2015 Castilian-Leonese regional election

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2015 Castilian-Leonese regional election
← 2011 24 May 2015 2019 →
All 84 seats in the Cortes of Castile and León
43 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered 2,151,993 Red Arrow Down.svg0.7%
Turnout 1,391,797 (64.7%)
Red Arrow Down.svg2.8 pp
  First party Second party Third party
  Juan Vicente Herrera 2014 (cropped).jpg 170x170px 170x170px
Leader Juan Vicente Herrera Luis Tudanca Pablo Fernández
Party People's Party of Castile and León Socialist Party of Castile and León Podemos Castile and León
Leader since 16 March 2001 18 October 2014 14 February 2015
Leader's seat Burgos Burgos León
Last election 53 seats, 51.6% 29 seats, 29.7% Did not contest
Seats won 42 25 10
Seat change Red Arrow Down.svg11 Red Arrow Down.svg4 Green Arrow Up Darker.svg10
Popular vote 514,301 353,575 165,475
Percentage 37.7% 25.9% 12.1%
Swing Red Arrow Down.svg13.9 pp Red Arrow Down.svg3.7 pp New party
  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
  170x170px 170x170px 170x170px
Leader Luis Fuentes José Sarrión Luis Mariano Santos
Party C's IU–Equo UPL
Leader since 14 March 2015 15 February 2015 26 March 2015
Leader's seat Valladolid Valladolid León
Last election 0 seats, 0.3%[lower-alpha 1] 1 seat, 4.9% 1 seat, 1.9%
Seats won 5 1 1
Seat change Green Arrow Up Darker.svg5 Arrow Blue Right 001.svg0 Arrow Blue Right 001.svg0
Popular vote 139,954 56,516 19,176
Percentage 10.3% 4.1% 1.4%
Swing Green Arrow Up Darker.svg10.0 pp Red Arrow Down.svg0.8 pp Red Arrow Down.svg0.5 pp
325px
Constituency results map for the Cortes of Castile and León
President before election

Juan Vicente Herrera
People's Party of Castile and León

 Elected President

Juan Vicente Herrera
People's Party of Castile and León

The 2015 Castilian-Leonese regional election was held on Sunday, 24 May 2015, to elect the 9th Cortes of the autonomous community of Castile and León. All 84 seats in the Cortes were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in twelve other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.

The ruling People's Party (PP) sustained a sharp decline in its support, with a decrease of almost fourteen percentage points in the vote share and falling short of an overall majority for the first time since 1987. Concurrently, the opposition Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) secured its worst historical result with only 25.9% and 25 seats, whereas the Leonese People's Union (UPL) had its worst showing since 1991. Newcomers Podemos (Spanish for "We Can") and Citizens (C's) made substantial inroads, both securing over 10% of the share.

The election result forced the PP candidate and incumbent regional president Juan Vicente Herrera to secure the support of C's in order to be re-elected for a fifth term in office, which would also end up being his last.

Overview

Electoral system

The Cortes of Castile and León were the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Castile and León, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Castilian-Leonese Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[1]

Voting for the Cortes was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Castile and León and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Castilian-Leonese people abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[2] All members of the Cortes of Castile and León were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Ávila, Burgos, León, Palencia, Salamanca, Segovia, Soria, Valladolid and Zamora, with each being allocated an initial minimum of three seats, as well as one additional member per each 45,000 inhabitants or fraction greater than 22,500.[1][3]

The use of the D'Hondt method might result in a higher effective threshold, depending on the district magnitude.[4]

Election date

The term of the Cortes of Castile and León expired four years after the date of their previous election, unless they were dissolved earlier. The election decree was required to be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of Castile and León (BOCYL), with election day taking place between the fifty-fourth and sixtieth days from publication. The previous election was held on 22 May 2011, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 22 May 2015. The election decree was required to be published in the BOCYL no later than 28 April 2015, with the election taking place up to the sixtieth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Cortes on Saturday, 27 June 2015.[1][3][5]

The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Cortes of Castile and León and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or before one year had elapsed since a previous dissolution. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Cortes were to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[1]

Parliamentary composition

The Cortes of Castile and León were officially dissolved on 31 March 2015, after the publication of the dissolution decree in the Official Gazette of Castile and León.[6] The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Cortes at the time of dissolution.[7]

Parliamentary composition in March 2015
Groups Parties Legislators
Seats Total
People's Parliamentary Group PP 53 53
Socialist Parliamentary Group PSOE 29 29
Mixed Parliamentary Group IUCyL 1 2
UPL 1

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[3][5]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

Candidacy Parties and
alliances		 Leading candidate Ideology Previous result Gov. Ref.
Votes (%) Seats
PP
List
 Juan Vicente Herrera 2014 (cropped).jpg Juan Vicente Herrera Conservatism
Christian democracy		 51.55% 53 YesY [8]
[9]
PSOE
List
 50px Luis Tudanca Social democracy 29.68% 29 N [10]
[11]
IU–Equo
List
 50px José Sarrión Socialism
Communism		 4.87% 1 N [12]
UPL
List
 50px Luis Mariano Santos Regionalism
Autonomism		 1.86% 1 N [13]
C's
List
 50px Luis Fuentes Liberalism 0.26%[lower-alpha 1] 0 N [14]
Podemos
List
 50px Pablo Fernández Left-wing populism
Direct democracy
Democratic socialism		 New party N [15]
[16]

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 43 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Cortes of Castile and León.

Color key:

      Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Victory preferences

The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Victory likelihood

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Preferred President

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Junta of Castile and León.

Results

Overall

← Summary of the 24 May 2015 Cortes of Castile and León election results →
335px
Parties and alliances Popular vote Seats
Votes  % ±pp Total +/−
People's Party (PP) 514,301 37.73 –13.82 42 –11
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) 353,575 25.94 –3.74 25 –4
We Can (Podemos) 165,475 12.14 New 10 +10
Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (C's)1 139,954 10.27 +10.01 5 +5
United Left–Equo: Convergence for Castile and León (IU–Equo) 56,516 4.15 –0.72 1 ±0
Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) 19,597 1.44 –1.84 0 ±0
Leonese People's Union (UPL) 19,176 1.41 –0.45 1 ±0
Independent Candidacy–Citizens of Democratic Centre (CI–CCD)2 12,748 0.94 +0.19 0 ±0
Vox (Vox) 9,333 0.68 New 0 ±0
Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA) 7,263 0.53 +0.16 0 ±0
Coalition for El Bierzo (CB)3 5,032 0.37 +0.20 0 ±0
Castilian Party–Commoners' Land: Pact (PCAS–TC–Pacto) 4,504 0.33 –0.61 0 ±0
Let's Win the Fracking Castile and León (Ganemos al Fracking) 2,445 0.18 New 0 ±0
Zamoran Independent Electors (ADEIZA) 2,380 0.17 –0.06 0 ±0
Decide Now–Socialist Alternative (Ahora Decide–AS) 2,285 0.17 New 0 ±0
Leonese Autonomist Party–Leonesist Unity (PAL–UL) 1,963 0.14 –0.13 0 ±0
Spanish Phalanx of the CNSO (FE–JONS) 1,779 0.13 +0.02 0 ±0
Grouped Rural Citizens (CRA) 1,698 0.12 New 0 ±0
Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain (PCPE) 1,408 0.10 +0.07 0 ±0
Regionalist Party of the Leonese Country (PREPAL) 1,374 0.10 –0.04 0 ±0
Internationalist Solidarity and Self-Management (SAIn) 973 0.07 –0.02 0 ±0
Party for Freedom–With Clean Hands (PxL) 934 0.07 New 0 ±0
National Democracy (DN) 896 0.07 –0.08 0 ±0
Spanish Democratic Segovian Party (PSeDE) 874 0.06 New 0 ±0
Regionalist Democracy of Castile and León (DRCyL)4 848 0.06 –0.04 0 ±0
United Free Citizens (CILUS) 742 0.05 New 0 ±0
Regionalist Party of El Bierzo (PRB) 732 0.05 ±0.00 0 ±0
Cives (Cives) 628 0.05 New 0 ±0
Blank Seats (EB) 348 0.03 New 0 ±0
Blank ballots 33,274 2.44 –0.84
Total 1,363,055 84 ±0
Valid votes 1,363,055 97.93 –0.16
Invalid votes 28,742 2.07 +0.16
Votes cast / turnout 1,391,797 64.67 –2.83
Abstentions 760,196 35.33 +2.83
Registered voters 2,151,993
Sources[17][18][19]
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Footnotes:
Popular vote
PP
  
 37.73%
PSOE
  
 25.94%
Podemos
  
 12.14%
C's
  
 10.27%
IU–Equo
  
 4.15%
UPyD
  
 1.44%
UPL
  
 1.41%
Others
  
 4.49%
Blank ballots
  
 2.44%
Seats
PP
  
 50.00%
PSOE
  
 29.76%
Podemos
  
 11.90%
C's
  
 5.95%
IU–Equo
  
 1.19%
UPL
  
 1.19%

Distribution by constituency

Constituency PP PSOE Podemos C's IU–Equo UPL
 % S  % S  % S  % S  % S  % S
Ávila 45.3 4 22.1 2 10.1 − 11.9 1 4.0 −
Burgos 36.5 5 24.7 3 14.2 2 12.1 1 3.9 −
León 32.1 5 27.3 5 12.6 2 8.9 1 3.4 − 7.0 1
Palencia 41.0 4 29.0 2 10.8 1 9.9 − 3.9 −
Salamanca 41.5 6 25.3 3 10.8 1 13.3 1 3.0 −
Segovia 40.0 4 27.5 2 11.3 1 9.1 − 3.6 −
Soria 36.9 3 31.2 2 12.0 − 12.1 − 2.8 −
Valladolid 35.7 7 25.0 4 13.1 2 8.9 1 6.2 1
Zamora 41.3 4 25.5 2 11.0 1 7.8 − 4.3 − 0.7 −
Total 37.7 42 25.9 25 12.1 10 10.3 5 4.1 1 1.4 1
Sources[17][18][19]

Aftermath

Investiture
Juan Vicente Herrera (PP)
Ballot → 3 July 2015 3 July 2015
Required majority → 43 out of 84 N Simple YesY
Yes
  • • PP (42)
42 / 84
42 / 84
No
37 / 84
37 / 84
Abstentions
5 / 84
5 / 84
Absentees
0 / 84
0 / 84
Sources[19]

Notes

  1. ↑ 1.0 1.1 Results for UPSa–C's in the 2011 election.

References

Opinion poll sources
  1. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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  10. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  11. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  12. ↑ 12.0 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.4 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  13. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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  19. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  20. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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  26. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  27. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  28. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
Other
  1. ↑ 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 Ley Orgánica 14/2007, de 30 de noviembre, de reforma del Estatuto de Autonomía de Castilla y León, Organic Law No. 14 of 30 November 2007 Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Español)
  2. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  3. ↑ 3.0 3.1 3.2 Ley 3/1987, de 30 de marzo, Electoral de Castilla y León, Law No. 3 of 30 March 1987 Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Español)
  4. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  5. ↑ 5.0 5.1 Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General, Organic Law No. 5 of 19 June 1985 Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Español)
  6. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  7. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  8. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  9. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  10. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  11. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  12. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  13. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  14. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  15. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  16. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  17. ↑ 17.0 17.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  18. ↑ 18.0 18.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  19. ↑ 19.0 19.1 19.2 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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