Newfoundland and Labrador general election, 2015

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Newfoundland and Labrador general election, 2015
← 2011 November 30, 2015 50th →
All 40 seats in the 48th General Assembly of Newfoundland and Labrador
21 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
  First party Second party Third party
  Paul Davis2.jpg
Leader Dwight Ball Paul Davis Earle McCurdy
Party Liberal Progressive Conservative New Democratic
Leader since November 17, 2013 September 13, 2014 March 7, 2015
Leader's seat Humber - Gros Morne Topsail-Paradise ran in
St. John's West (lost)
Last election 6 seats, 19.1% 37 seats, 56.1% 5 seats, 24.6%
Seats before 16 28 3
Seats won 31 7 2
Seat change Increase15 Decrease21 Decrease1
Popular vote 114,195 60,080 24,130
Percentage 57.2% 30.1% 12.1%
Swing Increase38.1pp Decrease26.0pp Decrease12.5pp
NL2015ElectMap.png
Map of districts showing how they voted
Premier before election

Paul Davis
Progressive Conservative

 Elected Premier

Dwight Ball
Liberal

The 2015 Newfoundland and Labrador general election, formally the 49th Newfoundland and Labrador general election, elected members of the House of Assembly in the Canadian province of Newfoundland and Labrador. The Progressive Conservative Party which had formed a majority government since the 2011 election, was defeated by the Liberal Party, which won a majority in the new assembly.[1]

The election had been scheduled for October 13, 2015, under Newfoundland and Labrador's House of Assembly Act, mandating a fixed election day on the second Tuesday in October in the fourth calendar year after the previous election. However, the House of Assembly amended the act in June 2015, to delay the election until November 30, 2015, so that the election campaign would not overlap with the federal election scheduled on October 19, 2015.[2]

Following the result of the election no party with the word "Conservative" in its name formed the government in either a provincial or federal jurisdiction in Canada for the first time since 1943.[3][4]

Party leadership

Following the 2011 provincial election Liberal leader Kevin Aylward announced his resignation as leader. Aylward was unable to win a seat in the legislature and announced on October 26, 2011, he would step down once his successor was chosen.[5] On December 15, 2011, the Liberal Party announced that Dwight Ball would become Leader of the Opposition and interim Liberal leader effective January 3, 2012.[6][7] Party president Judy Morrow announced in December 2011, that the party was not likely to hold a leadership convention until sometime in 2013. On November 17, 2013 Dwight Ball was elected leader of the Liberal Party.[8]

On January 22, 2014, Kathy Dunderdale announced she was resigning as Premier of Newfoundland and Labrador and leader of the Progressive Conservative Party (PC Party) later that week and that Finance Minister Tom Marshall would replace her until the party selected a new leader.[9] On January 24, 2014, Marshall was sworn in as the province's 11th premier.[10] Marshall had indicated that he would not be seeking re-election as the member of the House of Assembly for Humber East and therefore would not contest the leadership of the Progressive Conservative Party. The party held its leadership convention on September 13, 2014 and chose Paul Davis as its leader.[11] Davis was sworn in as the 12th Premier on September 26, 2014.

Timeline

2011
2012
  • January 3, 2012: Dwight Ball becomes interim leader of the Liberal Party of Newfoundland and Labrador.[12]
  • September 13, 2012: Progressive Conservative MHA Tom Osborne announces that he has left the party and will sit as an independent.[13]
2013
2014
2015

Campaign

The Liberals consistently held a massive lead in public opinion polling throughout the campaign, with 66 per cent support among decided voters at the outset[43] and 67 per cent support in a poll released just one week before election day.[44]

Their lead was so large and so unshakable that some pundits openly speculated that the party could potentially sweep every seat in the province,[45] although others suggested that this was unlikely.[46] Numerous ridings in and around St. John's remained more competitive than provincewide polling suggested,[45] and some voters appeared to be swayed in the final days by the argument that even if they were inclined to support the Liberals, the province's democratic process would not be well-served by giving one party a clean sweep of the legislature with no opposition party to challenge them.[46]

In the final results, the Liberals did win almost every seat in most of the province, except for a single Progressive Conservative incumbent hanging on in Central Newfoundland; in St. John's, however, the New Democrats successfully retained two of the three seats they held in the city, while the Progressive Conservatives held onto almost every seat in the city's suburbs.

The largest victory in the province was won by Liberal MLA Andrew Parsons in Burgeo-La Poile, who took fully 96.5 per cent of the more than 4,000 votes cast in his riding while neither of his opponents garnered even 100 votes.[47]

Party standings

This election saw the fourth change-in-government since Newfoundland and Labrador joined confederation in 1949.

e • d Summary of the current standings of the House of Assembly of Newfoundland and Labrador
Party Leader Seats
2015 Current
Liberal Dwight Ball 31 30
Progressive Conservative Paul Davis 7 7
New Democratic Earle McCurdy 2 2
Total 40 40

Results by party

Liberal Party

The Liberal Party won 31 seats making this election their best election since 1999 when the party won 32. However in 1990, the party won 32 of 48 seats (66.7%) while in 2015 they won 31 of 40 seats (77.5%). By percentage, this is the party's best result since 1966 when the party won 39 of 42 seats (92.9%). Dwight Ball is the province's first liberal premier since Roger Grimes.

Progressive Conservative Party

With this election PC leader Paul Davis became the fourth incumbent premier to not lead his party to re-election (after Joey Smallwood in 1972, Tom Rideout in 1989 and Roger Grimes in 2003). Davis's government had also been the only provincial government where a party with the word "conservative" in the name formed the government. With 7 of 40 seats (17.5%), this is the party's worst result since 1966 when it won 3 of 42 seats.

New Democratic Party

In the 2011 election the NDP placed second in total votes and won 5 seats (a record-high for the party) however since the election 2 NDP MHAs defected to the Liberal Party. Only 2 of the 3 remaining NDP MHAs ran for re-election and these 2 MHAs were the only NDP candidates to win in this election. By percentage of seats however, this is the second-best result the provincial NDP has ever had winning 2 of 40 seats (5%).

Results by region

Party Name St. John's St. John's Metro Avalon/Burin Central Western/
Southern		 Labrador Total
Parties winning seats in the legislature:
  Progressive Conservative Seats: 0 5 1 0 1 0 7
  Popular Vote: 19.80% 54.74% 29.71%
  Liberal Seats: 5 1 6 8 7 4 31
  Popular Vote:
     New Democratic Seats: 2 0 0 0 0 0 2
     Popular Vote:

Candidates by district

Bold incumbents indicates cabinet members and party leaders are italicized. The premier's name is boldfaced and italicized.

  • All candidate names are those on the official list of confirmed candidates; names in media or on party website may differ slightly.
  • Names in boldface type represent party leaders.
  • † represents that the incumbent is not running again.
  • § represents that the incumbent was defeated for nomination.
  • ₰ represents that the incumbent ran in another district and lost the nomination
  • ‡ represents that the incumbent is running in a different district.

St. John's

Electoral District Candidates   Incumbent
  PC   Liberal   NDP   Other
Mount Scio Rhonda Churchill Herder
1,104
27.4%		 Dale Kirby
1,899
47.1%		 Sean Panting
1,030
25.5%		 Dale Kirby
St. John's North
St. John's Centre Kathie Hicks
490
10.6%		 Lynn Sullivan
1,923
41.7%		 Gerry Rogers
2,195
47.6%		 Gerry Rogers
St. John's East-Quidi Vidi Joshua Collier
478
8.1%		 Paul Antle
2,365
40.2%		 Lorraine Michael
3,035
51.6%		 George Murphy†
St. John's East
St. John's West Dan Crummell[48]
1,364
26.8%		 Siobhan Coady[48]
2,342
46.0%		 Earle McCurdy[48]
1,384
27.2%		 Dan Crummell
Virginia Waters-Pleasantville Beth Crosbie
1,826
32.5%		 Bernard Davis
2,528
45.0%		 Bob Buckingham
1,259
22.4		 Lorraine Michael‡
Signal Hill-Quidi Vidi
Waterford Valley Alison Stoodley
792
14.6%		 Tom Osborne
3,588
65.9%		 Alison Coffin
1,062
19.5%		 John Dinn
Kilbride
Merged District
Tom Osborne
St. John's South
Windsor Lake Ryan Cleary
970
20.2%		 Cathy Bennett
3,182
66.3%		 Don Rowe
647
13.5%		 Cathy Bennett
Virginia Waters

St. John's suburbs

Electoral District Candidates   Incumbent
  PC   Liberal   NDP   Other
Cape St. Francis Kevin Parsons
4,086
66.3%		 Geoff Gallant
1,613
26.2%		 Mark Gruchy
460
7.5%		 Kevin Parsons
Conception Bay South Barry Petten
2,360
47.7%		 Steve Porter
2,187
44.2%		 Jeanne Clarke
398
8.0%		 Rex Hillier‡
Mount Pearl North Steve Kent
3,120
51.5%		 Randy Simms
2,571
42.4%		 Cameron Mercer-Maillet
370
6.1%		 Steve Kent
Mount Pearl-Southlands Jim Lester
2,318
42.9%		 Paul Lane
2,559
47.4%		 Roy Locke
522
9.7%		 Paul Lane
Mount Pearl South
Conception Bay East – Bell Island David Brazil
3,463
59.2%		 Danny Dumaresque
1,582
27.1%		 Bill Kavanagh
803
13.7%		 David Brazil
Topsail-Paradise Paul Davis
3,381
58.3%		 Rex Hillier
2,137
36.9%		 Chris Bruce
281
4.8%		 Paul Davis
Topsail

Avalon Peninsula

Electoral District Candidates   Incumbent
  PC   Liberal   NDP   Other
Carbonear-Trinity-Bay de Verde Tomas Shea
529
9.1%		 Steve Crocker
4,952
85.0%		 David Coish
304
5.2%		 Ed Cole (Ind.)
38
0.7%		 Steve Crocker
Trinity-Bay de Verde
Merged District
Sam Slade§
Carbonear-Harbour Grace
Ferryland Keith Hutchings
3,093
49.8%		 Jeff Marshall
2,550
41.1%		 Mona Rossiter
564
9.1%		 Keith Hutchings
Harbour Grace-Port de Grave Glenn Littlejohn
2,289
36.3%		 Pam Parsons
3,877
61.5%		 Kathleen Burt
133
2.1%		 Glenn Littlejohn
Port de Grave
Harbour Main Curtis Buckle
1,998
34.9%		 Betty Parsley
2,253
39.4%		 Raymond Flaherty
1,381
24.2%		 Ted Noseworthy
85
1.5%		 Tom Hedderson†
Placentia-St. Mary's Judy Manning
1,751
30.5%		 Sherry Gambin-Walsh
3,789
66.0%		 Peter Beck
197
3.4%		 Felix Collins†

Eastern Newfoundland

Electoral District Candidates   Incumbent
  PC   Liberal   NDP   Other
Bonavista Glen Little
1,436
27.0%		 Neil King
3,504
65.8%		 Adrian Power
116
2.2%		 Johanna Ryan Guy (Ind.)
269
5.1%		 Glen Little
Bonavista South
Burin-Grand Bank Terence Fleming
441
8.8%		 Carol Anne Haley
3,962
79.4%		 Ambrose Penton
590
11.8%		 Darin King†
Grand Bank
Placentia West-Bellevue Calvin Peach
1,931
33.7%		 Mark Browne
3,645
63.7%		 Bobbie Warren
146
2.6%		 Calvin Peach
Bellevue
Merged District
Clyde Jackman†
Burin-Placentia West
Terra Nova Sandy Collins
2,422
42.8%		 Colin Holloway
2,476
43.7%		 Bert Blundon
763
13.5		 Sandy Collins
Terra Nova
Merged District
Ross Wiseman†
Trinity North

Central Newfoundland

Electoral District Candidates   Incumbent
  PC   Liberal   NDP   Other
Baie Verte-Green Bay Kevin Pollard
2,197
39.4%		 Brian Warr
3,130
56.1%		 Matt Howse
253
4.5%		 Kevin Pollard
Baie Verte-Springdale
Exploits Clayton Forsey
2,489
47.0%		 Jerry Dean
2,654
50.2%		 Bridget Henley
148
2.8%		 Clayton Forsey
Fogo Island-Cape Freels Eli Cross
1,387
27.6%		 Derrick Bragg
3,516
69.9%		 Rebecca Stuckey
128
2.5%		 Eli Cross
Bonavista North
Gander Ryan Menchion
351
7.5%		 John Haggie
3,151
67.7%		 Lukas Norman
1,152
24.8%		 Vacant
Fortune Bay-Cape La Hune Tracey Perry
1,830
49.1%		 Bill Carter
1,405
37.7%		 Mildred Skinner
494
13.2%		 Tracey Perry
Grand Falls-Windsor-Buchans Mark Whiffen
1,061
22.8%		 Al Hawkins
2,534
54.6%		 Meaghan Keating
141
3.0%		 Rex Barnes (Ind.)
908
19.6%		 Susan Sullivan†
Grand Falls-Windsor-Buchans
Merged District
Ray Hunter†
Grand Falls-Windsor-Green Bay South
Lewisporte-Twillingate Derrick Dalley
2,686
44.5%		 Derek Bennett
3,254
53.9%		 Hillary Bushell
99
1.6%		 Wade Verge†
Lewisporte
Merged District
Derrick Dalley
The Isles of Notre Dame

Western Newfoundland

Electoral District Candidates   Incumbent
  PC   Liberal   NDP   Other
Burgeo-La Poile Georgia Darmonkow
93
2.2%		 Andrew Parsons
3,998
96.5%		 Kelly McKeown
53
1.3%		 Andrew Parsons
Corner Brook Neville Wheaton
779
16.6%		 Gerry Byrne
3,121
66.7%		 Holly Pike
781
16.7%		 Vaughn Granter
Humber West
Merged District
Stelman Flynn§
Humber East
Humber - Gros Morne Graydon Pelley
983
16.2%		 Dwight Ball
4,610
76.0%		 Mike Goosney
474
7.8%		 Jim Bennett₰
St. Barbe
Merged District
Dwight Ball
Humber Valley
Humber-Bay of Islands Ronald Jesseau
564
10.3%		 Eddie Joyce
4,622
84.5%		 Conor Curtis
282
5.2%		 Eddie Joyce
Bay of Islands
St. Barbe-L'Anse aux Meadows Ford Mitchelmore
404
8.3%		 Chris Mitchelmore
4,359
89.3%		 Genevieve Brouillette
117
2.4%		 Chris Mitchelmore
The Straits-White Bay North
St. George's-Humber Greg Osmond
708
15.2%		 Scott Reid
3,618
77.5%		 Shane Snook
341
7.3%		 Scott Reid
St. George's-Stephenville East
Stephenville-Port au Port Tony Cornect
1,273
25.3%		 John Finn
3,262
64.8%		 Bernice Hancock
499
9.9%		 Tony Cornect
Port au Port

Labrador

Electoral District Candidates   Incumbent
  PC   Liberal   NDP   Other
Cartwright-L'Anse au Clair Jason Mackenzie
48
3.2%		 Lisa Dempster
1,405
93.0%		 Jenn Deon
57
3.8%		 Lisa Dempster
Labrador West Nick McGrath
712
21.5%		 Graham Letto
1,453
43.8%		 Ron Barron
1,152
34.7%		 Nick McGrath
Lake Melville Keith Russell
850
28.6%		 Perry Trimper
1,840
62.0%		 Arlene Michelin-Pittman
280
9.4%		 Keith Russell
Torngat Mountains Sharon Vokey
23
2.7%		 Randy Edmunds
779
92.6%		 Mark Sharkey
39
4.6%		 Randy Edmunds

Preliminary results as of 1 December 2015.[49]

MHAs not running again

Opinion polls

Polling Firm Date of Polling Link Progressive Conservative Liberal New Democratic
Forum Research November 29, 2015 [1] 31 54 15
Abacus Data November 22–24, 2015 [2] 22 64 13
Forum Research November 24, 2015 [3] 29 52 19
Corporate Research Associates November 5–22, 2015 [4] 22 67 10
MQO November 5–11, 2015 [5] 17 74 9
Forum Research November 6, 2015 [6] 21 65 13
Abacus Data October 30–November 4, 2015 [7] 19 66 15
Corporate Research Associates August 11–September 2, 2015 [8] 27 48 25
Abacus Data/VOCM June 17–21, 2015 [9] 21 53 25
Corporate Research Associates May 11–June 1, 2015 [10] 27 50 22
Corporate Research Associates February 9–March 2, 2015 [11] 31 56 13
Abacus Data February 17–25, 2015 [12] 32 57 9
Corporate Research Associates November 5–30, 2014 [13] 29 60 10
MQO October 20–25, 2014 [14] 28 62 11
Corporate Research Associates August 7–September 1, 2014 [15] 26 58 15
Abacus Data/VOCM July 28–August 1, 2014 [16] 34 48 16
Corporate Research Associates May 12–31, 2014 [17] 29 53 16
Corporate Research Associates February 11– March 4, 2014 [18] 33 53 13
Abacus Data/VOCM January 27–30, 2014 [19] 34 49 15
Corporate Research Associates November 7–30, 2013 [20] 29 52 19
MQO October 22–26, 2013 [63] 29 52 18
Corporate Research Associates August 8–31, 2013 [21] 26 41 33
Corporate Research Associates May 8–30, 2013 [22] 27 36 37
Corporate Research Associates February 11–March 8, 2013 PDF 38 22 39
MQO January 21–27, 2013 [64] 36 28 35
Corporate Research Associates November 13-December 1, 2012 [65] 46 23 31
Corporate Research Associates August 9–September 2, 2012 PDF 45 22 33
Environics Research Group June 19–29, 2012 PDF 35 26 38
Corporate Research Associates May 10–June 4, 2012 PDF 49 18 33
Corporate Research Associates February 13–29, 2012 HTML 54 18 28
Corporate Research Associates November 9–29, 2011 PDF 60 13 26
Election 2011 October 11, 2011 – 56.1 19.1 24.6

References

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  46. ↑ 46.0 46.1 "Lopsided polls should worry more than PCs, NDP". CBC News, November 12, 2015.
  47. ↑ "Knockout wins for Parsons, Crocker, Joyce". CBC News, December 1, 2015.
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