2015 Asturian regional election

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2015 Asturian regional election
← 2012 24 May 2015 2019 →
All 45 seats in the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias
23 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered 988,057 Red Arrow Down.svg0.2%
Turnout 551,192 (55.8%)
Green Arrow Up Darker.svg4.7 pp
  First party Second party Third party
  170x170px 170x170px 170x170px
Leader Javier Fernández Mercedes Fernández Emilio León
Party Asturian Socialist Federation People's Party of Asturias Podemos Asturias
Leader since 23 October 2010 14 February 2012 1 April 2015
Leader's seat Central Central Central
Last election 17 seats, 32.1% 10 seats, 21.5% Did not contest
Seats won 14 11 9
Seat change Red Arrow Down.svg3 Green Arrow Up Darker.svg1 Green Arrow Up Darker.svg9
Popular vote 143,851 117,319 103,571
Percentage 26.5% 21.6% 19.1%
Swing Red Arrow Down.svg5.6 pp Green Arrow Up Darker.svg0.8 pp New party
  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
  Gaspar Llamazares 2011 (cropped).jpg 170x170px 170x170px
Leader Gaspar Llamazares Cristina Coto Nicanor García
Party IU-IX FAC C's
Leader since 24 January 2015 21 February 2015 18 April 2015
Leader's seat Central Central Central
Last election 5 seats, 13.8% 12 seats, 24.8% Did not contest
Seats won 5 3 3
Seat change Arrow Blue Right 001.svg0 Red Arrow Down.svg9 Green Arrow Up Darker.svg3
Popular vote 64,868 44,480 38,687
Percentage 11.9% 8.2% 7.1%
Swing Red Arrow Down.svg1.9 pp Red Arrow Down.svg16.6 pp New party
350px
Constituency results map for the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias
President before election

Javier Fernández
Asturian Socialist Federation

 Elected President

Javier Fernández
Asturian Socialist Federation

The 2015 Asturian regional election was held on Sunday, 24 May 2015, to elect the 10th General Junta of the Principality of Asturias. All 45 seats in the General Junta were up for election. Because regional elections in the Principality of Asturias were mandated for the fourth Sunday of May every four years, the 2012 snap election did not alter the term of the four-year legislature starting in 2011. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in twelve other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.

Final results showed the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) with 26.5% of the vote (14 seats), the People's Party (PP) in second with 21.6% (11 seats) and newly created Podemos (Spanish for "We can") in a close third with 19.1% (9 seats). The Asturias Forum (FAC), which had ruled the community in the 2011–12 period, saw a dramatic loss of support, falling to fifth place with 8.2% and 3 seats, overcame by a stagnant United Left (IU/IX) and in a draw with up-and-coming Citizens (C's).

Socialist leader Javier Fernández was able to retain the regional government thanks to the support of United Left, after PP and FAC joined their votes against the PSOE and with Podemos supporting its own candidate.

Overview

Electoral system

The General Junta of the Principality of Asturias was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Asturias, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Asturian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[1]

Voting for the General Junta was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Asturias and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Asturians abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[2] The 45 members of the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats were allocated to constituencies, which were established as follows:

Each constituency was allocated an initial minimum of two seats, with the remaining 39 being distributed in proportion to their populations.[3]

The use of the D'Hondt method might result in a higher effective threshold, depending on the district magnitude.[4]

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[3][5]

Election date

The term of the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias expired four years after the date of its previous election. Elections to the General Junta were fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The previous ordinary election was held on 22 May 2011, setting the election date for the General Junta on Sunday, 24 May 2015.[1][3][5]

The president had the prerogative to dissolve the General Junta and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process, no nationwide election was due and some time requirements were met: namely, that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year had elapsed since a previous dissolution under this procedure. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the General Junta was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called. Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances would not alter the period to the next ordinary election, with elected deputies merely serving out what remained of their four-year terms.[1]

Background

Following the 2012 election, regional PSOE leader Javier Fernández was able to be elected as President of Asturias thanks to a confidence and supply agreement with both IU-IX and UPyD. However, in November 2013 both parties announced they were withdrawing support from the government after the PSOE voted down a proposal to reform the autonomous community's electoral law (including, among other things, a removal of the three district-division of the Principality), leaving the regional government in minority.[6][7] To prevent a parliamentary deadlock, however, the PSOE unexpectedly reached an agreement with the PP to obtain its parliamentary support to avoid political instability,[8][9][10] in what was dubbed by opponents as the duerno agreement.[11]

Incumbent Socialist Javier Fernández announced his intention to run for re-election to a second term in office, being chosen as his party's candidate without opposition.[12] Opposition leader Francisco Álvarez-Cascos announced on 12 February 2015 that he would not stand again as Asturias Forum's candidate,[13] with Cristina Coto being elected as the party's candidate and leader the following month.[14][15] Mercedes Fernández was elected as People's Party candidate for a second consecutive time,[16] while Gaspar Llamazares was proclaimed as the candidate for United Left after a primary election held on 24 January 2015.[17]

Finally, Ignacio Prendes, the only deputy of Union, Progress and Democracy, was expelled from the party and will contest as the candidate of Citizens (C's).[18] Adán Fernández will substitute him as the candidate of the party.[19]

The election will be influenced by the surge of two rising parties in opinion polls: Podemos (Spanish for We can), a left-wing party created in January 2014 to contest the 2014 European Parliament election and whose success brought it to establish itself as a fully-fledged party at the national level, and centrist Citizens (C's), whose rise in opinion polls early in 2015 and its success in the 2015 Andalusian election has brought it at the center of media attention. Emilio León will stand as Podemos' candidate after being elected in a primary election process held during the last weeks of March,[20] Citizens will also run in the election,[21] despite an early controversy resulted in the resignation of the former party's candidate Francisco Gambarte and the party staff considering whether to stand or not in the region.[22] Nicanor García will be the candidate, while Ignacio Prendes, expelled from UPyD, will be the second person in the list.[23]

On 21 April, it was confirmed that 19 parties would take part in the election.[24]

Parliamentary composition

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Further information: 9th General Junta of the Principality of Asturias

The General Junta of the Principality of Asturias was officially dissolved on 30 March 2015, after the publication of the dissolution decree in the Official Gazette of the Principality of Asturias.[25] The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the General Junta at the time of dissolution.[26]

Parliamentary composition in March 2015[27]
Groups Parties Legislators
Seats Total
Socialist Parliamentary Group PSOE 17 17
Asturias Forum Parliamentary Group FAC 12 12
People's Parliamentary Group PP 10 10
United Left Parliamentary Group IU/IX 5 5
Mixed Parliamentary Group UPyD 1 1

Opinion polls

The table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 23 seats were required for an absolute majority in the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias.

Color key:

      Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls

Results

Overall

← Summary of the 24 May 2015 General Junta of the Principality of Asturias election results →
325px
Parties and alliances Popular vote Seats
Votes  % ±pp Total +/−
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) 143,851 26.48 –5.62 14 –3
People's Party (PP) 117,319 21.59 +0.06 11 +1
We Can (Podemos) 103,571 19.06 New 9 +9
United Left of Asturias (IU/IX) 64,868 11.94 –1.83 5 ±0
Forum of Citizens (FAC) 44,480 8.19 –16.61 3 –9
Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (C's) 38,687 7.12 New 3 +3
Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) 4,358 0.80 –2.94 0 –1
Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA) 3,975 0.73 +0.44 0 ±0
Blank Seats (EB) 3,442 0.63 –0.19 0 ±0
Vox (Vox) 3,226 0.59 New 0 ±0
Equo (Equo) 1,986 0.37 –0.14 0 ±0
Andecha Astur (Andecha) 990 0.18 +0.05 0 ±0
Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain (PCPE) 888 0.16 ±0.00 0 ±0
Zero Cuts (Recortes Cero) 417 0.08 New 0 ±0
Citizens' Democratic Renewal Movement (RED) 364 0.07 New 0 ±0
Republican Social Movement (MSR) 301 0.06 +0.02 0 ±0
Asturian Renewal Union (URAS) 249 0.05 –0.04 0 ±0
Spanish Phalanx of the CNSO (FE–JONS) 59 0.01 New 0 ±0
Humanist Party (PH) 43 0.01 ±0.00 0 ±0
Blank ballots 10,271 1.89 +0.46
Total 543,345 45 ±0
Valid votes 543,345 98.58 –0.57
Invalid votes 7,847 1.42 +0.57
Votes cast / turnout 551,192 55.79 +4.64
Abstentions 436,865 44.21 –4.64
Registered voters 988,057
Sources[26][28][29][30]
Popular vote
PSOE
  
 26.48%
PP
  
 21.59%
Podemos
  
 19.06%
IU/IX
  
 11.94%
FAC
  
 8.19%
C's
  
 7.12%
Others
  
 3.74%
Blank ballots
  
 1.89%
Seats
PSOE
  
 31.11%
PP
  
 24.44%
Podemos
  
 20.00%
IU/IX
  
 11.11%
FAC
  
 6.67%
C's
  
 6.67%

Distribution by constituency

Constituency PSOE PP Podemos IU/IX FAC C's
 % S  % S  % S  % S  % S  % S
Central 24.6 9 20.4 7 20.3 7 13.1 5 7.8 3 7.9 3
Eastern 33.0 2 26.9 2 13.2 1 6.0 − 12.3 − 4.1 −
Western 35.5 3 26.6 2 14.2 1 7.7 − 8.3 − 3.3 −
Total 26.5 14 21.6 11 19.1 9 11.9 5 8.2 3 7.1 3
Sources[26][28][29][30]

Aftermath

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Further information: Second government of Javier Fernández
Investiture
Ballot → 1 July 2015 3 July 2015 21 July 2015
Required majority → 23 out of 45 Simple Simple
14 / 45
N
14 / 45
N
19 / 45
YesY
Mercedes Fernández (PP)
  • • PP (11)
  • • FAC (3) (from 3 Jul)
11 / 45
N
14 / 45
N
14 / 45
N
Emilio León (Podemos)
9 / 45
N Eliminated
Abstentions
  • • Podemos (9) (from 3 Jul)
  • • IU/IX (5) (until 3 Jul)
  • • FAC (3) (1 Jul)
  • • C's (3)
11 / 45
17 / 45
12 / 45
Absentees
0 / 45
0 / 45
0 / 45
Sources[26][31][32][33]

References

Opinion poll sources
  1. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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  10. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  11. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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  13. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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  19. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  20. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  21. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  22. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  23. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  24. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  25. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  26. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  27. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  28. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  29. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  30. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  31. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  32. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  33. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  34. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
Other
  1. ↑ 1.0 1.1 1.2 Ley Orgánica 7/1981, de 30 de diciembre, de Estatuto de Autonomía del Principado de Asturias, Organic Law No. 7 of 30 December 1981 Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Español)
  2. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  3. ↑ 3.0 3.1 3.2 Ley 14/1986, de 26 de diciembre, sobre régimen de elecciones a la Junta General del Principado de Asturias, Law No. 14 of 26 December 1986 Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Español)
  4. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  5. ↑ 5.0 5.1 Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General, Organic Law No. 5 of 19 June 1985 Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Español)
  6. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  7. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  8. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  9. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  10. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  11. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  12. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  13. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  14. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  15. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  16. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  17. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  18. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  19. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  20. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  21. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  22. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  23. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  24. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  25. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  26. ↑ 26.0 26.1 26.2 26.3 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  27. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  28. ↑ 28.0 28.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  29. ↑ 29.0 29.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  30. ↑ 30.0 30.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  31. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  32. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  33. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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