2014 New Brunswick general election

2014 New Brunswick general election

September 22, 2014 (2014-09-22)
49 seats in the Legislative Assembly of New Brunswick 25 seats needed for a majority
Turnout	64.65%
Majority party Minority party   175x175px Leader Brian Gallant David Alward Party Liberal Progressive Conservative Leader since October 27, 2012 October 18, 2008 Leader's seat Shediac Bay-Dieppe Carleton Last election 13 seats, 34.42% 42 seats, 48.84% Seats before 13 41 Seats won 27 21 Seat change 14 20 Percentage 42.73% 34.65% Swing 8.31pp 14.19pp   Third party Fourth party   175x175px 175x175px Leader David Coon Dominic Cardy Party Green New Democratic Leader since September 22, 2012 March 2, 2011 Leader's seat Fredericton South ran in Fredericton West-Hanwell (lost) Last election 0 seats, 4.54% 0 seats, 10.41% Seats before 0 0 Seats won 1 0 Seat change 1 Percentage 6.61% 12.98% Swing 2.07pp 2.57pp
350px Popular vote by riding. As this is an FPTP election, seat totals are not determined by popular vote, but instead via results by each riding.
Premier before election David Alward Progressive Conservative Premier after election Brian Gallant Liberal

The 2014 New Brunswick general election was held on September 22, 2014, to elect 49 members to the 58th New Brunswick Legislative Assembly, the governing house of the province of New Brunswick, Canada.

The 2013 redistribution reduced the size of the legislature from 55 seats to 49.

The New Brunswick Liberal Association, led by Brian Gallant, won a majority government, defeating Incumbent Premier David Alward's Progressive Conservatives, which became the second single-term government in New Brunswick's history. The New Democratic Party, led by Dominic Cardy won the highest support in its history, though failed to win any seats. As a result of these losses, both Alward and Cardy resigned as leaders of their respective parties. The Green Party of New Brunswick improved on its results from the previous election, with party leader David Coon winning the party's first seat, and becoming only the second Green politician (after British Columbia MLA Andrew J. Weaver) elected to a provincial legislature.

Fracking was a major issue in the election as a whole. Most commentators described the election as a referendum on it.

Polling in the weeks leading up to the campaign gave the Liberals a wide lead over the governing Progressive Conservatives. Some commentators openly speculated about whether the Liberals were on track to repeat the 1987 provincial election, when they won every seat in the Legislative Assembly. As the campaign progressed, however, the gap in popular support between the two parties narrowed significantly. Some attributed this in part to a television interview with CBC New Brunswick anchor Harry Forestell in which Gallant gave inaccurate numbers relating to his proposal for a tax increase on the province's wealthiest residents. In the final poll of the campaign, the Liberals and the Progressive Conservatives were tied at 40 per cent support each.

Timeline

• September 27, 2010 – The Progressive Conservatives under David Alward win 42 of 55 seats. The Liberals are reduced to 13 seats and Shawn Graham announces that he will step down as leader.
• October 25, 2010 – NDP leader Roger Duguay resigns. He was replaced by interim leader Jesse Travis.
• November 9, 2010 – Liberal leader Shawn Graham resigns. He was replaced on an interim basis by Victor Boudreau and was permanently replaced by Brian Gallant in late 2012.
• March 2, 2011 – Dominic Cardy is acclaimed as the new leader of the NDP.
• September 12, 2011 – Green leader Jack Macdougall resigns. He was replaced by interim leader Greta Doucet.
• May 16, 2012 – Resignation of Margaret-Ann Blaney as MLA of Rothesay.
• June 25, 2012 – Ted Flemming is elected MLA for Rothesay, following the resignation of Margaret-Ann Blaney.
• September 20, 2012 - Jim Parrott is expelled from the PC caucus after making statements questioning linguistic duality in the healthcare system.
• September 22, 2012 - David Coon is elected new leader of the Green Party.
• October 27, 2012 - Brian Gallant is elected leader of the New Brunswick Liberal Party.
• March 11, 2013 - Shawn Graham resigns as member for Kent.
• April 15, 2013 – Brian Gallant is elected MLA for Kent, following the resignation of Shawn Graham.
• June 6, 2013 - New electoral districts are finalized and will take effect at this election.
• April 30, 2014 - Jim Parrott rejoins PC caucus.
• June 27, 2014 - PC MLA Bev Harrison announces he will seek re-election as a New Democrat, he leaves the PC caucus to sit as an independent.
• August 18, 2014 - Premier Alward meets with Lieutenant-Governor Graydon Nicholas who grants the premier's request to dissolve the legislature effective August 21, 2014 for a general election to be held September 22, 2014.
• August 21, 2014 - New Brunswick legislature dissolved by the lieutenant-governor.
• September 22, 2014 - general election.

Results

Summary of the 2014 Legislative Assembly of New Brunswick election results

Party		Party leader	# of candidates	Seats				Popular vote
				2010	Dissolution	Elected	Change	#	%	Change
	Liberal	Brian Gallant	49	13	13	27	+14	158,848	42.72%	+8.30pp
	Progressive Conservative	David Alward	49	42	41	21	-20	128,801	34.64%	-14.20pp
	Green	David Coon	46	0	0	1	+1	24,582	6.61%	+2.07pp
	New Democratic	Dominic Cardy	49	0	0	0	±0	48,257	12.98%	+2.57pp
	People's Alliance	Kris Austin	18	0	0	0	±0	7,964	2.14%	+0.97pp
	Independent		9	0	1	0	-1	3,293	0.89%	+0.28pp
Total			220	55	55	49	-6	371,819	100%

Popular vote
Liberal			42.72%
PC			34.64%
New Democratic			12.98%
Green			6.61%
People's Alliance			2.14%
Others			0.91%

Seats summary
Liberal			55.10%
PC			42.86%
Green			2.04%

Tabulator problem and manual recount demand

The election marked the first time that the province used electronic vote tabulation machines from Dominion Voting in a provincial election. They had previously been used in New Brunswick municipal elections. On election night, the machines displayed vote totals which were verified by Elections New Brunswick officials and entered into a province-wide database for the media. By 11:45 PM, these unverified numbers were to have been replaced by totally machine-reported numbers from the tabulators themselves with no human interventions or errors possible to distort results. It was "a program processing the initial results that had a glitch", not the tabulators themselves, according to officials.

Elections New Brunswick grew uncomfortable with the human involvement and influence of the unevenly tabulated results. It brought the results reporting to a standstill as counts were reverified by hand before further resignations or concessions were triggered.

At 10:45 p.m. Atlantic time, Elections New Brunswick officially suspended the results reporting count, with 17 ridings still undeclared, while it investigated the delay. It called for over sixty tabulator count devices to be brought to central locations for verification without relying on the reporting program. At no time was there an allegation of fraud by any party or public official.

As a result of the controversy, both the Progressive Conservatives and the People's Alliance Party called for a hand count of all ballots, with the former refusing to concede the election until the following day. Michael Quinn, the province's chief electoral officer determined no total recount was necessary. Recounts were held in 7 of 49 ridings and the results were upheld with variations of no more than 1 vote per candidate per riding.

Results by region

Party Name			Northern	Miramichi	Southeastern	Southern	Capital Region	Upper River Valley	Total
	Liberal	Seats	8	2	9	4	1	3	27
		Popular Vote	58.12%	45.34%	46.52%	34.30%	29.27%	43.00%	42.72%
	Progressive Conservative	Seats	0	1	5	7	6	2	21
		Popular Vote	25.51%	40.30%	31.13%	40.29%	35.79%	43.61%	34.65%
	New Democratic	Seats	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		Popular Vote	11.49%	6.01%	11.76%	16.50%	18.37%	7.67%	12.98%
	Green	Seats	0	0	0	0	1	0	1
		Popular Vote	2.42%	3.10%	9.44%	5.83%	9.65%	4.35%	6.61%
	People's Alliance	Seats	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		Popular Vote	0.00%	2.83%	1.15%	2.53%	6.33%	0.46%	2.14%
	Independent	Seats	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		Popular Vote	2.46%	2.43%	0.00%	0.55%	0.59%	0.90%	0.89%
Total seats			8	3	14	11	8	5	49

Results by place

Party		Seats	Second	Third	Fourth
	Liberal	27	18	4	0
	Progressive Conservative	21	26	2	0
	Green	1	1	4	34
	New Democratic	0	3	35	11
	People's Alliance	0	1	2	1
	Independent	0	0	2	1

Opinion polls

Polling Firm	Last Day of Polling	Link	PC	Liberal	NDP	Green	PA
Forum Research	September 21, 2014	PDF	40	40	12	6
Corporate Research Associates	September 18, 2014	HTML	36	45	11	6	2
Forum Research	September 11, 2014	PDF	32	42	13	6
Corporate Research Associates	August 31, 2014	HTML	28	48	17	4	2
Forum Research	August 25, 2014	HTML	31	46	15	7
Nordic Research Group	August 21, 2014	HTML	26	34	13	5
Corporate Research Associates	May 31, 2014	HTML	28	53	16	3
Corporate Research Associates	February 28, 2014	PDF	31	43	21	4
Corporate Research Associates	November 28, 2013	HTML	25	47	24	4
Corporate Research Associates	September 1, 2013	PDF	23	47	24	4	3
Corporate Research Associates	May 30, 2013	PDF	29	41	27	3	1
Corporate Research Associates	March 8, 2013	PDF Archived 2013-04-03 at the Wayback Machine	32	35	26	5
Corporate Research Associates	December 1, 2012	PDF	38	38	19	4	1
Corporate Research Associates	August 31, 2012	PDF	38	32	24	6
Corporate Research Associates	May 30, 2012	PDF	44	32	19	5
Corporate Research Associates	February 29, 2012	PDF	45	31	22	3
Corporate Research Associates	November 29, 2011	PDF	45	28	23	3	1
Corporate Research Associates	August 31, 2011	PDF	41	34	23		2
Corporate Research Associates	May 31, 2011	PDF	56	20	20	1	3
Corporate Research Associates	February 28, 2011	PDF	58	27	8	6
Corporate Research Associates	November 30, 2010	PDF	61	25	10	4
Election 2010	September 27, 2010	HTML	48.8	34.5	10.4	4.6	1.2

Retiring incumbents

The following sitting members of the legislative assembly (MLAs) had announced that they would not re-offer at this election:

Progressive Conservatives

• John Betts, MLA for Moncton Crescent (1999–2014)
• Jack Carr, MLA for New Maryland-Sunbury West (2008–2014)
• Greg Davis, MLA for Campbellton-Restigouche Centre (2010–2014)
• Dale Graham, MLA for Carleton (1995–2014) and Carleton North (1993–1995)
• Wes McLean, MLA for Victoria-Tobique (2010–2014)
• Wayne Steeves, MLA for Albert (1999–2014)
• Glen Tait, MLA for Saint John East (2010–2014)

Liberals

• Roland Haché, MLA for Nigadoo-Chaleur (1999–2014)

Candidates

New boundaries were in effect as a result of an electoral redistribution replacing the districts used in the 2006 and 2010 elections. Candidates had to file their nomination papers by September 2, 2014 to appear on the ballot.

Legend

• bold denotes cabinet minister or party leader
• italics denotes a potential candidate who has not received his/her party's nomination
• † denotes an incumbent who is not running for re-election
• * denotes an incumbent seeking re-election in a new district

Northern

Electoral district	Candidates											Incumbent
		Progressive Conservatives		Liberal		NDP		Green		Other
Restigouche West		Martine Coulombe* 1,710 20.08%		Gilles LePage 4,940 58.02%		Gilles Cyr 351 4.12%		—		Charles Thériault (Independent) 1,514 17.78%	new district
Campbellton-Dalhousie		Joseph Elias 1,879 24.27%		Donald Arseneault 4,820 62.25%		Jamie O'Rourke 762 9.84%		Heather Wood 282 3.64%				Donald Arseneault
											merged district
												Greg Davis†
Restigouche-Chaleur		Gilberte Boudreau 1,120 14.84%		Daniel Guitard 4,069 53.92%		Ray Godin 2,198 29.12%		Mario Comeau 160 2.12%				Roland Haché†
Bathurst West-Beresford		Anne Bard-Lavigne 1,778 25.54%		Brian Kenny* 4,367 62.74%		Etienne Arseneau 564 8.10%		Catherine Doucet 252 3.62%			new district
Bathurst East-Nepisiguit-Saint-Isidore		Ryan Riordon* 1,894 26.31%		Denis Landry* 4,431 61.56%		Benjamin Kalenda 559 7.77%		Gerry Aubie 314 4.36%			new district
Caraquet		Suzanne Morais-Vienneau 1,814 21.86%		Hédard Albert 4,716 56.82%		Mathieu Chayer 1,579 19.02%		Sophie Chiasson-Gould 191 2.30%				Hédard Albert
Shippagan-Lamèque-Miscou		Paul Robichaud 3,970 45.60%		Wilfred Roussel 4,014 46.10%		Juliette Paulin 497 5.71%		Tony Mallet 226 2.60%				Paul Robichaud
Tracadie-Sheila		Claude Landry 2,195 23.97%		Serge Rousselle 5,916 64.61%		François Rousselle 861 9.40%		Nancy Benoit 121 1.32%		Donald Thomas (Independent) 64 0.70%		Claude Landry

Miramichi

Electoral district	Candidates											Incumbent
		Progressive Conservatives		Liberal		NDP		Green		Other
Miramichi Bay-Neguac		Serge Robichaud 3,307 38.76%		Lisa Harris 4,199 49.22%		Curtis Bartibogue 785 9.20%		Filip Vanicek 240 2.81%				Serge Robichaud
Miramichi		Robert Trevors 2,743 34.51%		Bill Fraser 3,974 50.00%		Roger Vautour 328 4.13%		Patty Deitch 307 3.86%		Michael "Tanker" Malley (Independent) 596 7.50%		Bill Fraser
											merged district
												Robert Trevors
Southwest Miramichi-Bay du Vin		Jake Stewart 3,837 47.62%		Norma Smith 2,951 36.63%		Douglas Mullin 361 4.48%		Kevin Matthews 214 2.66%		Wes Gullison (PANB) 694 8.61%		Jake Stewart

Southeastern

Electoral district	Candidates											Incumbent
		Progressive Conservatives		Liberal		NDP		Green		Other
Kent North		Nancy Blanchard 1,559 16.60%		Bertrand LeBlanc 4,699 50.02%		Allan Marsh 1,294 13.77%		Rébeka Frazer-Chiasson 1,707 18.17%		Raven-Chanelle Arsenault-Augustine (PANB) 135 1.44%		Bertrand LeBlanc
Kent South		Claude Williams 3,216 33.75%		Benoît Bourque 4,637 48.66%		Paul Musgrave 535 5.61%		Tina Beers 953 10.00%		Joël MacIntosh (PANB) 188 1.97%		Brian Gallant
											merged district
												Claude Williams
Shediac Bay-Dieppe		Dolorès Poirier 1,678 19.15%		Brian Gallant* 5,661 64.61%		Agathe Lapointe 803 9.16%		Stephanie Matthews 620 7.08%			new district
Shediac-Beaubassin-Cap-Pelé		Carmel Brun 1,718 18.81%		Victor Boudreau 5,496 60.18%		Bernice Boudreau 1,175 12.87%		Charles Thibodeau 743 8.14%				Victor Boudreau
Memramcook-Tantramar		Mike Olscamp 2,037 26.45%		Bernard LeBlanc* 3,515 45.64%		Hélène Boudreau 972 12.62%		Megan Mitton 1,178 15.29%				Mike Olscamp
Dieppe		Normand Léger 1,360 18.44%		Roger Melanson 4,866 65.97%		Sandy Harquail 736 9.98%		Françoise Aubin 414 5.61%				Roger Melanson
Moncton East		Jane Mitton-MacLean 2,521 33.01%		Monique LeBlanc 3,443 45.09%		Roy MacMullin 1,105 14.47%		Matthew Clark 567 7.43%			new district
Moncton Centre		Marie-Claude Blais* 1,589 25.21%		Chris Collins* 3,339 52.98%		Luc Leblanc 866 13.74%		Jeffrey McCluskey 508 8.06%			new district
Moncton South		Sue Stultz 2,247 34.91%		Cathy Rogers 2,903 45.10%		Elisabeth French 757 11.76%		Rish McGlynn 530 8.23%				Sue Stultz
Moncton Northwest		Ernie Steeves 3,012 42.15%		Brian Hicks 2,773 38.80%		Jason Purdy 783 10.96%		Mike Milligan 436 6.10%		Carl Bainbridge (PANB) 142 1.99%		John Betts†
Moncton Southwest		Sherry Wilson* 2,523 38.80%		Tyson Milner 2,274 34.97%		Charles Doucet 1,129 17.36%		Mathieu LaPlante 392 6.03%		Lucy Goguen (PANB) 184 2.83%		new district
Riverview		Bruce Fitch 3,751 52.73%		Tammy Rampersaud 2,097 29.48%		Danie Pitre 723 10.16%		Linda Hardwick 542 7.62%				Bruce Fitch
Albert		Brian Keirstead 3,163 40.78%		Terry Keating 2,190 28.24%		Kelly-Sue O'Connor 880 11.35%		Ira Wilbur 929 11.98%		Bill Brewer (PANB) 594 7.66%		Wayne Steeves†
Gagetown-Petitcodiac		Ross Wetmore* 3,352 44.47%		Barak Stevens 2,499 33.15%		Anthony Crandall 978 12.97%		Fred Harrison 709 9.41%			new district

Southern

Electoral district	Candidates											Incumbent
		Progressive Conservatives		Liberal		NDP		Green		Other
Sussex-Fundy-St. Martins		Bruce Northrup 3,677 49.86%		Heike MacGregor 1,710 23.19%		Billy Carter 652 8.84%		Stephanie Coburn 570 7.73%		LeRoy Armstrong (PANB) 766 10.39%		Bruce Northrup
Hampton		Gary Crossman 2,679 38.74%		John Cairns 1,618 23.40%		Bev Harrison* 1,796 25.97%		John Sabine 554 8.01%		Joan K. Seeley (PANB) 269 3.89%	new district
Quispamsis		Blaine Higgs 3,884 51.35%		Mary Schryer 2,390 31.60%		Angela-Jo Griffin 938 12.40%		Patrick Kemp 238 3.15%		Brandon Gardner (PANB) 114 1.51%		Blaine Higgs
Rothesay		Ted Flemming 3,039 45.24%		Stephanie Tomilson 1,838 27.36%		John Wilcox 1,559 23.21%		Ann McAllister 282 4.20%				Ted Flemming
Saint John East		Glen Savoie 2,323 36.88%		Gary Keating 2,332 37.02%		Phil Comeau 1,167 18.53%		Sharon Murphy 353 5.60%		Jason Inness (PANB) 124 1.97%		Glen Savoie
											merged district
												Glen Tait†
Portland-Simonds		Trevor Holder 2,782 48.90%		Michael Butler 1,905 33.49%		Tony Sekulich 743 13.06%		Sheila Croteau 259 4.55%				Trevor Holder
Saint John Harbour		Carl Killen 1,615 30.84%		Ed Doherty 1,686 32.19%		Gary Stackhouse 1,120 21.39%		Wayne Dryer 701 13.39%		Arthur Watson (PANB) 115 2.20%		Carl Killen
Saint John Lancaster		Dorothy Shephard 2,619 39.18%		Peter McGuire 2,162 32.35%		Abel LeBlanc 1,535 22.97%		Ashley Durdle 283 4.23%		Mary Ellen Carpenter (Independent) 85 1.27%		Dorothy Shephard
Kings Centre		Bill Oliver 2,431 35.66%		Shannon Merrifield 2,110 30.95%		Daniel Anderson 1,642 24.09%		Mark Connell 311 4.56%		Colby Fraser (Independent) 323 4.74%	new district
Fundy-The Isles-Saint John West		Jim Parrott* 1,828 25.39%		Rick Doucet 4,498 62.47%		Terry James 558 7.75%		Krysta Oland 316 4.39%				Rick Doucet
Charlotte-Campobello		Curtis Malloch 2,982 39.19%		John Ames 3,176 41.73%		June Greenlaw 515 6.77%		Derek Simon 453 5.95%		Joyce Wright (PANB) 484 6.36%		Curtis Malloch

Capital Region

Electoral district	Candidates											Incumbent
		Progressive Conservatives		Liberal		NDP		Green		Other
Oromocto-Lincoln		Jody Carr 2,827 41.97%		Trisha Hoyt 2,354 34.95%		Amanda Diggins 857 12.72%		Jean Louis Deveau 379 5.63%		Jeff Langille (PANB) 318 4.72%		Jody Carr
											merged district
												Craig Leonard
Fredericton-Grand Lake		Pam Lynch 2,403 28.79%		Sheri Shannon 2,330 27.91%		Bronwen Mosher 879 10.53%		Dan Weston 358 4.29%		Kris Austin(PANB) 2,377 28.48%		Pam Lynch
											merged district
												Ross Wetmore
New Maryland-Sunbury		Jeff Carr 3,391 40.95%		Michael Pearson 2,595 31.34%		Aimee Foreman 1,787 21.58%		Kelsey Adams 508 6.13%				Jack Carr†
Fredericton South		Craig Leonard* 1,938 26.17%		Roy Wiggins 1,601 21.62%		Kelly Lamrock 1,465 19.78%		David Coon 2,272 30.68%		Courtney Mills (Independent) 130 1.76%	new district
Fredericton North		Troy Lifford* 2,445 31.73%		Stephen Horsman 2,589 33.60%		Brian Duplessis 1,560 20.25%		Madeleine Berrevoets 791 10.27%		Patricia Wilkins (PANB) 320 4.15%	new district
Fredericton-York		Kirk MacDonald* 2,886 35.42%		Randy McKeen 2,365 29.03%		Sharon Scott-Levesque 1,695 20.80%		Dorothy Diamond 583 7.16%		Rick Wilkins (PANB) 379 4.65% Gerald Bourque (Independent) 240 2.95%	new district
Fredericton West-Hanwell		Brian Macdonald 2,971 35.21%		Bernadine Gibson 2,384 28.25%		Dominic Cardy 2,502 29.65%		Gayla MacIntosh 582 6.90%				Brian Macdonald
											merged district
												Carl Urquhart
Carleton-York		Carl Urquhart* 3,662 46.53%		Ashley Cummings 2,203 27.99%		Jacob Elsinga 816 10.37%		Terry Wishart 602 7.65%		David Graham (PANB) 587 7.46%	new district

Upper River Valley

Electoral district	Candidates											Incumbent
		Progressive Conservatives		Liberal		NDP		Green		Other
Carleton		David Alward* 4,061 56.77%		Thomas Reid 1,588 22.20%		Jeremiah Clark 580 8.11%		Andrew Clark 750 10.49%		Steven Love (PANB) 174 2.43%	new district
Carleton-Victoria		Colin Lockhart 3,049 39.76%		Andrew Harvey 3,131 40.83%		Joe Gee 683 8.91%		Garth Farquhar 464 6.05%		Carter Edgar (Independent) 216 2.82% Terry Ritchie (Independent) 125 1.63%		Dale Graham†
											merged district
												Wes McLean†
Victoria-la-Vallée		Danny Soucy 3,056 38.20%		Chuck Chiasson 3,969 49.62%		Joe Berube 546 6.83%		Daniel Zolondek 428 5.35%				Danny Soucy
Edmundston-Madawaska Centre		Madeleine Dubé 3,666 48.16%		Michel LeBlond 3,423 44.97%		Alain Martel 523 6.87%						Madeleine Dubé
Madawaska-les-Lacs-Edmundston		Yvon Bonenfant 2,616 35.92%		Francine Landry 4,106 56.39%		Widler Jules 560 7.69%						Yvon Bonenfant

Notes

• A¹ Gallant won the seat in a by-election on April 15, 2013. The seat was previously held by Liberal former premier Shawn Graham.
• B¹ Flemming won the seat in a by-election on June 25, 2012. The seat was previously held by Progressive Conservative Margaret-Ann Blaney.