Polish parliamentary election, 2005

From Infogalactic: the planetary knowledge core
Jump to: navigation, search
Polish parliamentary election, 2005

← 2001 25 September 2005 2007 →

All 460 seats in the Sejm
231 seats were needed for a majority in the Sejm
All 100 seats in the Senate
Turnout 40.57%
  First party Second party Third party
  Kaczynski Jaroslaw 1 067.JPG Donald Tusk 3.jpg ALepper na stacji benzynowej.jpg
Leader Jarosław Kaczyński Donald Tusk Andrzej Lepper
Party PiS PO SRP
Leader since 18 January 2003 1 June 2003 10 January 1992
Leader's seat 19 – Warsaw I 25 – Gdansk 40 – Koszalin
Last election 44 seats, 9.5% 65 seats, 12.7% 53 seats, 10.2%
Seats won 155 133 56
Seat change Increase 111 Increase 68 Increase 3
Popular vote 3,185,714 2,849,269 1,347,355
Percentage 27.0% 24.1% 11.4%
Swing Increase 17.5% Increase 11.4% Increase 1.2%

  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
  100px Waldemar Pawlak candidate 2010 D crop.jpg
Leader Wojciech Olejniczak Roman Giertych Waldemar Pawlak
Party SLD LPR PSL
Leader since 29 May 2005 21 April 2001 29 January 2005
Leader's seat 11 – Sieradz 19 – Warsaw I 16 – Płock
Last election 216 seats, 41% 38 seats, 7.9% 42 seats, 9%
Seats won 55 34 25
Seat change Decrease 161 Decrease 4 Decrease 17
Popular vote 1,335,257 940,762 821,656
Percentage 11.3% 8.0% 7.0%
Swing Decrease 29.7% Increase 0.1% Decrease 2%

  Seventh party
 
Leader Henryk Kroll
Party MN
Leader since 27 October 1991
Leader's seat 21 – Opole
Last election 2 seats, 0.4%
Seats won 2
Seat change Steady
Popular vote 34,469
Percentage 0.3%
Swing Decrease 0.1%

350px
Powiats won by

– Civic Platform – Law and Justice
– Polish People's Party – Democratic Left Alliance
– Self-Defense

– German Minority

Prime Minister before election

Marek Belka
demokraci.pl

New Primer Minister

Kazimierz Marcinkiewicz
PiS

Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.

Parliamentary elections were held in Poland on 25 September 2005.[1] Thirty million voters were eligible to vote for all 460 members of the lower house, the Sejm and all 100 members of the upper house, the Senate.

The election resulted in a sweeping victory for two parties of the centre-right, the conservative Law and Justice (PiS) and the liberal-conservative Civic Platform (PO). The incumbent center-left government of the Democratic Left Alliance (SLD) was soundly defeated in a landslide. The two victorious parties won 288 out of the 460 seats, while the SLD was reduced to 55 seats. The PiS won 155 seats, while PO obtained 133. PiS leader, Jarosław Kaczyński, declined the opportunity to become Prime Minister in order not to prejudice his twin brother Lech Kaczyński's chances for the presidential election held later in October. In his place, Law and Justice instead nominated Kazimierz Marcinkiewicz for the post. The outgoing Prime Minister, Marek Belka, lost his seat.

In the Senate, PiS won 49 seats and PO 34 of the 100 seats, leaving eight other parties with the remaining 17 seats. The SLD won no seats in the Senate.

Background

The 2005 Sejm was elected by proportional representation from multi-member constituencies, with seats divided among parties which gain more than five percent of the votes using the d'Hondt method. On the other hand, the Senate is elected under first-past-the-post bloc voting. This tends to cause the party or coalition which wins the elections to have a larger majority in the Senate than in the Sejm.

In the 2001 elections the SLD and UP won 216 of the 460 seats, and were able to form a government with the support of the Polish People's Party (PSL). The former ruling party, Solidarity Electoral Action (AWS) based on the Solidarity trade union, lost all its seats. In its place several new right-wing parties emerged, such as the PO and the PiS.

After 2003 a variety of factors combined to bring about a collapse of support for the government. Discontent with high unemployment, government spending cuts (especially on health, education and welfare), affairs related to privatizations was compounded by a series of corruption scandals, leading to the resignation of the Prime Minister Leszek Miller in May 2004, who was succeeded by Marek Belka. All opinion polls suggested that the governing parties would be heavily defeated at these elections and that the right-wing parties would win a large majority. With the expected downfall of the post-communists, the right-wing parties competed mainly against each other.

Contestants

The parties running in this election were mainly the same as in 2001, with the addition of Social Democracy of Poland (a splinter group from the Democratic Left Alliance), and the Democratic Party formed from the Freedom Union (UW) and some SLD dissidents. Both these new parties failed to win seats.

The BBC commented on election day: "The two centre-right parties are both rooted in the anti-communist Solidarity movement but differ on issues such as the budget and taxation. Law and Justice, whose agenda includes tax breaks and state aid for the poor, has pledged to uphold traditional family and Christian values. It is suspicious of economic liberalism. The Citizens Platform strongly promotes free market forces and wants to introduce a flat 15% rate for income tax, corporation tax and VAT. It also promises to move faster on deregulation and privatisation, in order to adopt the euro as soon as possible."

Opinion polls

In the run up to the election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention. The poll results are listed in the table below.

Date Polling firm SLD UP SDPL PO PiS PSL SRP LPR PD Others Lead
25 September 2005 Election results 11,3% 3,9% 24,1% 27% 7% 11,4% 8% 2,5% 4,9% 2,9% over PO
14-18 September CBOS 6% 2% 33% 27% 5% 12% 9% 2% 5% 6% over PiS
8-12 September TNS OBOP 9% 5% 36% 23% 4% 7% 8% 2% 6% 13% over PiS
25-29 August TNS OBOP 9% 3% 29% 20% 5% 10% 11% 1% 12% 9% over PiS
4-9 August Ipsos 12% 4% 21% 27% 5% 15% 10% 1% 5% 6% over PO
5-8 August CBOS 8% 3% 23% 22% 7% 16% 11% 3% 7% 1% over PiS
4-8 August TNS OBOP 8% 6% 27% 23% 4% 8% 8% 3% 14% 4% over PiS
1-4 July TNS OBOP 8% 4% 21% 23% 7% 18% 8% 3% 8% 2% over PO
1-4 July CBOS 8% 5% 21% 26% 4% 14% 10% 2% 10% 5% over PO
3-6 June CBOS 6% 7% 20% 23% 7% 13% 14% 4% 7% 3% over PO
2-6 June TNS OBOP 6% 7% 26% 18% 3% 13% 12% 3% 13% 8% over PiS
6-9 May CBOS 7% 3% 6% 25% 20% 5% 14% 8% 3% 9% 5% over PiS
5-9 May TNS OBOP 3% 1% 9% 24% 20% 8% 12% 9% 4% 11% 4% over PiS
15-18 April PGB 6% 1% 8% 20% 18% 7% 13% 14% 5% 8% 2% over PiS
12-17 April TNS OBOP 3% 2% 4% 26% 20% 6% 10% 14% 3% 12% 6% over PiS
1-2/9-10 April CBOS 4% 3% 5% 20% 24% 4% 14% 10% 4% 13% 4% over PO
4-8 March TNS OBOP 9% 1% 5% 23% 12% 9% 16% 10% 6% 9% 7% over SRP
4-7 March CBOS 6% 3% 3% 22% 16% 8% 14% 11% 5% 12% 6% over PiS
4-8 February TNS OBOP 7% 1% 7% 23% 15% 7% 14% 11% 4% 6% 8% over PiS
4-7 February CBOS 6% 4% 4% 25% 15% 7% 12% 13% 5% 9% 10% over PiS
7-10 January CBOS 6% 3% 6% 26% 18% 7% 11% 12% 3% 8% 8% over PiS
6-10 January TNS OBOP 9% 3% 7% 20% 16% 6% 11% 14% 3% 11% 4% over PiS
2005
3-6 December CBOS 5% 2% 4% 27% 18% 6% 12% 11% 3% 12% 9% over PiS
2-5 December TNS OBOP 6% 2% 7% 28% 14% 4% 13% 13% 3% 10% 14% over PiS
5-8 November CBOS 8% 2% 5% 27% 17% 8% 10% 12% 3% 8% 10% over PiS
4-7 November TNS OBOP 7% 2% 6% 29% 12% 5% 10% 13% 6% 9% 16% over LPR
1-4 October CBOS 6% 3% 4% 27% 14% 6% 12% 14% 6% 7% 13% over PiS/LPR
30 September - 3 October TNS OBOP 5% 2% 7% 23% 13% 7% 14% 15% 6% 8% 8% over LPR
3-6 September CBOS 9% 4% 7% 25% 15% 5% 10% 13% 3% 9% 10% over PiS
2-5 September TNS OBOP 9% 2% 6% 19% 12% 6% 14% 15% 3% 14% 4% over LPR
6-9 August CBOS 7% 3% 7% 25% 16% 6% 10% 12% 4% 10% 9% over PiS
5-8 August TNS OBOP 4% 1% 6% 26% 12% 4% 10% 12% 3% 22% 14% over PiS/LPR
9-12 July CBOS 5% 2% 4% 29% 14% 6% 13% 16% 5% 6% 13% over LPR
1-4 July TNS OBOP 5% 2% 3% 25% 13% 7% 13% 15% 3% 14% 10% over LPR
18-21 June CBOS 7% 4% 4% 28% 10% 7% 13% 16% 3% 9% 12% over LPR
17-20 June TNS OBOP 7% 1% 4% 28% 13% 4% 13% 13% 5% 12% 15% over PiS/SRP/LPR
13 June European Parliament election 9,3% 5,3% 24,1% 12,7% 6,3% 10,8% 15,9% 7,3% 8,2% 8,2% over LPR
3-6 June TNS OBOP 3% 6% 6% 26% 10% 4% 20% 12% 3% 10% 6% over SRP
7-10 May CBOS 5% 3% 5% 26% 13% 8% 20% 7% 3% 9% 6% over SRP
6-9 May TNS OBOP 5% 3% 5% 26% 13% 6% 17% 7% 3% 13% 9% over SRP
2-5 April CBOS 6% 4% 7% 29% 9% 5% 24% 6% 2% 8% 5% over SRP
1-4 April TNS OBOP 4% 2% 10% 33% 7% 5% 24% 5% 2% 8% 9% over SRP
March 2004 CBOS 8% 2% Did not exist 26% 9% 4% 29% 10% 3% 8% 3% over PO
5-8 March CBOS 10% 3% 27% 15% 4% 24% 7% 2% 7% 3% over SRP
4-7 March TNS OBOP 9% 3% 29% 12% 6% 23% 8% 2% 8% 6% over SRP
27 February-3 March CBOS 11% 3% 29% 10% 7% 23% 9% 1% 7% 6% over SRP
February 2004 CBOS 12% 3% 29% 9% 7% 19% 11% 2% 6% 10% over SRP
6-9 February CBOS 18% 3% 31% 10% 5% 18% 8% 2% 5% 13% over SLD/SRP
5-8 February TNS OBOP 12% 2% 24% 10% 5% 23% 12% 4% 8% 1% over SRP
10-12 January TNS OBOP 19% 2% 26% 10% 7% 16% 10% 3% 7% 7% over SLD
9-12 January CBOS 17% 4% 29% 13% 6% 11% 10% 3% 8% 14% over SLD
2004
6-8 December TNS OBOP 16% 2% 20% 13% 8% 16% 9% 3% 13% 4% over SLD/SRP
5-8 December CBOS 17% 4% 26% 12% 6% 13% 8% 3% 10% 9% over SLD
29 November-2 December CBOS 18% 2% 26% 12% 7% 12% 9% 2% 6% 8% over SLD
8-10 November TNS OBOP 20% 3% 21% 11% 9% 13% 11% 3% 9% 1% over SLD
7-10 November CBOS 20% 4% 22% 14% 6% 14% 6% 4% 8,1% 2% over SLD
25-27 October TNS OBOP 18% 6% 20% 12% 7% 13% 11% 3% 10% 2% over SLD
11-13 October TNS OBOP 20% 4% 15% 15% 8% 12% 10% 5% 11% 5% over PO/PiS
4-6 October TNS OBOP 26% 3% 16% 13% 8% 7% 11% 5% 11% 10% over PO
3-6 October CBOS 19% 5% 17% 18% 10% 10% 10% 3% 9% 1% over PiS
6-8 September TNS OBOP 24% 4% 15% 13% 12% 10% 9% 3% 10% 9% over PO
5-8 September CBOS 21% 5% 21% 18% 7% 9% 6% 4% 9% Tie
23-25 August TNS OBOP 25% 4% 16% 11% 9% 10% 12% 4% 9% 9% over PO
9-11 August TNS OBOP 23% 3% 15% 14% 9% 9% 13% 6% 8% 8% over PO
1-4 August CBOS 21% 5% 14% 15% 10% 12% 6% 5% 12% 6% over PiS
5-7 July TNS OBOP 21% 4% 12% 14% 11% 18% 8% 3% 9% 3% over SRP
4-7 July CBOS 25% 6% 12% 12% 9% 10% 9% 4% 12% 13% over PO/PiS
14-16 June TNS OBOP 27% 5% 15% 12% 8% 14% 8% 3% 8% 12% over PO
7-9 June TNS OBOP 22% 5% 15% 18% 6% 13% 9% 3% 9% 4% over PiS
29 May-1 June CBOS 21% 5% 13% 16% 10% 14% 8% 4% 9% 5% over PiS
10-12 May TNS OBOP 25% 2% 14% 15% 9% 14% 8% 4% 9% 10% over PiS
9-12 May CBOS 21% 4% 12% 18% 7% 13% 10% 6% 9% 3% over PiS
5-7 April TNS OBOP 22% 3% 13% 16% 10% 18% 8% 4% 6% 4% over SRP
4-7 April CBOS 24% 3% 14% 10% 9% 17% 9% 4% 9% 7% over SRP
8-10 March TNS OBOP 29% 4% 9% 15% 8% 14% 10% 4% 7% 14% over PiS
1-4 March CBOS 26% 3% 13% 16% 8% 14% 6% 5% 9% 10% over PiS
8-9 February TNS OBOP 28% 4% 9% 15% 8% 13% 9% 5% 9% 13% over PiS
1-4 February CBOS 28% 3% 10% 12% 8% 16% 12% 3% 7% 12% over SRP
10-12 January TNS OBOP 38% 4% 9% 9% 12% 10% 7% 3% 8% 26% over PSL
3-6 January CBOS 30% 5% 11% 13% 9% 11% 8% 5% 8% 17% over PiS
2003
7-9 December TNS OBOP 25% 3% 10% 15% 10% 14% 13% 3% 7% 10% over PiS
29 November-2 December CBOS 33% 2% 10% 12% 11% 12% 10% 3% 7% 21% over PiS/SRP
23-25 November TNS OBOP 27% 3% 8% 14% 10% 15% 12% 2% 9% 12% over SRP
12-14 November TNS OBOP 31% 2% 8% 13% 16% 12% 7% 2% 9% 21% over SRP
8-11 November CBOS 30% 3% 10% 13% 9% 13% 11% 4% 8% 17% over PiS/SRP
27 October 2002 Local elections 24,7% 16% 10,8% 16% 14,4% 2,3% 15,9% 8,7% over PO-PiS coalition
12-14 October TNS OBOP 35% 10% 10% 11% 14% 10% 3% 7% 21% over SRP
11-14 October CBOS 36% 3% 12% 12% 9% 11% 8% 3% 6% 24% over PO/PiS
5-7 October TNS OBOP 32% 14% 13% 10% 14% 9% 4% 4% 18% over PO/SRP
21-23 September TNS OBOP 37% 11% 11% 9% 15% 8% 4% 5% 22% over SRP
7-9 September TNS OBOP 35% 10% 14% 8% 10% 13% 4% 6% 21% over PiS
6-9 September CBOS 34% 5% 10% 12% 8% 14% 7% 2% 8% 20% over SRP
24-26 August TNS OBOP 39% 14% 9% 8% 11% 9% 4% 6% 25% over PO
3-5 August TNS OBOP 31% 12% 15% 9% 15% 11% 3% 4% 16% over PiS/SRP
2-5 August CBOS 30% 4% 10% 15% 10% 12% 8% 5% 6% 15% over PiS
6-8 July TNS OBOP 29% 13% 11% 10% 14% 13% 5% 5% 15% over SRP
5-8 July CBOS 30% 3% 12% 12% 7% 17% 8% 4% 6% 13% over SRP
8-10 June TNS OBOP 32% 12% 12% 9% 14% 9% 4% 8% 18% over SRP
7-10 June CBOS 31% 4% 10% 14% 8% 14% 8% 5% 6% 17% over PiS/SRP
25-27 May TNS OBOP 34% 12% 11% 8% 14% 7% 5% 9% 20% over SRP
11-13 May TNS OBOP 36% 11% 12% 10% 12% 7% 6% 6% 24% over PiS/SRP
10-13 May CBOS 34% 3% 11% 10% 9% 13% 7% 5% 8% 21% over SRP
20-22 April TNS OBOP 33% 12% 11% 10% 15% 9% 2% 8% 18% over SRP
6-8 April TNS OBOP 39% 11% 11% 9% 11% 7% 5% 7% 28% over PO/PiS/SRP
5-8 April CBOS 33% 4% 12% 11% 12% 10% 6% 3% 9% 21% over PO/PSL
9-11 March TNS OBOP 37% 14% 12% 9% 10% 9% 2% 7% 23% over PO
1-4 March CBOS 35% 2% 10% 11% 9% 11% 10% 3% 11% 24% over PiS/SRP
23-25 February TNS OBOP 39% 11% 14% 9% 11% 9% 4% 3% 25% over PiS
9-11 February TNS OBOP 40% 13% 10% 10% 8% 8% 3% 8% 27% over PO
1-4 February CBOS 47% 1% 11% 9% 8% 10% 7% 2% 6% 36% over PO
12-14 January TNS OBOP 42% 12% 10% 8% 11% 7% 3% 7% 30% over PO
10-14 January CBOS[lower-alpha 1] 40% 3% 12% 11% 8% 8% 6% 3% 8% 28% over PO
2002
15-17 December TNS OBOP 40% 13% 10% 7% 11% 7% 4% 8% 27% over PO
8-10 December TNS OBOP 40% 12% 6% 11% 12% 8% 7% 4% 28% over PO/SRP
7-10 December CBOS[lower-alpha 1] 40% 3% 12% 13% 8% 9% 7% 3% 6% 27% over PiS
24-26 November TNS OBOP 40% 13% 6% 9% 16% 7% 1% 8% 24% over SRP
10-12 November TNS OBOP 50% 10% 7% 8% 12% 7% 2% 4% 38% over SRP
9-12 November CBOS[lower-alpha 1] 48% 12% 7% 9% 10% 7% 3% 6% 36% over PO
20-22 October TNS OBOP 46% 14% 7% 9% 10% 7% 3% 3% 32% over PO
12-15 October CBOS[lower-alpha 1] 39% 14% 9% 8% 12% 8% 4% 6% 25% over PO
23 September 2001 Election results 41% 12,7% 9,5% 9% 10,2% 7,9% 3,1% 6,7% 28,3% over PO

Notes

  1. 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 Until February 2001, CBOS polls did not disregard those polled who said they were still undecided. To ensure consistency, the result of the polls prior to February 2001 has been adjusted to exclude the undecided.

Results

Party Sejm Senate
Votes % Seats +/– Votes % Seats +/–
Law and Justice 3,185,714 27.0 155 +111 5,014,149 42.4 49
Civic Platform 2,849,259 24.1 133 +68 4,080,497 34.5 34
Self-Defense of the Republic of Poland 1,347,355 11.4 56 +3 2,016,858 17.1 3 +1
Democratic Left Alliance 1,335,257 11.3 55 –161 3,114,118 26.4 0 –75
League of Polish Families 940,762 8.0 34 –4 2,947,719 25.0 7 +5
Polish People's Party 821,656 7.0 25 –17 1,384,313 11.7 2 –2
Social Democracy of Poland 459,380 3.9 0 New 573,556 4.9 0 New
Democratic Party 289,276 2.5 0 New
Janusz Korwin-Mikke Platform 185,885 1.6 0 New
Patriotic Movement 124,038 1.1 0 New
Polish Labour Party 91,266 0.8 0 New
German Minority 34,469 0.3 2 0
Polish National Party 34,127 0.3 0 New
Ancestral Home 32,863 0.3 0 New
Centre 21,893 0.2 0 New
All-Poland Civic Coalition 16,251 0.1 0 New
Party Initiative of the Republic of Poland 11,914 0.1 0 New
Polish Confederation - Dignity and Work 8,353 0.1 0 New
National Revival of Poland 7,376 0.1 0 New
German Minority of Silesia 5,581 0.1 0 0
Labour Party 1,019 0.0 0 New
Social Rescuers 982 0.0 0 New
Local lists and independents 4,321,323 36.6 5 +3
Invalid/blank votes 440,227 426,054
Total 12,244,903 100 460 0 12,262,311 100 100 0
Registered voters/turnout 30,229,031 40.6 30,229,031 40.6
Source: Nohlen & Stöver

Had the two leading parties been able to form a coalition, as expected, it would have had 62.6 percent of seats in the Assembly, just short of the two-thirds supermajority required to carry out more ambitious projects, such as constitutional reform, but this was not to be (see below). The populist and isolationist Self-Defense of the Polish Republic (Samoobrona) slightly improved its representation and became the third largest party ahead of the SLD, which despite losing most of its seats performed slightly better than suggested in opinion polls. It has, however, lost all its Senate seats. The League of Polish Families and the Polish People's Party retained their representation. The German minority in Poland is exempt from the requirement of achieving at least 5% of the total vote and retained their 2 seats.

Distribution of the vote

Although PiS and PO were the clear winners, their vote was very unevenly distributed, creating a basis for future conflicts. Their support is overwhelmingly concentrated in the cities, particularly Warsaw and the southern industrial areas around Kraków and Katowice, but also including Gdańsk, Gdynia, Poznań, Wrocław and Szczecin. The only urban centre not to endorse the right was Łódź. The two main parties failed to win a majority in any rural district except Rzeszów in the south. In seven rural districts they polled less the 40 percent of the vote, while in one (Chełm) they polled less than 35 percent. While no other single party polled a majority in any district, the vote shows the continuing sharp divide in Polish politics between urban voters, who are generally more socially liberal and in favour of free-market economics, and rural voters, who are more socially conservative and economically left-wing.

Aftermath

Negotiations between PiS and PO about forming the new government collapsed in late October, precipitated by disagreement regarding who would be speaker of the Sejm. On 1 November the PiS announced a minority government headed by Kazimierz Marcinkiewicz as the new Prime Minister. The negotiations were affected by the 9 October presidential election, where the PiS victor Lech Kaczyński is the twin brother of the PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński; Jarosław Kaczyński had declared that he would not become the Prime Minister if his brother wins the election. The constitutional requirement to form a government within a set time period also heated up the coalition negotiations.

A major stumbling block against forming a coalition was the PO's insistence on receiving the Interior portfolio if it were to enter a coalition government with the PiS, to prevent one party from controlling all three of the "power" ministries (Security, Justice and Interior) that control the police and security services. The PO also opposed a "tactical alliance" between the PiS and Samoobrona, who share eurosceptic and populists sentiments, although differing on economic policy. The election campaign, in which both centre-right parties competed mainly against each other rather than parties on the left, accentuated differences and created an antagonistic relationship between the two parties.

The minority government depended on the support of the radical Samoobrona and the deeply conservative League of Polish Families (LPR) to govern, a situation that made many of those hoping for a PiS/PO coalition uneasy. On 5 May 2006 PiS formed a coalition government with Samoobrona and LPR.

In July 2006, Marcinkiewicz tendered his resignation, following reports of a rift with PiS party leader Kaczyński. Kaczyński formed a new government and was sworn-in on July 14, finally becoming prime minister.

Further reading

  • Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.

References

  1. Nohlen, D & Stöver, P (2010) Elections in Europe: A data handbook, p1491 ISBN 978-3-8329-5609-7

External links