United States Senate election in Ohio, 2010

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United States Senate election in Ohio, 2010
← 2004 November 2, 2010 2016 →
  Rob Portman, official portrait, 112th Congress.jpg 125px
Nominee Rob Portman Lee Fisher
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 2,125,810 1,448,092
Percentage 57.3% 39.0%
Ohio Senatorial Election Results by County, 2010.svg
County results
U.S. senator before election

George Voinovich
Republican

 Elected U.S. Senator

Rob Portman[1]
Republican

Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found. The 2010 United States Senate election in Ohio was held on November 2, 2010, as one of many Ohio elections in 2010. Incumbent two-term Republican U.S. Senator George Voinovich decided to retire instead of seeking a third term.[2] Republican Rob Portman won the open seat.

Democratic primary

Background

Congressman Tim Ryan, Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, and Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher were considered leading contenders to run against George Voinovich.[3] Ohio Governor Ted Strickland urged Jennifer Brunner to run for re-election rather than run for the Senate.[4] Cuyahoga County Commissioner Peter Lawson Jones and Ohio State Representative Tyrone Yates considered running, but both withdrew from consideration.[5][6]

Candidates

Campaign

On February 17, 2009, Brunner and Fisher both officially announced their candidacies for the now-open seat election, with Strickland officially endorsing Fisher.[4][7][8] Ryan declined to run and endorsed Fisher in July.[9]

Fisher was endorsed by Governor Ted Strickland and U.S. Representatives John Boccieri, Tim Ryan, Zack Space, and Charlie Wilson.[10]

Polling in late 2009 and January 2010 showed Brunner to be more competitive than Fisher in a general election matchup against Portman, while Fisher and Brunner were deadlocked in Democratic primary polling.[11]

Charlene Renee Bradley and Traci Johnson also filed to run in the Democratic primary.[12]

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Jennifer Brunner Lee Fisher Other Undecided
Quinnipiac University January 29-Feb. 2, 2009 492 ± 4.4% 16% 18% 14% 53%
Quinnipiac University March 10–15, 2009 506 ± 4.4% 14% 18% 1% 46%
Quinnipiac University April 28-May 4, 2009 437 ± 4.7% 16% 20% 1% 59%
Quinnipiac University June 26-July 1, 2009 483 ± 4.5% 21% 24% 2% 51%
Research 2000 July 6–8, 2009 400 ± 5.0% 17% 22% — 61%
Quinnipiac University September 10–13, 2009 421 ± 4.8% 17% 26% 2% 55%
Quinnipiac University November 5–9, 2009 394 ± 4.9% 22% 24% 1% 51%
Quinnipiac University February 16–21, 2010 604 ± 4.0% 20% 29% 2% 48%
Quinnipiac University March 25–28, 2010 978 ± 3.1% 26% 33% 1% 40%
Research 2000 April 5–7, 2010 400 ± 4.0% 26% 35% — 39%
Quinnipiac University April 22–26, 2010 987 ± 3.1% 24% 41% 1% 34%
Suffolk University April 27–29, 2010 400 ± 4.9% 27% 55% — 18%
Quinnipiac University April 29-May 2, 2010 980 ± 3.1% 23% 43% 1% 32%

Results

Democratic primary results[13]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Lee Fisher 380,189 55.6
Democratic Jennifer Brunner 304,026 44.4
Total votes 684,206 100

Republican primary

Background

With rumors circulating about Voinovich's possible retirement, former Director of the Office of Management and Budget, United States Trade Representative, and Congressman Rob Portman and State Auditor Mary Taylor were considered the main contenders for the Republican nomination.[14] Former Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell was also considered a potential candidate, but declined in order to run for chairman of the Republican National Committee.[15]

Candidate

Campaign

When Voinovich made his retirement official, Portman declared his candidacy the next day.[16] Thomas Ganley, a Cleveland car dealer, launched his campaign for the nomination in April, after Portman had collected support from most of the Ohio Republican establishment.[17] Taylor officially declined to run in May and was announced as gubernatorial candidate John Kasich's running mate on January 12, 2010 [18]

Ganley was the only other declared candidate, but on February 17, 2010, he announced that he would switch races and run against Betty Sutton in Ohio's 13th congressional district instead,[19] leaving Portman as the only Republican candidate. He had over $7 million in campaign funds.[20]

Results

Republican primary results[21]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Rob Portman 667,369 100
Total votes 657,354 100

General election

Candidates

Campaign

When the incumbent announced he would retire, Portman jumped into the race in early 2009. During the two-year time period, Portman raised over $9 million.[22] Originally, the election was seen as a toss up.[23] His experience as a former Bush official was considered to be a big problem for Portman. Both President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden campaigned for Fisher.[24]

Television advertisements were very negative. Fisher attacked Portman for helping to ship jobs overseas during his entire political career, backing deals that shipped jobs overseas, and the trade deficit with China, which grew by over $41 billion.[25] Portman claimed in response that most jobs were being lost to other states, not countries.[26] Portman attacked Fisher for supporting Obama's stimulus and cap and trade.[27][28]

Debates

Three debates were held in Cleveland, Columbus, and Toledo.[29] The first one was in Toledo on October 5. The second one was in Cleveland on October 8, while the third was in Columbus on October 12.

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report Safe R[30] October 22, 2010
Electoral-vote.com Strong R[31] October 21, 2010
FiveThirtyEight.com R[32] October 21, 2010
Rothenberg R favored[33] October 15, 2010
Swing State Project Safe R[citation needed]
RealClearPolitics Solid R[34] October 22, 2010
Rasmussen Reports Solid R[35] October 20, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball Likely R[36] October 21, 2010
CQ Politics Safe R[37] October 22, 2010

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Lee Fisher (D) Rob Portman (R) Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling (report) January 17–18, 2009 578 ± 4.1% 39% 41% — 20%
Quinnipiac University (report) January 29-Feb. 2, 2009 1,127 ± 2.9% 42% 27% 1% 29%
Quinnipiac University (report) March 10–15, 2009 1,299 ± 2.7% 41% 33% 1% 24%
Quinnipiac University (report) April 28-May 4, 2009 1,079 ± 3.0% 42% 31% 1% 26%
Public Policy Polling (report) June 17–19, 2009 619 ± 3.9% 41% 32% — 27%
Quinnipiac University (report) June 26-July 1, 2009 1,259 ± 2.8% 37% 33% 2% 26%
Research 2000 (report) July 6–8, 2009 400 ± 5.0% 42% 35% — 23%
Quinnipiac University (report) September 10–13, 2009 1,074 ± 3.0% 42% 31% 1% 26%
Rasmussen Reports (report) September 23, 2009 500 ± 4.5% 40% 41% 6% 14%
Quinnipiac University (report) November 5–9, 2009 1,123 ± 2.9% 36% 39% — 24%
Rasmussen Reports (report) December 7, 2009 500 ± 4.5% 36% 38% 8% 18%
Rasmussen Reports (report) January 12, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 37% 44% 4% 14%
Rasmussen Reports (report) February 5–6, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 39% 43% 5% 13%
Quinnipiac University (report) February 16–21, 2010 1,662 ± 2.4% 37% 40% 2% 21%
Rasmussen Reports (report) March 4, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 39% 44% 5% 12%
Public Policy Polling (report) March 20–21, 2010 630 ± 3.9% 36% 41% — 23%
Quinnipiac (report) March 23–29, 2010 1,526 ± 2.5% 41% 37% 1% 21%
Rasmussen Reports (report) March 30, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 38% 43% 4% 14%
Research 2000 (report) April 5–7, 2010 600 ± 4.0% 43% 39% — 18%
Quinnipiac Polling (report) April 21–26, 2010 1,568 ± 2.5% 40% 37% 1% 21%
Rasmussen Reports (report) May 7, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 43% 42% 4% 14%
UC/The Ohio Poll (report) May 11–20, 2010 668 ± 3.8% 47% 46% — 6%
Rasmussen Reports (report) June 3, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 43% 43% 4% 10%
Quinnipiac Polling (report) June 22–27, 2010 1,107 ± 3.0% 42% 40% 1% 17%
Public Policy Polling (report) June 26–27, 2010 482 ± 4.5% 40% 38% –– 22%
Rasmussen Reports (report) June 29, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 39% 43% 4% 13%
Rasmussen Reports (report) July 19, 2010 750 ± 4.0% 39% 45% 5% 11%
Rasmussen Reports (report) August 2, 2010 750 ± 4.0% 40% 44% 5% 11%
Reuters/Ipsos (report) August 6–8, 2010 600 ± 4.0% 36% 43% — 21%
Rasmussen Reports (report) August 16, 2010 750 ± 4.0% 37% 45% 5% 13%
Public Policy Polling (report) August 27–29, 2010 475 ± 4.5% 38% 45% — 18%
Rasmussen Reports (report) August 30, 2010 750 ± 4.0% 39% 44% 7% 11%
The Columbus Dispatch (report) August 25-Sept. 3, 2010 1,622 ± 2.2% 37% 50% 3% 9%
Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research (report) September 11, 2010 1,000 ± 3.0% 41% 48% 3% 8%
Rasmussen Reports (report) September 13, 2010 750 ± 4.0% 41% 49% 2% 8%
CNN/Time Magazine (report) September 10–14, 2010 820 ± 3.5% 41% 52% 4% 2%
SurveyUSA (report) September 14, 2010 1000 ± 4.0% 40% 49% 7% 4%
Quinnipiac University (report) September 17, 2010 730 ± 3.6% 35% 55% — 1%
Ohio Newspapers Poll/UC (report) September 24, 2010 850 ± 4.0% 40% 55% — 5%
Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research (report) September 25, 2010 1,000 ± 3.0% 37% 50% 3% 11%
CBS/NY Times report) September 23–27, 2010 941 ± 3.0% 34% 45% — 18%
Reuters/Ipsos report) September 23–25, 2010 440 ± 3.0% 37% 50% — 13%
Rasmussen Reports (report) September 27, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 42% 51% 1% 6%
Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research (report) October 2, 2010 1,000 ± 3.0% 37% 53% 2% 8%
Quinnipiac University (report) September 29-Oct. 3, 2010 1,025 ± 3.1% 36% 55% — —
Angus Reid Public Opinion (report) Oct. 5-8, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 43% 52% 6% —
Rasmussen Reports (report) October 11, 2010 750 ± 4.0% 34% 57% 2% 7%
University of Cincinnati (report) October 8–13, 2010 705 ± 3.7% 36% 58% 1% 6%
Quinnipiac University (report) October 12–17, 2010 1,183 ± 2.8% 34% 55% 1% 10%
University of Cincinnati (report) October 14–18, 2010 839 ± 3.3% 39% 58% 0% 3%
CNN/Time/Opinion Research (report) October 15–19, 2010 1,502 ± 2.5% 40% 55% 2% 3%
Quinnipiac University (report) October 20, 2010 686 ± 2.5% 34% 55% — 2%
Wilson Research Strategies (report) October 20–21, 2010 500 ± 3.0% 38% 49% — 8%
SurveyUSA (report) October 22–26, 2010 950 ± 4.0% 37% 52% — 4%
Rasmussen Reports (report) October 26, 2010 750 ± 4.0% 33% 57% 3% 7%
Columbus Dispatch (report) October 20–29, 2010 1,445 ± 2.3% 40% 56% 0% 4%
Quinnipiac University (report) October 25–30, 2010 848 ± 3.4% 37% 56% 1% 8%
Angus Reid Public Opinion (report) October 27–29, 2010 460 ± 4.6% 40% 57% 3% —
Public Policy Polling (report) October 28–30, 2010 1,356 ± 2.7% 39% 57% 0% 4%
University of Cincinnati (report) October 27–31, 2010 930 ± 3.2% 39% 60% 0% 1%
University of Cincinnati (report) November 1, 2010 930 ± 3.2% 39% 61% 0% 0%

Fundraising

Candidate (party) Receipts Disbursements Cash on hand Debt
Rob Portman (R) $15,998,398 $10,493,211 $5,505,186 $0
Lee Fisher (D) $6,191,361 $5,882,729 $308,631 $0
Source: Federal Election Commission[38]

Results

Winning the election, Portman received 57% of the votes. He received the majority of votes in 82 of 88 counties and in 15 of 18 Congressional districts, including the district of liberal U.S. Congressman Dennis Kucinich.[39]

United States Senate election in Ohio, 2010  [40]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Rob Portman 2,168,742 56.85% -6.61%
Democratic Lee Fisher 1,503,297 39.40% +2.85%
Constitution Eric Deaton 65,856 1.72% N/A
Independent Michael Pryce 50,101 1.31% N/A
Socialist Daniel LaBotz 26,454 0.69% N/A
N/A Arthur Sullivan (write-in) 648 0.02% N/A
Majority 665,445 17.44%
Total votes 3,815.098 100.0
Republican hold Swing NA

See also

References

  1. ↑ Ohio Senate election results – Politics – Decision 2010 – msnbc.com
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  21. ↑ My Results
  22. ↑ Race Detail Display Page : Roll Call
  23. ↑ CQ Politics | Poll Tracker - Ohio Senate: Portman Even With Fisher, Leads Brunner
  24. ↑ Prospects in Ohio Looking Better for Senate GOP : Roll Call
  25. ↑ PolitiFact | Lee Fisher hammers Rob Portman on record in Bush administration
  26. ↑ Portman targets Fisher with claim that most jobs Ohio lost went to other states: PolitiFact Ohio | cleveland.com
  27. ↑ Democrats Use Portman Ad As Opening To Attack - The Eye (CQ Politics)
  28. ↑ RealClearPolitics - Portman Hits Fisher on Jobs in New Ad
  29. ↑ U.S. Senate candidates Rob Portman and Lee Fisher agree to debates in Cleveland, Columbus and Toledo | cleveland.com
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  39. ↑ http://www.rollcall.com/issues/56_97/-204148-1.html
  40. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.

External links

Official campaign websites
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