2018 New Hampshire gubernatorial election
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140px County Results
Sununu: 50–60% 50–60% Kelly: 40–50% 50–60% |
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Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found. The 2018 New Hampshire gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the Governor of New Hampshire. Incumbent Republican Governor Chris Sununu won re-election to a second term.
Contents
Background
Along with Vermont, the state of New Hampshire is one of only two states where governors are elected to two-year terms. Republican Chris Sununu was elected in the 2016 election.[1]
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared
- Chris Sununu, incumbent governor[2]
Endorsements
Polling
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Hypothetical polling |
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Results
File:2018 NH GOV GOP primary.svg
Results by county:
Sununu—>90%
| Republican primary results[3] | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
| Republican | Chris Sununu | 91,025 | 98.3 | |
| Republican | Molly Kelly (write-in) | 577 | 0.6 | |
| Republican | Steve Marchand (write-in) | 160 | 0.2 | |
| Republican | Jiletta Jarvis (write-in) | 90 | 0.0 | |
| Republican | Aaron Day (write-in) | 39 | 0.0 | |
| Scattering | 692 | 0.7 | ||
| Total votes | 92,583 | 100.0 | ||
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
- Molly Kelly, former state senator[4]
- Steve Marchand, former mayor of Portsmouth and candidate for governor in 2016[5]
Declined
- Dan Feltes, state senator[6]
- Chris Pappas, Executive Councilor (running for NH-01)[7][8]
- Colin Van Ostern, former executive councilor and nominee for governor in 2016 (running for Secretary of State)[9]
- Andru Volinsky, Executive Councilor[10]
Endorsements
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mark Connolly |
Molly Kelly |
Steve Marchand |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suffolk University | April 26–30, 2018 | 401 | – | – | 21% | 19% | – | 58% |
| TargetPoint/GQR | March 8–15, 2018 | 346 | ± 5.3% | 9% | 17% | 11% | 4% | 58% |
Primary results
File:2018 NH GOV Dem primary.svg
Results by county:
Kelly—70–80%
Kelly—60–70%
| Democratic primary results[3] | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
| Democratic | Molly Kelly | 80,598 | 65.5 | |
| Democratic | Steve Marchand | 41,612 | 33.8 | |
| Democratic | Chris Sununu (write-in) | 563 | 0.5 | |
| Democratic | Jiletta Jarvis (write-in) | 17 | 0.0 | |
| Democratic | Aaron Day (write-in) | 8 | 0.0 | |
| Scattering | 167 | 0.1 | ||
| Total votes | 122,965 | 100.0 | ||
Libertarian primary
Candidates
Declared
- Aaron Day, former chair of the Free State Project[11] and independent candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016[12]
- Jilletta Jarvis, former secretary of the Libertarian Party of New Hampshire and independent candidate for governor in 2016[13][14]
Primary results
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File:2018 NH GOV Libertarian primary.svg
Results by county:
Jarvis—60–70%
Jarvis—50–60%
Jarvis—40–50%
Day—50–60%
Day—40–50%
| Libertarian Primary results[3] | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
| Libertarian | Jilletta Jarvis | 576 | 51.9 | |
| Libertarian | Aaron Day | 487 | 43.9 | |
| Libertarian | Chris Sununu (write-in) | 21 | 1.9 | |
| Libertarian | Molly Kelly (write-in) | 9 | 0.8 | |
| Libertarian | Steve Marchand (write-in) | 6 | 0.5 | |
| Scattering | 11 | 1.0 | ||
| Total votes | 1,110 | 100.0 | ||
Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found. Jarvis had campaigned actively since 2017. She was active on social media and traveled around the state to campaign. Jarvis regularly interacted with voters through live Q&A sessions over Facebook Live. Aaron Day announced his bid for governor shortly before the filing period began in June 2018. Day campaigned mostly on social media and purchased Facebook advertisements. On primary day, he sent a "meme truck" - a truck with large screens on it to display political memes - to several polling places across the state. On primary night, Jarvis and Day traded the lead several times before Jarvis began to pull ahead. The results were not declared by the Secretary of State's office until the morning of September 13, 2018, due to several outlying precincts.
On primary day, there were multiple reports of voter suppression and negligence by poll workers when voters attempted to cast a Libertarian ballot. Many voters reported that poll workers refused to give them Libertarian Party ballots. There were also reports of poll workers who encouraged Libertarian voters to vote in the Republican or Democratic primary instead. Many precincts did not adequately display Libertarian ballots alongside Republican and Democratic ballots, and some precincts only offered Libertarian ballots "on request."
The Libertarian gubernatorial primary has not yet concluded as write-ins and voting issues are being accounted for.
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[15] | Lean R | October 26, 2018 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[16] | Lean R | November 1, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[17] | Lean R | October 25, 2018 |
| RealClearPolitics[18] | Lean R | October 31, 2018 |
| Daily Kos[19] | Likely R | October 26, 2018 |
| Fox News[20][lower-alpha 1] | Lean R | October 30, 2018 |
| Politico[21] | Lean R | October 30, 2018 |
| Governing[22] | Lean R | October 30, 2018 |
| The Washington Post[23] | Lean R | November 2, 2018 |
| FiveThirtyEight[24] | Likely R | November 1, 2018 |
- Notes
- ↑ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races
Endorsements
| Molly Kelly (D) |
|---|
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| Chris Sununu (R) |
|---|
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Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Chris Sununu (R) |
Molly Kelly (D) |
Jilletta Jarvis (L) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire | November 1–4, 2018 | 630 | ± 3.9% | 46% | 46% | 2% | 0% | 6% |
| Change Research (D-NH Democratic Party) | October 27–29, 2018 | 901 | – | 47% | 46% | – | – | – |
| Emerson College | October 27–29, 2018 | 1,139 | ± 3.7% | 51% | 43% | 1% | – | 5% |
| University of New Hampshire | October 10–18, 2018 | 499 | ± 4.4% | 50% | 39% | 4% | – | 7% |
| Saint Anselm College | October 10–15, 2018 | 454 | ± 4.6% | 49% | 39% | 1% | 0% | 12% |
| Emerson College | October 10–12, 2018 | 625 | ± 4.2% | 51% | 35% | 1% | – | 14% |
| American Research Group | September 21–26, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 49% | 44% | – | 0% | 7% |
| University of New Hampshire | August 2–19, 2018 | 389 | ± 5.0% | 48% | 32% | – | 5% | 16% |
| Suffolk University | April 26–30, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 48% | 27% | 4% | – | 21% |
| University of New Hampshire | April 13–22, 2018 | 379 | ± 5.0% | 51% | 24% | 2% | 4% | 20% |
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Hypothetical polling |
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Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Chris Sununu (incumbent) | 302,764 | 52.78% | +3.94% | |
| Democratic | Molly Kelly | 262,359 | 45.74% | -0.83% | |
| Libertarian | Jilletta Jarvis | 8,197 | 1.43% | -2.88% | |
| n/a | Write-ins | 282 | 0.05% | -0.23% | |
| Total votes | 573,602 | 100.0% | N/A | ||
| Republican hold | |||||
References
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- ↑ http://sos.nh.gov/18GenResults.aspx
External links
- Official campaign websites
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