United States Senate special election in Alabama, 2017

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United States Senate special election in Alabama, 2017
Alabama
← 2014 December 12, 2017 (2017-12-12) 2020 →
  x150px x150px
Nominee Roy Moore Doug Jones
Party Republican Democratic

Incumbent U.S. Senator

Luther Strange
Republican



A special election for the United States Senate in Alabama is scheduled for December 12, 2017, to choose former Senator Jeff Sessions's successor for the term through January 3, 2021. Sessions resigned from the Senate in February 2017 to serve as U.S. Attorney General. Governor Robert J. Bentley chose Luther Strange, the Attorney General of Alabama, to succeed Sessions, filling the seat until the special election takes place. Although he had the power to schedule an election in 2017, Bentley initially decided to align it with the 2018 general election,[1] before Kay Ivey, his successor, later moved the date up to December 12, 2017, scheduling the primary for August 15 and primary runoff for September 26.[2]

Doug Jones, a former U.S. Attorney for the Northern District of Alabama, won the Democratic primary, while Roy Moore, a former Chief Justice of the Supreme Court of Alabama won the Republican primary, defeating incumbent U.S. senator Luther Strange in the primary runoff.[3]

On November 9, it was reported in The Washington Post that four women had accused Roy Moore of engaging in sexual conduct with them when they were teenagers. One of the women was 14 years old at the time, below the legal age of consent. Moore denied the allegations. After this, certain Republican leaders and conservative organizations withdrew their endorsements of Moore or asked him to drop out of the campaign. These include Ted Cruz, Jefferson Sessions, Ivanka Trump[4], National Republican Senatorial Committee,[5] former Republican presidential nominees Mitt Romney[6] and John McCain,[7] Republican Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell,[8] Ohio Governor John Kasich,[9] Utah Senator Mike Lee,[10] Montana Senator Steve Daines,[11] and House Representatives Barbara Comstock, Carlos Curbelo, and Adam Kinzinger.[12][13] Other conservative websites and organizations such as National Review urged readers not to vote for Moore.[14][15] Other Republican Senators such as Senator Lisa Murkowski have floated the prospect of a write-in campaign to elect Luther Strange, with Utah Senator Orrin Hatch actively endorsing a write-in campaign for Strange.[16]

Background

Potential appointees

Following then-President-elect Donald Trump's nomination of then-Senator Sessions to be U.S. Attorney General, Robert Aderholt, a member of the United States House of Representatives, had asked to be appointed to the seat.[17] Representative Mo Brooks had also expressed interest in the seat, while Strange had stated before being selected that he would run for the seat in the special election whether or not he was appointed.[18][19] Other potential choices Bentley interviewed for the appointment included Moore, Del Marsh, the President Pro Tem of the Alabama Senate, and Jim Byard, the director of the Alabama Department of Economic and Community Affairs.[20]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in runoff

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Polling

First round

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
James
Beretta
Joseph
Breault
Randy
Brinson
Mo
Brooks
Mary
Maxwell
Roy
Moore
Bryan
Peeples
Trip
Pittman
Luther
Strange
Undecided
Trafalgar Group[108] August 13–14, 2017 870 ± 3.3% 1% 1% 6% 17% 1% 38% 1% 6% 24% 5%
Emerson College[109] August 10–12, 2017 373 ± 5.0% 1% 0% 0% 15% 0% 29% 0% 10% 32% 11%
Trafalgar Group[110] August 8–10, 2017 1,439 ± 2.6% 1% 1% 4% 20% 2% 35% 1% 6% 23% 8%
Cygnal[111] August 8–9, 2017 502 ± 4.4% 2% 18% 31% 7% 23% 13%
Strategy Research[112] August 7, 2017 2,000 ± 2.0% 1% 1% 1% 19% 4% 35% 1% 9% 29% 0%
JMC Analytics (R)[113] August 5–6, 2017 500 ± 4.4% 2% 19% 30% 6% 22% 17%
RRH Elections[114] July 31 – August 3, 2017 426 ± 5.0% 2% 18% 31% 8% 29% 11%
Strategy Research[115] July 24, 2017 3,000 ± 2.0% 1% 1% 2% 16% 5% 33% 2% 5% 35%
Cygnal[116] July 20–21, 2017 500 ± 2.0% 16% 26% 33%

Runoff

Averages

Model Moore Strange Spread
RealClearPolitics[117] 52.5% 41.5% Moore +11.0

Polls

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Roy
Moore
Luther
Strange
Undecided
Cygnal[118] September 23–24, 2017 996 ± 3.1% 52% 41% 7%
Trafalgar Group[119] September 23–24, 2017 1,073 ± 3.0% 57% 41% 2%
Optimus[120] September 22–23, 2017 1,045 ± 2.9% 55% 45%
Emerson College[121] September 21–23, 2017 367 ± 5.1% 50% 40% 10%
Gravis Marketing[122] September 21–22, 2017 559 ± 4.1% 48% 40% 12%
Strategy Research[123] September 20, 2017 2,000 ± 3.0% 54% 46%
Strategy Research[124] September 18, 2017 2,930 ± 3.0% 53% 47%
JMC Analytics (R)[125] September 16–17, 2017 500 ± 4.4% 47% 39% 14%
Voter Consumer Research[126] September 9–10, 2017 604 ± 4.0% 41% 40% 19%
Emerson College[127] September 8–9, 2017 355 ± 5.2% 40% 26% 34%
Strategic National[128] September 6–7, 2017 800 ± 3.5% 51% 35% 14%
Southeast Research[129] August 29–31, 2017 401 ± 5.0% 52% 36% 12%
Harper Polling[130] August 24–26, 2017 600 ± 4.0% 47% 45% 8%
Voter Consumer Research[131] August 21–23, 2017 601 ± 4.0% 45% 41% 14%
Opinion Savvy[132] August 22, 2017 494 ± 4.4% 50% 32% 18%
JMC Analytics (R)[133] August 17–19, 2017 515 ± 4.3% 51% 32% 17%
Cygnal[111] August 8–9, 2017 502 ± 4.4% 45% 34% 11%
RRH Elections[114] July 31 – August 3, 2017 426 ± 5.0% 34% 32% 34%

Results

Republican primary results[3]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Roy Moore 164,524 38.9%
Republican Luther Strange (incumbent) 138,971 32.8%
Republican Mo Brooks 83,287 19.7%
Republican Trip Pittman 29,124 6.9%
Republican Randy Brinson 2,978 0.6%
Republican Bryan Peeples 1,579 0.4%
Republican Mary Maxwell 1,543 0.4%
Republican James Beretta 1,078 0.3%
Republican Dom Gentile 303 0.1%
Republican Joseph Breault 252 0.1%
Total votes 423,282 100.0%
Republican primary runoff results[134]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Roy Moore 262,204 54.6%
Republican Luther Strange (incumbent) 218,066 45.4%
Total votes 480,270 100.0%
Results of first round and runoff
{| class=" multicol" role="presentation" style="border-collapse: collapse; padding: 0; border: 0; background:transparent; width:100%;"

|style="width: 33.33%;text-align:left;vertical-align:top;" | Moore

  30-40%
  40-50%
  50-60%
  60-70%

|style="width: 33.33%;text-align:left;vertical-align:top;" | Strange

  30-40%
  40-50%
  50-60%

|style="width: 33.33%;text-align:left;vertical-align:top;" | Brooks

  40-50%
  50-60%
|} 
{| class=" multicol" role="presentation" style="border-collapse: collapse; padding: 0; border: 0; background:transparent; width:100%;"

| style="width:50%; text-align:left; vertical-align:top;" | Moore

  50-60%
  60-70%
  70-80%

| style="width:50%; text-align:left; vertical-align:top;" | Strange

  50-60%
|} 

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

  • Ron Crumpton, activist, nominee for the State Senate in 2014 and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2016[142][49]
  • Brian McGee, retired teacher and Vietnam War veteran[23][143][144]

Declined

Endorsements

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Will
Boyd
Vann
Caldwell
Jason
Fisher
Michael
Hansen
Doug
Jones
Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Charles
Nana
Undecided
Emerson College[109] August 10–12, 2017 164 ± 7.6% 8% 2% 1% 0% 40% 23% 1% 25%
Strategy Research[165] August 7, 2017 2,000 ± 2.0% 9% 5% 3% 7% 30% 40% 5%
Strategy Research[166] July 24, 2017 3,000 ± 2.0% 6% 4% 4% 4% 28% 49% 5%

Results

Democratic primary results[3]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Doug Jones 109,105 66.1%
Democratic Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 29,215 17.7%
Democratic Michael Hansen 11,105 6.7%
Democratic Will Boyd 8,010 4.9%
Democratic Jason Fisher 3,478 2.1%
Democratic Brian McGee 1,450 0.9%
Democratic Charles Nana 1,404 0.9%
Democratic Vann Caldwell 1,239 0.8%
Total votes 165,006 100.0%
Results
{| class=" multicol" role="presentation" style="border-collapse: collapse; padding: 0; border: 0; background:transparent; width:100%;"

| style="width:50%; text-align:left; vertical-align:top;" | Jones

  40-50%
  50-60%
  60-70%
  70-80%
  80-90%
  90-100%

| style="width:50%; text-align:left; vertical-align:top;" | Boyd

  30-40%
|} 


Independents

Candidates

Declared

  • Eulas Kirtdoll (write-in)[167]
  • Arlester "Mack" McBride (write-in)[168]
  • Mac Watson (write-in)[169]

Declined

General election

Roy Moore teenager sexual assault and harassment scandal

The Roy Moore teenager sexual assault and harassment scandal occurred when seven women came forward and described an unwanted sexual advance or assault by Moore when they were in their teens. One woman, Leigh Corfman, said that Moore initiated a sexual encounter with her in 1979, when she was 14 and he was 32 years old.[170] Another woman, Beverly Young Nelson, said she had received unwanted attention from Moore when she was 15 years old, and said that—in December 1977 or January 1978[171]—when she was 16 Moore sexually assaulted her. Nelson accepted a ride from Moore after she finished work because she "trusted him because he was the District Attorney". She said that Moore stopped the car, began groping her and then tried to force her head into his crotch. She said that when she fought him off, he eventually gave up, but told her, "You're just a child, I'm the district attorney; if you tell anyone about this no one will ever believe you."[172][173]

Debates

Republican nominee Roy Moore has refused to debate Democratic nominee Doug Jones.[174][175][176] Moore turned down debate invitations extended by the League of Women Voters[175] and WHNT-TV and AL.com.[176][174] Jones' campaign said that Jones was "willing to debate Roy Moore anytime, anywhere" and accused Moore of "hiding from the voters, from the media and from his record for weeks."[176][174] Moore and his campaign stated that he refused to debate Jones because their policy positions were already clear to voters and thus there was no need for a formal debate.[176][174]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[177] Tossup November 14, 2017
Sabato's Crystal Ball[178] Lean D November 15, 2017
Rothenberg Political Report[179] Tossup November 14, 2017

Candidates

On ballot

Write-in

Endorsements


Averages

Model Moore Jones Spread
RealClearPolitics[302] 48.3% 46.3% Moore +2.0%

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Roy
Moore (R)
Doug
Jones (D)
Mack
McBride (I)
Other Undecided
FOX10 News/Strategy Research[303] November 13, 2017 3,000 ± 2.0% 49% 43% 8%
NRSC (R)[304][305] November 12–13, 2017 500 39% 51% 10%
WT&S Consulting (R)[306] November 11, 2017 1,536 ± 3.3% 50% 40% 11%
Emerson College[307] November 9–11, 2017 600 ± 3.9% 49% 40% 11%
JMC Analytics (R)[308] November 9–11, 2017 575 ± 4.1% 44% 48% 2% 6%
Change Research[309] November 9–11, 2017 1,855 44% 40% 3% 13%
Google Consumer Surveys[310] November 9–11, 2017 534 ± 4.2% 52% 49%
Gravis Marketing[311] November 10, 2017 478 ± 4.5% 48% 46% 6%
WT&S Consulting (R)[306] November 9, 2017 1,354 ± 3.5% 50% 39% 11%
Opinion Savvy[312] November 9, 2017 515 ± 4.3% 46% 46% 4% 4%
WBRC-TV/Strategy Research[313] October 19 – November 8, 2017 2,200 ± 2.0% 51% 40% 9%
NRSC (R)[304] November 6–7, 2017 51% 42% 8%
Axis Research (R-SLF)[314] October 24–26, 2017 503 ± 4.5% 56% 39% 5%
FOX10 News/Strategy Research[315] October 23, 2017 3,000 ± 3.0% 52% 41% 7%
WBRC-TV/Strategy Research[316] October 16, 2017 3,000 ± 2.5% 51% 40% 9%
Fox News[317] October 14–16, 2017 801 ± 3.5% 42% 42% 3% 11%
NRSC (R)[304] October 3–5, 2017 53% 37% 10%
Cygnal/L2[318] October 2–5, 2017 497 ± 4.4% 49% 41% 9%
JMC Analytics (R)[319] September 30 – October 1, 2017 500 ± 4.4% 48% 40% 1% 11%
Opinion Savvy[320] September 27–28, 2017 590 ± 4.0% 50% 45% 5%
Google Consumer Surveys[321] September 22–25, 2017 451 ± 4.0% 58% 42% 0%
Emerson College[121] September 21–23, 2017 519 ± 4.3% 52% 30% 18%
Emerson College[127] September 8–9, 2017 416 ± 4.8% 44% 40% 16%
Google Consumer Surveys[322] May 15–17, 2017 335 ± 5.2% 56% 44% 0%

References

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  202. James, Frannie. "Thank you for being there. And, for your support of #DougJonesforSenate. Happy to have you aboard the #DigDoug2017Express #ALSENpic.twitter.com/IaePqMiHQp".<templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
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  206. Fisher, Jason. "If he blocks his opponent & refuses to debate, he'll also ignore his constituents if elected". Twitter.com. Retrieved November 12, 2017.<templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
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  208. Best, Adam (September 26, 2017). "If Roy Moore wins today, we must help Doug Jones beat him. An anti-LGBTQ birther who totes a gun on stage doesn't belong in the US Senate".<templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
  209. Painter, Richard W. (September 27, 2017). "Alabama: Unless you want a man who talks like the Taliban representing you in the Senate Doug Jones is your man".<templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
  210. Takei, George (September 26, 2017). "Tonight, AL Republicans nominated anti-LGBT anti-immigrant Roy Moore to be their Senate candidate. Let's help elect Dem Doug Jones instead". Twitter.com. Retrieved November 12, 2017.<templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
  211. sean (September 26, 2017). "Doug Jones will run against Roy Moore in December. Let's replace white nationalist Jeff Sessions with the man who prosecuted the KKK".<templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
  212. Parnell, Archie (September 28, 2017). "Pay attention to the #ALSen race, & support @GDouglasJones. Doug Jones can win this special election w your support".<templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
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  215. Kristol, Bill. "1. Doug Jones would be a better U.S. senator than Roy Moore. Moore as a senator would be a constant embarrassment to the GOP". Twitter.com. Retrieved October 28, 2017.<templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
  216. Kessler, Jim. "Roy Moore isn't just a kook. He's a crook". Twitter.com. Retrieved October 28, 2017.<templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
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  218. Fuller, Bonnie. "Doug Jones for senator in Alabama: come on Alabama do what's right for your state & your families!". Twitter.com. Retrieved October 28, 2017.<templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
  219. Cherny, Andrei. "Hard to imagine a more stark choice between Doug Jones and Roy Moore". Twitter.com. Retrieved October 28, 2017.<templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
  220. Cardona, Maria. "WOWZA!!! And this is a FOX NEWS POLL!!! Fox News Senate poll: Doug Jones, Roy Moore are tied". Twitter.com. Retrieved October 28, 2017.<templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
  221. Daughtry, Leah D. "I'll be going to #Alabama to campaign for Doug Jones, who prosecuted ages old 16thSt Baptist bombing case and won". Twitter.com. Retrieved October 28, 2017.<templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
  222. Kelly, Michael. "Watch this video, follow this man @GDouglasJones , & let's tell all our friends in #Alabama that this is the direction our Country can go". Twitter.com. Retrieved October 28, 2017.<templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
  223. Carville, James. "MUST READ from Bama experts on AL Sen @JohnAnzo and @ZacMcCrary I'm not for the Tide but I'm for @GDouglasJones". Twitter.com. Retrieved October 28, 2017.<templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
  224. Milano, Alyssa. "I love Alabama. And I also love @GDouglasJones". Twitter.com. Retrieved October 28, 2017.<templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
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  233. Parkhomenko, Adam. "Russia is actively trying to change the perceptions of voters to favor GOP candidates in Alabama & Virginia. Where the hell is the outrage?". Twitter.com. Retrieved November 12, 2017.<templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
  234. Jeffery, Clara. "Doug Jones is all that stands between us and a future with Roy Moore as a Senator: Read @pemalevy:". Twitter.com. Retrieved November 12, 2017.<templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
  235. Sellers, Bakari. "First things first. Not 2018 but Alabama! Go here. Contribute. $5, $10, whatever you can. I'll be in Bama soon". Twitter.com. Retrieved November 12, 2017.<templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
  236. Begala, Paul. "Every Virginian who worked and walked; every American who phoned and donated; every progressive who put unity over division, you did this. Let's do it again soon. In Alabama on Dec. 12, then in all 50 states in 2018!". Twitter.com. Retrieved November 12, 2017.<templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
  237. Dean, Howard. "DONT GIVE UP IN ALABAMA!!! If we win, we have a shot at the Senate in 2018". Twitter.com. Retrieved November 12, 2017.<templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
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External links

Official campaign websites

Official Sample Ballot