United States Senate election in Florida, 2016

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United States Senate election in Florida, 2016
Florida
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Party Republican Democratic

Florida Presidential Election Results 2016.svg

Incumbent U.S. Senator

Marco Rubio
Republican



The 2016 United States Senate election in Florida will take place on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Florida, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primary elections for both the Republicans and Democrats will take place on August 30, 2016.[1]

Incumbent Republican Senator Marco Rubio openly considered whether to seek re-election or run for President in 2016.[2][3][4] He stated in April 2014 that he would not run for both the Senate and President in 2016, as Florida law prohibits a candidate from appearing twice on a ballot, but did not rule out running for either office.[5] In April 2015, he announced that he was running for President[6] and would not seek re-election.[7][8][9] Rubio has said he will not run for re-election to the Senate even if he drops out of the GOP presidential primary (which he did after it took place in Florida on March 15, 2016) before he would have to qualify for the 2016 Senate primary ballot, for which the filing deadline is June 24, 2016.[10]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Carlos
Beruff
Ron
DeSantis
David
Jolly
Ilya
Katz
Carlos
López-Cantera
Todd
Wilcox
Other/
Undecided
News 13/Bay News 9 March 4–6, 2016 724 ± 3.7% 1% 11% 18% 4% 9% 7% 50%
Washington Post/Univision March 2–5, 2016 450 ± 5.5% 0% 6% 5% 6% 2% 81%
Public Policy Polling February 24–25, 2016 464 ± 4.6% 14% 26% 11% 2% 47%
Florida Atlantic University College of Business January 15–18, 2016 345 ± 5.2% 8% 28% 8% 57%
St. Pete Polls/Saint Petersblog December 14–15, 2015 2,694 ± 1.9% 17.6% 20.7% 10.3% 7.5% 43.9%
St. Leo University November 29–December 3, 2015 147 ± 8% 6.1% 11.6% 4.1% 8.2% 6.8% 63.3%
Public Policy Polling September 11–13, 2015 377 ± 5.1% 15% 18% 14% 52%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

  • Lateresa Jones, life coach and Independent candidate for Lieutenant Governor in 2014 (running as an Independent)[94][95]

Potential

Declined

Endorsements

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Alan
Grayson
Pam
Keith
Lateresa
Jones
Patrick
Murphy
Other/
Undecided
Public Policy Polling March 22–23, 2016 829  ? 33% 32% 35%
St. Leo University March 13–17, 2016 540 ± 5% 17% 20% 63%
Mason-Dixon March 7–9, 2016 500 ± 4.5% 19% 33% 48%
SurveyUSA March 4–6, 2016 592 ± 4.1% 16% 11% 27% 46%
Bendixon & Amandi/The Tarrance Group March 2–5, 2016 449 ± 6% 19% 27% 54%
Univision March 2–5, 2016 449 ± 6% 29% 36% 35%
Public Policy Polling February 24–25, 2016 388 ± 5% 33% 22% 45%
20/20 Insight LLC* ~February 16–18, 2016 646 ± 3.9% 41% 32% 27%
Florida Atlantic University College of Business January 15–18, 2016 371 ± 5% 27% 20% 53%
St. Leo University November 29–December 3, 2015 160 ± 7.5% 7.1% 4.4% 6.3% 16.9% 54.6%
Public Policy Polling September 11–13, 2015 368 ± 5.1% 33% 27% 39%
Mason-Dixon July 20–24, 2015 500 ± 4.5% 24% 26% 50%
33% 32% 35%
St. Pete Polls July 15, 2015 1,018 ± 3.1% 29.7% 7.7% 23.2% 39.4%
Gravis Marketing June 16–20, 2015 881 ± 3.3% 63% 19% 18%
Vox Populi Polling June 15–17, 2015 717 ± 3.7% 24% 34% 42%
St. Leo University May 25–31, 2015 535 ± 4.5% 24% 27% 49%
Mason-Dixon April 14–16, 2015 400 ± 5% 14% 23% 63%
Public Policy Polling March 19–22, 2015 371 ± 5.1% 22% 21% 56%
  • * Internal poll for Alan Grayson

Results

Democratic primary result
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Alan Grayson 0 0.00
Democratic Pam Keith 0 0.00
Democratic Patrick Murphy 0 0
Total votes 0 0

Libertarian Party

On October 1, 2015, Adrian Wyllie and Lynn House, Chair and Vice Chair respectively of the Libertarian Party of Florida, resigned their seats in protest after the executive committee refused to oust candidate Augustus Invictus from the party. According to Wyllie, Invictus had defended eugenics, called for a new Civil War, and brutally slaughtered a goat, and is not representative of the Libertarian Party. Invictus has refuted these claims, calling Wyllie's accusations, "deliberate misrepresentation[s]."[149]

Candidates

Declared

Potential

Independent

Candidates

Declared

  • Lateresa Jones, life coach and candidate for Lieutenant Governor in 2014[153]
  • Anton "Tony" Khoury [154]

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[155] Tossup March 25, 2016
Daily Kos[156] Tossup March 31, 2016
Roll Call[157] Tossup March 31, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[158] Tossup March 21, 2016

Polling

With Beruff
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Carlos
Beruff (R)
Alan
Grayson (D)
Other Undecided
Quinnipiac University April 27–May 8, 2016 1,051 ± 3.0% 35% 36% 29%


Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Carlos
Beruff (R)
Patrick
Murphy (D)
Other Undecided
Quinnipiac University April 27–May 8, 2016 1,051 ± 3.0% 32% 38% 30%
Associated Industries of Florida April 25–27, 2016 604 ± 5.0% 31% 39% 30%
With Wilcox
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Todd
Wilcox (R)
Alan
Grayson (D)
Other Undecided
Quinnipiac University April 27–May 8, 2016 1,051 ± 3.0% 37% 35% 28%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Todd
Wilcox (R)
Patrick
Murphy (D)
Other Undecided
Quinnipiac University April 27–May 8, 2016 1,051 ± 3.0% 33% 38% 27%
With DeSantis
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Ron
DeSantis (R)
Alan
Grayson (D)
Other Undecided
Quinnipiac University April 27–May 8, 2016 1,051 ± 3.0% 38% 36% 26%
Public Policy Polling February 24–25, 2016 1,012 ± 3.1% 34% 40% 26%
Quinnipiac University September 25-October 5, 2015 1,173 ± 2.9% 31% 37% 1% 26%
Public Policy Polling September 11–13, 2015 814 ± 3.4% 37% 36% 28%
Quinnipiac University June 4–15, 2015 1,147 ± 2.9% 32% 38% 1% 29%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Ron
DeSantis (R)
Patrick
Murphy (D)
Other Undecided
Quinnipiac University April 27–May 8, 2016 1,051 ± 3.0% 35% 36% 29%
Associated Industries of Florida April 25–27, 2016 604 ± 5% 28% 40% 32%
Public Policy Polling February 24–25, 2016 1,012 ± 3.1% 31% 43% 26%
Quinnipiac University September 25-October 5, 2015 1,173 ± 2.9% 30% 37% 1% 29%
Public Policy Polling September 11–13, 2015 814 ± 3.4% 35% 40% 25%
Quinnipiac University June 4–15, 2015 1,147 ± 2.9% 31% 39% 1% 29%
St. Leo University May 25–31, 2015 535 ± 4.5% 14% 33% 53%
With Jolly
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
David
Jolly (R)
Alan
Grayson (D)
Other Undecided
Quinnipiac University April 27–May 8, 2016 1,051 ± 3.0% 37% 35% 28%
Public Policy Polling February 24–25, 2016 1,012 ± 3.1% 38% 35% 26%
Public Policy Polling September 11–13, 2015 814 ± 3.4% 39% 36% 26%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
David
Jolly (R)
Patrick
Murphy (D)
Other Undecided
Quinnipiac University April 27–May 8, 2016 1,051 ± 3.0% 34% 37% 29%
Associated Industries of Florida April 25–27, 2016 604 ± 5% 33% 40% 27%
Public Policy Polling February 24–25, 2016 1,012 ± 3.1% 34% 38% 27%
Democracy Corps October 24–28, 2015 400 ± 4.9% 44% 43% 13%
Public Policy Polling September 11–13, 2015 814 ± 3.4% 35% 40% 25%
St. Leo University May 25–31, 2015 535 ± 4.5% 14% 35% 52%
With Lopez-Cantera
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Carlos
López-Cantera (R)
Alan
Grayson (D)
Other Undecided
Quinnipiac University April 27–May 8, 2016 1,051 ± 3.0% 37% 37% 26%
Public Policy Polling February 24–25, 2016 1,012 ± 3.1% 35% 38% 26%
Quinnipiac University September 25-October 5, 2015 1,173 ± 2.9% 32% 35% 1% 27%
Public Policy Polling September 11–13, 2015 814 ± 3.4% 34% 41% 24%
Quinnipiac University June 4–15, 2015 1,147 ± 2.9% 31% 37% 1% 31%
Quinnipiac University March 17–28, 2015 1,087 ± 3% 33% 32% 1% 34%
Public Policy Polling March 19–22, 2015 923 ± 3.2% 36% 40% 24%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Carlos
López-Cantera (R)
Patrick
Murphy (D)
Other Undecided
Quinnipiac University April 27–May 8, 2016 1,051 ± 3.0% 34% 38% 28%
Associated Industries of Florida April 25–27, 2016 604 ± 5% 31% 42% 27%
Public Policy Polling February 24–25, 2016 1,012 ± 3.1% 31% 40% 29%
Quinnipiac University September 25-October 5, 2015 1,173 ± 2.9% 29% 37% 1% 30%
Public Policy Polling September 11–13, 2015 814 ± 3.4% 35% 41% 24%
Quinnipiac University June 4–15, 2015 1,147 ± 2.9% 28% 40% 1% 32%
St. Leo University May 25–31, 2015 535 ± 4.5% 15% 30% 56%
Quinnipiac University March 17–28, 2015 1,087 ± 3% 31% 35% 1% 33%
Public Policy Polling March 19–22, 2015 923 ± 3.2% 34% 41% 25%

See also

References

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External links

Official campaign websites