Political party strength in U.S. states

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Political party strength in U.S. states refers to the level of representation of the various political parties of the U.S. in each statewide elective office providing legislators to the state and to the U.S. Congress and electing the executives at the state (U.S. state governor) and national (U.S. President) level.

History

Throughout most of the 20th century, although the Republican and Democratic parties alternated in power at a national level, some states were so overwhelmingly dominated by one party that nomination was usually tantamount to election. This was especially true in the Solid South, where the Democratic Party was dominant for the better part of a century, from the end of Reconstruction in the late 1870s, through the period of Jim Crow Laws into the 1960s. Conversely, the New England states of Vermont, Maine, and New Hampshire were dominated by the Republican Party, as were some Midwestern states like Iowa and North Dakota.

However, in the 1970s and 1980s, the increasingly conservative Republican Party gradually overtook the Democrats in the southeast. The Democrats' support in the formerly Solid South had been eroded during the vast cultural, political and economic upheaval that surrounded the 1960s. By the 1990s the Republican Party had completed the transition into the southeast's dominant political party, despite typically having fewer members due to the prevalence of Republican voting generational Democrats. In New England, the opposite trend took place; the former Republican strongholds of Maine and Vermont became solidly Democratic, as did formerly Republican areas of New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut.

Currently, the majority of the overall number of seats held in the state legislatures has been switching between the two parties every few years. As of the U.S. gubernatorial elections of 2010, the Republican party holds an outright majority of approximately 440 with 3,890 seats (53% of total) compared to the Democratic party's number of 3,450 (47% of total) seats elected on a partisan ballot.[1] Of the 7,382 seats in all of the state legislatures combined, independents and third parties account for only 16 members, not counting the 49 members of the Nebraska Legislature, which is the only legislature in the nation to hold non-partisan elections to determine its members. Due to the results of the 2010 elections, Republicans took control of an additional 19 state legislative chambers, giving them majority control of both chambers in 25 states versus the Democrats' majority control of both chambers in only 16 states, with 8 states having split or inconclusive control of both chambers (not including Nebraska); previous to the 2010 elections, it was Democrats who controlled both chambers in 27 states versus the Republican party having total control in only 14 states, with eight states divided and Nebraska being nonpartisan.[2]

Current party strength

Gallup

As of October 2014, Gallup polling found that 43% of Americans identified as Democrats and 39% as Republicans, when party "leaners" were included; those figures changed to 41% Democratic and 42% Republican after the November 2014 elections.[3] However, an earlier 2013 Gallup survey found that 42% of Americans identified as political independents, a record high.[4]

The latter result is more in line with Gallup polling in 2010 that found that 31% of Americans identified as Democrats (tying a 22-year low), 29% as Republicans, and 38% as independents.[5] Nevertheless, more American independents leaned to the Republican Party when compared to the Democratic Party. Combining leaners with each party's core identifiers, the parties ended up tied at 45 percent in 2011.[6]

In 2014, Gallup found seventeen states safely Democratic or leaning Democratic, and fifteen states safely Republican or leaning Republican, with eighteen states categorized as "competitive between the two parties,[7] a net shift of one state to the Republican side since 2013.[8]

Partisan lean of U.S. states according to Gallup polling[7]
  Number of U.S. States
Year Solid Dem Lean Dem Competitive Lean GOP Solid GOP Net Dem
2008 29 6 10 1 4 +30
2009 23 10 12 1 4 +28
2010 13 9 18 5 5 +12
2011 11 7 15 7 10 +1
2012 13 6 19 3 9 +7
2013 12 5 19 2 12 +3
2014 11 6 18 5 10 +2

Previously, Gallup observed that the "greatest movement away from the Democratic Party came between 2009 and 2010, when the number of states with a Democratic advantage fell from 34 to 23". At the time, Gallup concluded that "President Obama faces a much less favorable environment as he seeks a second term in office than he did when he was elected president."[9] There have been less significant partisan shifts among the U.S. states since 2011.

Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI)

Another metric to measure how much a state leans towards one party or the other is the Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI). Cook PVIs are calculated by comparing a state's average Democratic Party or Republican Party share of the two-party presidential vote in the past two presidential elections to the nation's average share of the same. PVIs for the states over the period 1994–2014 can be used to show the trends of U.S. states towards, or away from, one party or the other.[10]

Elections and voter registrations

The following table shows all the U.S. states and to what party (Democratic or Republican) their state governors belong. Also indicated is the majority party of the state legislatures' upper and lower houses as well as U.S. Senate representation. Nebraska's legislature is unicameral, i.e., it has only one legislative house and is officially non-partisan, though party affiliation still has an unofficial influence on the legislative process.

The simplest measure of the party strength in a state's voting population is the breakdown-by-party totals from its voter registration figures (figures that can easily be obtained from the websites of the Secretaries of State or the Boards of Elections of the various states). As of 2014, 28 states and the District of Columbia allow registered voters to indicate a party preference when registering to vote; the following 22 states (mostly in the South and the Midwest) do not provide for party preferences in voter registration: Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Ohio, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington and Wisconsin. The partisan breakdown "demographics" provided in the following table are obtained from that state's party registration figures (from late 2014 whenever possible) where indicated.[11] Only Wyoming has a majority of registered voters identifying themselves as Republicans; two states have a majority of registered voters identifying themselves as Democrats: Maryland and Kentucky (since 2010, Louisiana, Pennsylvania and West Virginia have all seen their Democratic-majority registrations slip to just Democratic-pluralities).

For those states that do no allow for registration by party, Gallup's annual polling of voter party identification by state is the next best metric of party strength in the U.S. states. The partisan figures in the table below for the 22 states that don't register voters by party come from Gallup's 2014 polling of voter party identification by state.

Table of U.S. state party statistics

State 2012 Presidential
Election		 Governor State Senate State House Senior
U.S. Senator		 Junior
U.S. Senator		 U.S. House of Representatives Partisan Split (as of 2014)
Alabama Republican Republican Republican 26-8-1(a) Republican 72-33 Republican Republican Republican 6-1 Republican
49-35(e)
Alaska Republican Independent Republican 14-6 Republican 23-16-1(a) Republican Republican Republican 1-0 Republican
26.7-13.8(d)[12]
Arizona Republican Republican Republican 17-13 Republican 38-22 Republican Republican Republican 5-4 Republican
34.4-28.9(d)[13]
Arkansas Republican Republican Republican 24-11 Republican 64-36 Republican Republican Republican 4-0 Republican
44-37(e)
California Democratic Democratic Democratic 25-14-1(b) Democratic 52-28 Democratic Democratic Democratic 39-14 Democratic
43.3-28.1(d)[14]
Colorado Democratic Democratic Republican 18-17 Democratic 34-31 Democratic Republican Republican 4-3 Republican
32.9-30.9(d)[15]
Connecticut Democratic Democratic Democratic 21-15 Democratic 87-64 Democratic Democratic Democratic 5-0 Democratic
36.4-20.8(d)[16]
Delaware Democratic Democratic Democratic 12-9 Democratic 25-16 Democratic Democratic Democratic 1-0 Democratic
47.5-28.0(d)[17]
Florida Democratic Republican Republican 26-14 Republican 82-37-1(b) Democratic Republican Republican 17-10 Democratic
38.8-35.0(d)[18]
Georgia Republican Republican Republican 38-18 Republican 119-60-1(a) Republican Republican Republican 10-4 Republican
43-39(e)
Hawaii Democratic Democratic Democratic 24-1 Democratic 43-8 Democratic Democratic Democratic 2-0 Democratic
49-35(e)
Idaho Republican Republican Republican 28-7 Republican 56-14 Republican Republican Republican 2-0 Republican
52-27(e)
Illinois Democratic Republican Democratic 39-20 Democratic 71-47 Democratic Republican Democratic 10-8 Democratic
47-35(e)
Indiana Republican Republican Republican 40-10 Republican 71-29 Republican Democratic Republican 7-2 Republican
44-37(e)
Iowa Democratic Republican Democratic 26-24 Republican 57-43 Republican Republican Republican 3-1 Republican
32.0-31.1(d)[19]
Kansas Republican Republican Republican 32-8 Republican 97-28 Republican Republican Republican 4-0 Republican
44.1-24.3(d)[20]
Kentucky Republican Republican Republican 27-11 Democratic 54-46 Republican Republican Republican 5-1 Democratic
53.4-38.8(d)[21]
Louisiana Republican Democratic Republican 25-14 Republican 61-42-2(a) Republican Republican Republican 5-1 Democratic
46.8-27.7(d)[22]
Maine Democratic Republican Republican 20-15 Democratic 79-68-4(a) Republican Independent(a) Tied 1-1 Democratic
31.9-27.1(d)[23]
Maryland Democratic Republican Democratic 33-14 Democratic 90-51 Democratic Democratic Democratic 7-1 Democratic
54.9-25.7(d)[24]
Massachusetts Democratic Republican Democratic 34-6 Democratic 126-34 Democratic Democratic Democratic 9-0 Democratic
35.3-10.9(d)[25]
Michigan Democratic Republican Republican 27-11 Republican 63-47 Democratic Democratic Republican 9-5 Democratic
44-37(e)
Minnesota Democratic Democratic Democratic 39-28 Republican 72-62 Democratic Democratic Democratic 5-3 Democratic
44-39(e)
Mississippi Republican Republican Republican 30-22 Republican 66-56 Republican Republican Republican 3-1 Republican
46-38(e)
Missouri Republican Democratic Republican 25-9 Republican 118-44-1(a) Democratic Republican Republican 6-2 Republican
44-39(e)
Montana Republican Democratic Republican 29-21 Republican 59-41 Democratic Republican Republican 1-0 Republican
51-33(e)
Nebraska Republican Republican Unicameral nonpartisan legislature(c) Republican Republican Republican 2-1 Republican
48.3-30.9(d)[26]
Nevada Democratic Republican Republican 11-10 Republican 27-15 Democratic Republican Republican 3-1 Democratic
39.7-34.6(d)[27]
New Hampshire Democratic Democratic Republican 14-10 Republican 239-160-1(a) Democratic Republican Tied 1-1 Republican
30.1-27.2[28]
New Jersey Democratic Republican Democratic 24-16 Democratic 48-32 Democratic Democratic Tied 6-6 Democratic
32.7-19.7(d)[29]
New Mexico Democratic Republican Democratic 24-18 Republican 37-33 Democratic Democratic Democratic 2-1 Democratic
46.6-31.2(d)[30]
New York Democratic Democratic Coalition
38(f)-23-2(g)		 Democratic 106-44 Democratic Democratic Democratic 18-9 Democratic
49.4-23.9(d)[31]
North Carolina Republican Republican Republican 34-16 Republican 74-46 Republican Republican Republican 10-3 Democratic
41.7-30.4(d)[32]
North Dakota Republican Republican Republican 32-15 Republican 71-23 Republican Democratic Republican 1-0 Republican
47-36(e)
Ohio Democratic Republican Republican 23-10 Republican 65-34 Democratic Republican Republican 12-4 Republican
42-41(e)
Oklahoma Republican Republican Republican 40-8 Republican 72-29 Republican Republican Republican 5-0 Democratic
43.7-43.6(d)[33]
Oregon Democratic Democratic Democratic 18-12 Democratic 35-25 Democratic Democratic Democratic 4-1 Democratic
37.8-29.9(d)[34]
Pennsylvania Democratic Democratic Republican 30-20 Republican 119-84 Democratic Republican Republican 13-5 Democratic
49.5-36.7(d)[35]
Rhode Island Democratic Democratic Democratic 32-5-1(a) Democratic 63-11-1(a) Democratic Democratic Democratic 2-0 Democratic
41.5-10.9(d)[36]
South Carolina Republican Republican Republican 28-18 Republican 78-46 Republican Republican Republican 6-1 Republican
44-39(e)
South Dakota Republican Republican Republican 27-8 Republican 58-12 Republican Republican Republican 1-0 Republican
46.2-33.8(d)[37]
Tennessee Republican Republican Republican 27-6 Republican 73-26 Republican Republican Republican 7-2 Republican
47-35(e)
Texas Republican Republican Republican 20-11 Republican 98-52 Republican Republican Republican 25-11 Republican
41-37(e)
Utah Republican Republican Republican 23-4-2(b) Republican 62-13 Republican Republican Republican 4-0 Republican
59-26(e)
Vermont Democratic Democratic Democratic 20-9-1(a) Democratic 84-55-9(a) Democratic Independent(a) Democratic 1-0 Democratic
47-31(e)
Virginia Democratic Democratic Republican 21-19 Republican 66-33 Democratic Democratic Republican 8-3 Republican
42-40(e)
Washington Democratic Democratic Coalition 26(f)-23 Democratic 50-47-1(b) Democratic Democratic Democratic 6-4 Democratic
45-37(e)
West Virginia Republican Democratic Republican 18-16 Republican 64-36 Democratic Republican Republican 3-0 Democratic
49.4-28.9(d)[38]
Wisconsin Democratic Republican Republican 19-14 Republican 63-36 Republican Democratic Republican 5-3 Democratic
43-41(e)
Wyoming Republican Republican Republican 26-4 Republican 51-9 Republican Republican Republican 1-0 Republican
66.7-19.8(d)[39]
Totals
President
(2012)		 U.S. Senate
(2014)		 U.S. House of
Representatives (2014)		 Governor
(2014)		 Majority in
State Senate (2014)		 Majority in
State House (2014)
Democratic 332-206 Republican 54-44-2(a) Republican 247-188 Republican 31-18-1 Republican 36-14 Republican 33-16

(a) Independent/Third Party. Independent usually caucusing with different party.

(b) Vacancy.

(c) While the Nebraska State Senate is technically non-partisan the majority of its members are Republicans.

(d) Indicated partisan breakdown numbers are from the registration-by-party figures ("active" registered voters, when applicable) from that state's registered voter statistics (late 2014 party registration figures provided whenever possible).

(e) Indicated partisan breakdown numbers are from the Party Identification by State figures for 2014 from Gallup polling (note: Gallup figures have been rounded to two significant figures on the assumption that figures from polling are less accurate than registration-by-party figures).[7]

(f) The Washington State and New York State Senates currently operate under a coalition between majority Republicans and independent Democrats.

(g) Partisans who are not caucusing with their own party in the chamber.

Regional breakdowns

Local and regional political circumstances often influence party strength.

State government

The following figure is for Governors as of January 2016:

Governor
United States Governors map.svg

The following figures for party control of state legislative chambers are as of January 2015:

State Senate State House
Upper House majority Lower House majority

Presidential election results and congressional delegations

The following is based on the results of the 2012 Presidential election:

Presidential Election
United States Presidential Election 2012.

The following are the current standings in the U.S. Senate and in the U.S. House as of the 114th Congress:

Senate House of Representatives
Senators' party affiliations delegation by state. Percent of members of the House of Representatives from each party by state.

Demographics

US percentages by state 2010.png

Historical party strength

The following table shows how many state legislatures were controlled outright by each party.[40]

Year Democrats Republicans Split
1938 21 19 6
1940 21 17 8
1942 19 24 3
1944 19 24 3
1946 17 25 4
1948 19 16 11
1950 19 21 6
1952 16 26 4
1954 19 20 7
1956 22 19 5
1958 30 7 11
1960 27 15 6
1962 25 17 6
1964 32 6 10
1966 23 16 9
1968 20 20 8
1970 23 16 9
1972 26 16 7
1974 37 4 8
1976 35 4 10
1978 31 11 7
1980 29 15 5
1982 34 11 4
1984 26 11 12
1986 28 9 12
1988 29 8 12
1990 30 6 13
1992 25 8 16
1994 18 19 12
1996 20 18 11
1998 20 17 12
2000 16 18 15
2002 18 17 14
2003 16 21 12
2004 17 21 11
2005 20 20 9
2007 24 16 9
2008 23 15 12
2009 27 15 8
2010
2011 15 27 8
2012 15 29 6
2013 17 28 5
2014
2015 11 31 8
2016

The following table shows how many governorships were controlled outright by each party.[40]

Year Democrats Republicans Independent
1922 26 22
1923 27 21
1924 23 25
1926 20 28
1927 19 29
1928 16 32
1930 24 22 2
1931 26 20 2
1932 36 10 2
1934 37 9 2
1936 38 7 3
1937 39 6 3
1938 29 19
1940 28 20
1942 24 24
1943 22 26
1944 25 23
1946 23 25
1947 24 24
1948 28 20
1950 22 26
1952 18 30
1953 19 29
1954 27 21
1956 28 20
1958 35 15
1960 34 16
1962 34 16
1964 33 17
1966 25 25
1967 24 26
1968 19 31
1969 18 32
1970 29 21
1971 30 20
1972 31 19
1973 32 18
1974 36 13 1
1976 37 12 1
1978 32 18
1979 31 19
1980 27 23
1982 34 16
1983 35 15
1984 34 16
1986 26 24
1988 28 22
1989 29 21
1990 28 20 2
1992 30 18 2
1993 29 19 2
1994 19 30 1
1995 18 31 1
1996 17 32 1
1998 17 31 2
1999 18 30 2
2000 19 29 2
2001 21 27 2
2002 24 26
2004 22 28
2006 28 22
2008 29 21
2009 26 24
2010 26 23 1
2011 20 29 1
2012
2013 20 30
2014 21 29
2015 18 31 1
2016

The following table describes how many state governments are fully controlled by either party or split.

Year Democrats Republicans Split
2009 18 10 22
2010 17 10 23
2011 11 22 17
2012 11 24 15
2013 13 25 12
2014 13 24 13
2015 7 24 19
2016 7 23 20

See also

References

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  11. ↑ For example, for earlier 2014 registration figures, see: Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found..
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  38. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  39. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  40. ↑ 40.0 40.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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