22–23, 2016 42% 41% 4% 1% 1 1,493 ±2.5%
Template:Sad[219] August 19–23, 2016 42% 38% 6% 4% 4 1,080 ±4.1%
Template:Sad[221] August 18–22, 2016 41% 33% 7% 2% 8 1,115 ±3.0%
Template:Sad[224] August 15–21, 2016 43% 38% 11% 5% 5 17,451 ±1.1%
Template:Sad[226] August 16–20, 2016 39% 36% 8% 4% 3 2,001 ±2.0%
Template:Sad[229] August 13–17, 2016 39% 35% 7% 2% 4 1,049 ±2.8%
Template:Sad[377] August 15–16, 2016 41% 39% 9% 3% 2 1,000 ±3.0%
Template:Sad[378] August 11–16, 2016 41% 35% 7% 3% 6 1,076 ±4.1%
Template:Sad[379] August 9–16, 2016 41% 37% 10% 4% 4 1,567 ±2.8%
Template:Sad[233] August 9–15, 2016 45% 37% 8% 4% 8 1,000 ±3.1%
Template:Sad[236] August 8–14, 2016 43% 37% 11% 4% 6 15,179 ±1.2%
Template:Sad[380] August 12–13, 2016 38% 36% 8% 5% 2 1,277 ±2.8%
Template:Sad[235] August 11–14, 2016 39% 33% 9% 4% 6 2,001 ±2.0%
Template:Sad[240] August 6–10, 2016 40% 35% 7% 3% 5 974 ±2.9%
Template:Sad[381] August 9–10, 2016 43% 40% 8% 2% 3 1,000 ±3.0%
Template:Sad[382] August 9, 2016 42% 37% 9% 3% 5 2,832 ±1.8%
Template:Sad[241] August 6–9, 2016 42% 36% 9% 2% 6 1,300 ±4.2%
Template:Sad[243] August 5–8, 2016 44% 40% 9% 4% 4 749 ±3.6%
Template:Sad[246] August 4–7, 2016 45% 39% 2% 1% 6 1,000 ±3.9%
Template:Sad[383] August 4–7, 2016 46% 34% 7% 2% 12 803 ±3.5%
Template:Sad[248] August 1–7, 2016 44% 38% 10% 4% 6 11,480 ±1.2%
Template:Sad[251] August 4–5, 2016 41% 33% 9% 5% 8 2,001 ±2.0%
Template:Sad[252] August 1–4, 2016 45% 37% 8% 4% 8 1,002 ±3.5%
Template:Sad[253] July 31 – August 4, 2016 42% 40% 6% 3% 2 1,154 ±3.0%
Template:Sad[255] July 29 – August 4, 2016 39% 35% 12% 5% 4 851 ±3.4%
Template:Sad[256] August 1–3, 2016 45% 31% 10% 6% 14 983 ±3.1%
Template:Sad[257] July 31 – August 3, 2016 43% 34% 10% 5% 9 800 ±3.5%
Template:Sad[258] July 30 – August 3, 2016 42% 38% 6% 2% 4 1,072 ±3.5%
Template:Sad[384] August 1–2, 2016 44% 40% 6% 3% 4 1,000 ±3.0%
Template:Sad[263] July 31 – August 1, 2016 41% 36% 8% 4% 5 1,300 ±4.0%
Template:Sad[266] July 29–31, 2016 45% 37% 9% 5% 8 894 ±3.5%
Template:Sad[268] July 25–31, 2016 43% 38% 9% 4% 5 12,742 ±1.2%
Template:Sad[270] July 29–30, 2016 46% 41% 6% 2% 5 1,276 ±2.7%
Template:Sad[385] July 29, 2016 46% 31% 7% 2% 15 956 ±3.2%
Template:Sad[386] July 25–29, 2016 37% 37% 5% 1% Tied 1,788 ±2.4%
Template:Sad[387] July 23–24, 2016 40% 38% 5% 3% 2 1,300 ±4.5%
Template:Sad[388] July 22–24, 2016 39% 44% 9% 3% 5 882 ±3.5%
Template:Sad[389] July 21–24, 2016 46% 42% 1% 1% 4 818 ±4.0%
Template:Sad[390] July 18–24, 2016 39% 41% 10% 5% 2 12,931 ±1.2%
Template:Sad[391] July 22, 2016 39% 34% 8% 3% 5 909 ±3.3%
Template:Sad[392] July 21–22, 2016 40% 39% 3% 2% 1 912 ±N/A%
Template:Sad[393] July 16–20, 2016 39% 35% 7% 3% 4 1,522 ±2.9%
Template:Sad[394] July 15–17, 2016 40% 37% 5% 4% 3 1,300 ±4.2%
Template:Sad[395] July 11–17, 2016 39% 40% 10% 5% 1 9,436 ±1.4%
Template:Sad[396] July 14–16, 2016 45% 43% 5% 1% 2 688 ±3.7%
Template:Sad[397] July 13–16, 2016 44% 41% 7% 2% 3 1,007 ±3.1%
Template:Sad[398] July 13–16, 2016 42% 37% 13% 5% 5 872 ±3.5%
Template:Sad[399] July 11–14, 2016 39% 35% 9% 3% 4 1,000 ±N/A%
Template:Sad[400] July 11–14, 2016 42% 38% 8% 5% 4 1,003 ±3.5%
Template:Sad[401] July 9–13, 2016 41% 35% 11% 6% 6 1,000 ±3.1%
Template:Sad[402] July 9–11, 2016 40% 37% 5% 2% 3 1,300 ±4.2%
Template:Sad[403] July 7–11, 2016 40% 36% 6% 2% 4 837 ±3.3%
Template:Sad[404] July 4–10, 2016 40% 38% 11% 6% 2 7,869 ±1.4%
Template:Sad[405] July 7–9, 2016 41% 29% 9% 2% 12 781 ±3.5%
Template:Sad[406] July 5–9, 2016 40% 35% 10% 5% 5 1,249 ±3.0%
Template:Sad[407] July 2–6, 2016 42% 33% 6% 4% 9 1,345 ±2.8%
Template:Sad[408] July 2–4, 2016 42% 37% 4% 3% 5 1,300 ±3.9%
Template:Sad[409] June 27 – July 3, 2016 41% 38% 9% 5% 3 10,072 ±1.3%
Template:Sad[410] June 26–29, 2016 39% 35% 8% 3% 4 1,000 ±3.0%
Template:Sad[411] June 25–29, 2016 42% 31% 5% 4% 11 1,247 ±2.8%
Template:Sad[412] June 24–29, 2016 37% 36% 9% 5% 1 837 ±3.5%
Template:Sad[413] June 27–28, 2016 45% 41% 5% 2% 4 947 ±3.2%
Template:Sad[414] June 21–27, 2016 39% 37% 8% 4% 2 1,610 ±2.4%
Template:Sad[415] June 20–26, 2016 42% 36% 9% 5% 6 5,818 ±1.8%
Template:Sad[416] June 20–23, 2016 47% 37% 7% 3% 10 836 ±4.0%
Template:Sad[417] June 19–23, 2016 39% 38% 10% 6% 1 1,000 ±3.1%
Template:Sad[418] June 18–22, 2016 43% 34% 6% 5% 9 1,339 ±2.8%
Template:Sad[419] June 16–19, 2016 42% 38% 9% 7% 4 891 ±3.5%
Template:Sad[420] June 15–19, 2016 42% 36% 9% 4% 6 803 ±3.5%
Template:Sad[421] June 13–19, 2016 42% 38% 9% 5% 4 16,135 ±1.1%
Template:Sad[422] June 11–15, 2016 39% 29% 6% 4% 10 1,323 ±2.8%
Template:Sad[423] June 6–12, 2016 42% 38% 9% 5% 4 10,604 ±1.3%
Template:Sad[424] June 8, 2016 39% 36% 6% 4% 3 1,408 ±2.7%
Template:Sad[425] May 30 – June 5, 2016 40% 34% 6% 2% 6 837 ±3.5%
Template:Sad[426] May 30 – June 5, 2016 39% 40% 9% 4% 1 9,240 ±1.4%
Template:Sad[427] May 24–30, 2016 40% 38% 5% 3% 2 1,561 ±2.5%

Five-way race

Poll source Date Hillary Clinton
Democratic
Donald Trump
Republican
Gary Johnson
Libertarian
Jill Stein
Green
Evan McMullin
Independent
Leading by
(points)
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Template:Sad[336] October 22–26, 2016 42% 31% 6% 1% 5% 11 1,050 ±%
Template:Sad[142] September 27–28, 2016 44% 40% 6% 1% 2% 4 933 ±3.2%
Template:Sad[145] September 26–27, 2016 44% 39% 6% 2% 1% 5 1,833
Template:Sad[208] August 26–28, 2016 42% 37% 6% 4% 1% 5 881 ±3.3%

Post election analysis

BBC News questioned whether polling should be abandoned due to its abject failure.[1] Forbes magazine contributor astrophysicist Ethan Siegel performed a scientific analysis and raised whether the statistical population sampled for the polling was inaccurate, and cited the cautionary adage "Garbage in, garbage out".[2] He concluded there may have been sampling bias on the part of the pollsters.[2] Siegel compared the 2016 election to the failure of prognosticator Arthur Henning in the "Dewey Defeats Truman" incident from the 1948 presidential election.[2]

A particular case was the USC/Los Angeles Times Daybreak tracking poll, which was different from other polls as it had Donald Trump in the lead more often than not.[428] The poll’s findings caused skepticism, especially from Democrats, who have denounced it and often criticized the LA Times for running it. Before the election, Nate Silver deemed as positive the poll allowed people to assign themselves a probability of voting for either candidate instead of saying they’re 100 percent sure and stated that if people are "going to browbeat a pollster, [let's] do it to a pollster who is doing things cheaply—some of the robopolls qualify—and not one that’s trying to move the ball forward, like the LA Times poll."[429] The LA Times concluded after the preliminary results of the election were published: "That doesn't necessarily mean that a poll conducted online, the way the Daybreak poll is, necessarily will be more accurate than polls conducted by phone. But it is yet another indication that polling needs more, diverse ways to look at public opinion, not fewer."[430]

See also

General election polling

Democratic primary polling

Republican primary polling

References

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