Portuguese legislative election, 2009

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Portuguese legislative election, 2009
← 2005 27 September 2009 2011 →
230 seats to the Portuguese Assembly
116 seats needed for a majority
  First party Second party
  Socrates2006-2t.jpg Manuela Ferreira Leite.jpg
Leader José Sócrates Manuela Ferreira Leite
Party PS PSD
Leader since 29 September 2004 31 May 2008
Leader's seat Castelo Branco[1] Lisbon[2]
Last election 121 seats, 45.0% 75 seats, 28.8%
Seats won 97 81
Seat change Decrease 24 Increase 6
Popular vote 2,077,238 1,653,665
Percentage 36.6% 29.1%
Swing Decrease 8.4% Increase 0.3%
Pt plelection 2009.PNG
The first and the second most voted parties in each district
(Azores and Madeira are not shown)
Prime Minister before election

José Sócrates
PS

 Elected Prime Minister

José Sócrates
PS

Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found. Legislative elections in Portugal were held on 27 September 2009 to renew all 230 members of the Assembly of the Republic.[3] The Socialist Party, led by incumbent Prime Minister José Sócrates, won the largest number of seats, but didn't repeat the overall majority they gained in 2005.[4]

The Socialist Party of Prime Minister José Sócrates came in first despite losing 9% of the vote and 24 seats.

In these elections there were approximately 9.5 million Portuguese at home and abroad called to determine the 230 seats in the Assembleia da República and 18th constitutional government in Portugal after 1976. The Socialists won the election with a clear lead over the conservative Social Democrats, with big gains for the People's Party and for the Left Bloc.

The election took place during the regular end of the previous four-year legislative period. From 2005 to 2009 ruled by the Socialist Party (PS), led by José Sócrates, with an absolute majority. The opinion polls at the beginning of the official election campaign on 12 September 2009, showed a too close to call race between the Socialists and the conservative Social Democrats,[5] but just days before the election the Socialists increased their lead over the Social Democrats.[6] A total of 13 parties and two coalitions competed in this election.

Focus of the campaign were the impact of global economic and financial crisis and the construction of new infrastructure projects, including the high-speed rail link Lisbon-Madrid and Lisbon-Porto-Vigo and the new Lisbon airport.

Neither of the two major parties won an absolute majority in the Assembly of the Republic, so, the future prime minister must form a coalition, or at least rely on other parties to govern. In this case, José Sócrates is in a better position than Manuela Ferreira Leite, since the Portuguese left won by 54.23% of the vote and 128 seats, against 39.54% and 102 deputies to the right.

On 12 October, José Sócrates was invited by President Aníbal Cavaco Silva to form government. The new cabinet was announced on 22 October and sworn in on 26 October.

Voter turnout was one of the lowest in Portuguese election history, as 59.7% of the electorate cast a ballot.

Electoral system

The Parliament of the Portuguese Republic consists of a single chamber, the Assembly of the Republic, composed of 230 members directly elected by universal adult suffrage for a maximum term of four years. Assembly members represent the entire country, rather than the constituencies in which they were elected. Governments require majority support in the Assembly in order to remain in office.

Each one of Portugal's eighteen administrative districts, as well as each one of the country's two autonomous regions - the Azores and Madeira - is an electoral constituency. Portuguese voters residing outside the national territory are grouped into two electoral constituencies - Europe and the rest of the world - each one of which elects two Assembly members. The remaining 226 seats are allocated among the national territory constituencies in proportion to their number of registered electors.

Political parties and party coalitions may present lists of candidates. The lists are closed, so electors may not choose individual candidates in or alter the order of such lists. Electors cast a ballot for a single list. The seats in each constituency are divided among parties according to the largest average method of proportional representation (PR), conceived by the Belgian mathematician Victor d'Hondt in 1899. Although there is no statutory threshold for participation in the allocation of Assembly seats, there is an effective threshold at the constituency level that depends on the district magnitude.[7] The use of the d'Hondt method makes for a higher effective threshold than certain other allocation method such as the Hare quota or Sainte-Laguë method, which are more generous to small parties.[8]

Parties

The parties that partook in the election, and their leaders, were:

José Sócrates, leader of the Socialist Party, was nominated Prime Minister.

Opinion polls

Vote

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first, and using the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. If such date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. When a specific poll does not show a data figure for a party, the party's cell corresponding to that poll is shown empty.

2009

Date Polling Firm/Source PS PSD CDU CDS–PP BE Others Lead
27 Sep 2009 Legislative Election 36.6 29.1 7.9 10.4 9.8 6.2 7.5
27 Sep (21:00) Eurosondagem 36.5 28.0 8.3 10.6 10.2 6.4 8.5
27 Sep (20:00) Eurosondagem 38.3 28.8 7.6 8.8 10.1 6.4 9.5
27 Sep Intercampus 38.0 28.3 7.5 10.1 10.0 6.1 9.7
27 Sep UCP–CESOP 38.0 27.0 8.5 10.0 10.5 6.0 11.0
Exit polls
21–24 Sep Aximage 36.6 27.5 8.0 8.1 9.2 10.6 9.1
21–23 Sep Intercampus 38.0 29.9 8.4 7.7 9.4 6.6 8.1
17–22 Sep UCP–CESOP 38.0 30.0 7.0 8.0 11.0 6.0 8.0
18–21 Sep Marktest 40.0 31.6 7.2 8.2 9.0 4.0 8.4
14–17 Sep Aximage 36.1 29.7 7.5 7.6 10.0 9.1 6.4
13–16 Sep Eurosondagem 34.9 31.6 8.4 8.4 9.6 7.1 3.3
12–15 Sep Intercampus 32.9 29.7 9.2 7.0 12.0 9.2 3.2
11–14 Sep UCP–CESOP 38.0 32.0 7.0 7.0 12.0 4.0 6.0
6–9 Sep Eurosondagem 33.6 32.5 9.4 8.0 9.6 6.9 1.1
4–8 Sep UCP–CESOP 37.0 35.0 8.0 6.0 11.0 3.0 2.0
4–7 Sep Marktest 35.3 32.4 6.9 5.2 16.2 4.0 2.9
1–4 Sep Aximage 34.5 28.9 7.8 8.1 10.4 10.3 5.6
23–28 Jul Eurosondagem 33.0 31.1 9.4 8.5 10.0 8.0 1.9
14–18 Jul Marktest 35.5 34.2 7.4 4.4 14.3 4.2 1.3
1–6 Jul Aximage 30.5 30.3 9.5 6.1 13.3 10.3 0.2
25–30 Jun Eurosondagem 35.1 33.0 9.7 7.4 9.6 5.2 2.1
16–20 Jun Marktest 34.5 35.8 7.7 4.4 13.1 4.5 1.3
7 Jun 2009 EP Election 26.5 31.7 10.6 8.4 10.7 12.1 5.2
7 Jun Intercampus 36.9 31.2 10.3 6.4 13.1 2.1 5.7
1–4 Jun Aximage 35.3 29.8 9.0 6.5 11.5 7.9 5.5
28 May–2 Jun Eurosondagem 39.6 33.0 7.9 5.6 9.1 4.8 6.6
20–22 May Marktest 36.3 28.3 9.4 7.1 14.7 4.2 8.0
5–7 May Aximage 37.3 26.7 8.5 5.2 12.6 9.7 10.6
30 Apr–5 May Eurosondagem 38.8 30.5 9.2 6.9 9.8 4.8 8.3
25–26 Apr UCP–CESOP 41.0 34.0 7.0 2.0 12.0 4.0 7.0
14–19 Apr Marktest 36.2 26.4 11.2 8.3 13.6 4.3 9.8
1–3 Apr Aximage 38.1 25.1 10.3 5.7 12.6 8.2 13.0
25–31 Mar Eurosondagem 39.6 29.6 9.4 7.0 9.6 4.8 10.0
17–21 Mar Marktest 36.7 28.4 8.9 9.4 12.6 4.0 8.3
2–5 Mar Aximage 38.3 24.0 9.0 6.8 12.6 9.3 14.3
26 Feb–3 Mar Eurosondagem 39.0 28.3 9.6 7.7 10.4 5.0 10.7
17–22 Feb Marktest 38.2 28.8 10.6 4.1 14.0 4.3 9.4
2–5 Feb Aximage 38.2 23.8 9.2 7.7 12.0 9.1 14.4
28 Jan–3 Feb Eurosondagem 40.3 29.1 8.8 6.9 10.1 4.8 11.2
20–23 Jan Marktest 39.6 24.9 11.9 9.7 10.1 3.8 14.7
7–13 Jan Eurosondagem 41.1 30.1 8.3 6.1 9.6 4.8 11.0
6–9 Jan Aximage 37.3 23.3 8.1 7.7 11.4 12.2 14.0

2008

2007

2006

2005

National summary of votes and seats

Ballot for the district of Setúbal.
e • d Summary of the 27 September 2009 Assembly of the Republic elections results
Parties Votes % ±pp swing MPs MPs %/
votes %
2005 2009 ± % ±
Socialist 2,077,238 36.56 Decrease8.4 121 97 Decrease24 42.17 Decrease10.4 1.15
Social Democratic 1,653,665 29.11 Increase0.3 71 81 Increase10 35.22 Increase4.3 1.21
People's 592,778 10.43 Increase3.1 12 21 Increase9 9.13 Increase3.9 0.88
Left Bloc 557,306 9.81 Increase3.4 8 16 Increase8 6.96 Increase3.5 0.71
Unitary Democratic Coalition[A] 446,279 7.86 Increase0.3 14 15 Increase1 6.52 Increase0.4 0.83
Workers' Communist Party 52,761 0.93 Increase0.1 0 0 Steady0 0.00 Steady0.0 0.0
Hope for Portugal Movement 25,949 0.46 — — 0 — 0.00 — 0.0
New Democracy 21,876 0.38 Decrease0.3 0 0 Steady0 0.00 Steady0.0 0.0
Merit and Society Movement 16,924 0.30 — — 0 — 0.00 — 0.0
People's Monarchist Party[B] 15,262 0.27 — 2 0 Decrease2 0.00 Decrease0.9 0.0
Earth Party / Humanist Party[C] 12,405 0.22 — — 0 — 0.00 — 0.0
National Renovator Party 11,503 0.20 Increase0.0 0 0 Steady0 0.00 Steady0.0 0.0
Portugal Pro-Life 8,461 0.15 — — 0 — 0.00 — 0.0
Portuguese Labour Party 4,974 0.09 — — 0 — 0.00 — 0.0
Workers Party of Socialist Unity 4,632 0.08 Decrease0.0 0 0 Steady0 0.00 Steady0.0 0.0
Earth Party[B][D] 3,265 0.06 — 2 0 Decrease2 0.00 Decrease0.9 0.0
Total valid 5,505,278 96.91 Decrease0.2 230 230 Steady0 100.00 Steady0.0 —
Blank ballots 99,086 1.74 Decrease0.1
Invalid ballots 76,894 1.35 Increase0.2
Total (turnout 59.68%) 5,681,258 100.00 Decrease4.6
A Portuguese Communist Party (13 MPs) and "The Greens" (2 MPs) ran in coalition.[9]
B Elected in 2005 in the Social Democratic Party eletoral lists.
C Earth Party / Humanist Party joint electoral list only in continental Portugal.
D Earth Party electoral list only in Madeira and Azores.
Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições
Vote share
PS
  
 36.56%
PSD
  
 29.11%
CDS-PP
  
 10.43%
BE
  
 9.81%
CDU
  
 7.86%
PCTP/MRPP
  
 0.93%
Others/Invalides
  
 5.30%

Distribution by constituency

Pt plelection 2009-2.PNG
e • d Results of the 2009 election of the Portuguese Assembly of the Republic
by constituency
Constituency % S % S % S % S % S Total
S
PS PSD CDS–PP BE CDU
Azores 39.7 3 35.7 2 10.3 – 7.3 – 2.2 – 5
Aveiro 33.8 6 34.6 7 13.0 2 9.0 1 3.8 – 16
Beja 34.9 2 14.6 – 5.7 – 10.0 – 29.1 1 3
Braga 41.7 9 30.8 6 9.7 2 7.8 1 4.6 1 19
Bragança 33.0 1 40.6 2 12.6 – 6.2 – 2.4 – 3
Castelo Branco 41.0 2 29.8 2 8.4 – 9.1 – 5.1 – 4
Coimbra 38.0 4 30.6 4 8.8 1 10.8 1 5.7 – 10
EvoraÉvora 35.0 1 19.0 1 6.4 – 11.1 – 22.3 1 3
Faro 31.9 3 26.2 3 10.7 1 15.3 1 7.8 – 8
Guarda 36.0 2 35.6 2 11.2 – 7.6 – 3.3 – 4
Leiria 30.1 4 34.9 4 12.6 1 9.5 1 5.1 – 10
Lisbon 36.4 19 25.1 13 11.0 5 10.8 5 9.9 5 47
Madeira 19.4 1 48.1 4 11.1 1 6.2 – 4.2 – 6
Portalegre 38.3 1 23.8 1 8.0 – 10.8 – 12.9 – 2
Porto 41.8 18 29.2 12 9.3 4 9.2 3 5.7 2 39
Santarém 33.7 4 27.0 3 11.2 1 11.8 1 9.2 1 10
Setúbal 34.0 7 16.4 3 9.1 1 14.0 2 20.1 4 17
Viana do Castelo 36.3 3 31.3 2 13.6 1 8.6 – 4.2 – 6
Vila Real 36.1 2 41.1 3 10.1 – 5.5 – 2.9 – 5
Viseu 34.7 4 37.5 4 13.4 1 6.5 – 2.9 – 9
zEurope 43.3 1 23.8 1 4.7 – 4.7 – 4.4 – 2
zRest of the World 22.0 – 54.5 2 3.2 – 2.0 – 1.0 – 2
Total 36.6 97 29.1 81 10.4 21 9.8 16 7.9 15 230
Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições

References

  1. ↑ Assembleia da República - Deputados e Grupos Parlamentares
  2. ↑ Assembleia da República - Deputados e Grupos Parlamentares
  3. ↑ http://www.mherrera.org/elections.htm
  4. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found..
  5. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found..
  6. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found..
  7. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  8. ↑ Gallaher, Michael (1992). "Comparing Proportional Representation Electoral Systems: Quotas, Thresholds, Paradoxes and Majorities"
  9. ↑ Electoral results - Assembly of the Republic

External links

See also

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