Florida's 13th congressional district special election, 2014

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Florida's 13th congressional district special election, 2014
← 2012 March 11, 2014 2014 →
Florida's 13th congressional district
  David Jolly.jpg Alex Sink.png
Nominee David Jolly Alex Sink
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 89,099 85,642
Percentage 48.4% 46.6%
U.S. Representative before election

Bill Young
Republican

 Elected U.S. Representative

David Jolly
Republican

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A special election for Florida's 13th congressional district was held March 11, 2014, to elect a member of the United States House of Representatives, following the death of incumbent Republican Congressman Bill Young on October 18, 2013.[1] Primary elections were held on January 14, 2014.[2] Young, who had already announced that he would not be running for re-election in 2014, was re-elected in 2012 with 57 percent of the vote.[3] With 100% of the precincts reporting, David Jolly was declared the winner of the special election.

Background

On October 9, 2013, Republican Bill Young, who had held this Tampa Bay-area district since 1971, announced that he would not run for re-election to a twenty-second term in 2014. He died 9 days later and this special election was called to fill his seat. Though Young had been re-elected by wide margins, the district in recent years had become competitive. In the four most recent presidential elections, it was won by Al Gore over George W. Bush in 2000 51%-49%, by Bush with 51%-49% in 2004, by Barack Obama over John McCain 51%-47% and again carried by Obama in 2012 by a narrower 50%-49% over Mitt Romney. Some political commentators and journalists viewed this election as a possible, but not certain, bellwether for the fall 2014 elections.[4][5]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Endorsements

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Mark
Bircher		 David
Jolly		 Kathleen
Peters		 Undecided
St. Pete Polls January 9, 2014 653 ± 3.8% 26.3% 36.5% 23.9% 13.3%
Gravis Marketing January 8, 2014 976 ± 3% 25% 34% 28% 14%
St. Pete Polls December 30, 2013 488 ± 4.4% 17.7% 39.4% 27.7% 15.1%
St. Pete Polls December 18, 2013 660 ± 3.8% 16.1% 34.9% 30.2% 18.9%
St. Pete Polls December 3, 2013 534 ± 4.2% 17.2% 27.8% 27.1% 28.0%
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Rick
Baker		 Neil
Brickfield		 Larry
Crow		 Frank
Hibbard		 David
Jolly		 Kathleen
Peters		 Karen
Seel		 Other Undecided
St. Pete Polls November 18, 2013 582 ± 4.1% — — — — 39.2% 17.3% — 30.9% 12.6%
St. Pete Polls November 5, 2013 498 ± 4.4% — 16.8% — 15% 18.7% — — 28.7% 20.8%
St. Pete Polls October 15, 2013 742 ± 3.6% 51% 7% 4% — 2% — 10% 27% —

Results

Republican primary results[36]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican David Jolly 20,493 45
Republican Kathleen Peters 14,234 31
Republican Mark Bircher 11,242 24
Total votes 45,810 100

Democratic nomination

Candidates

Nominee

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Polling

General election

Candidates

One voter was confused by a website called "sinkforcongress2014" accepting donations to the National Republican Congressional Committee to defeat Sink and other Democrats, thinking it was a pro-Sink website. His $250 donation was refunded by the NRCC.[46]

Debates

David Jolly, Lucas Overby, and Alex Sink, the three candidates appearing on the ballot for the special election, took part in a televised debate on February 3, 2014. Held at the Seminole Campus of St. Petersburg College and co-hosted by the Tampa Bay Times and Bay News 9, the event aired live on C-SPAN 3. Al Ruechel, Adam Smith, and Amy Hollyfield served as moderators.[47] The debate can be viewed in its entirety here.

A non-scientific poll conducted after the debate by Bay News 9 indicated that overall viewers felt David Jolly had won with 37% of the vote, followed by Alex Sink with 33% and Lucas Overby with 30%.[48]

Campaign spending

During the campaign, the Center for Responsive Politics reported on February 13, 2014, that outside groups had spent $3.5 million on the election, with $2.6 million of that from groups that support Jolly. This makes it the most expensive election of the 2014 cycle so far and one of the most expensive special congressional elections in history.[49]

The Associated Press reports that $11 million total was spent as the Democratic Party poured money into the campaign in its final weeks. In the end, Sink outspent Jolly by 3 to 1 on television ads as well as outspending him overall.[50]

Endorsements

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 David
Jolly (R)		 Alex
Sink (D)		 Lucas
Overby (L)		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling March 7–9, 2014 702 ± 3.7% 45% 48% 6% 2%
RedRacingHorses & PMI inc. February 25–27, 2014 391 ± 6% 46% 44% 5% 5%
St. Pete Polls February 25, 2014 1,269 ± 2.8% 45.6% 45.9% 6.4% 2.1%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates February 17–18, 2014 400 ± 4.9% 44% 42% — 14%
St. Pete Polls February 12, 2014 1,130 ± 2.9% 46.2% 44% 6.6% 2.4%
St. Leo University February 9–11, 2014 400 ± 5% 37% 46% 12% 5%
Braun Research February 4–9, 2014 603 ± 4% 35% 42% 4% 14%
DCCC January 24, 2014 527 ± 4.3% 45% 49% — 6%
McLaughlin & Associates January 16–19, 2014 400 ± 4.9% 43% 38% 4% 15%
St. Pete Polls January 15, 2014 1,278 ± 2.7% 47% 42.8% 4.4% 5.9%
St. Pete Polls December 3, 2013 1,128 ± 2.9% 36.3% 49% 5.6% 8.8%
St. Pete Polls November 18, 2013 1,252 ± 2.8% 34.9% 49.3% — 15.7%
St. Pete Polls November 5, 2013 1,079 ± 3% 31% 51.5% — 17.5%

Results

Florida's 13th Congressional District special election, 2014 [61]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican David Jolly 89,099 48.43
Democratic Alex Sink 85,642 46.55
Libertarian Lucas Overby 8,893 4.83
N/A Write-ins 328 0.18
Total votes 183,962 100
Republican hold

References

  1. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  2. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  3. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  4. ↑ Kucinich, Jackie (November 22, 2013). In Fla., late Rep. Young’s purple-trending district will test waters for 2014 midterms. The Washington Post.
  5. ↑ WSJ Republican David Jolly beat his Democratic opponent Alex Sink on Tuesday in a Florida special election for Congress seen as a bellwether for this year's midterms.
    TheHill.com Lackluster candidates, millions spent, a third-party candidate: Every detail of Tuesday’s special election in Florida’s 13th District makes it unusual, but the bellwether district is still the first indication of the 2014 electoral mood.
    CNN But the contest for Florida 13 has landed smack in the middle of the national political spotlight. It's seen by some pundits as a bellwether for November's midterm elections. (written before the election, and pretty dang close to the Wikipedia usage)
    HuffPo Florida's 13th District Bellwether Report: Why Obamacare's Least Of Democrats' Worries (post-election)
    Reuters Florida election a bellwether for fall U.S. mid-term race (pre-election)
    Orlando Sentinel Republican David Jolly narrowly took the contentious and expensive special election on Tuesday to replace his former boss, the late Rep. Bill Young, in the Pinellas County seat in Congress that some believe is a bellwether for contests nationally this autumn.
    New York Magazine Whether or not it’s a bellwether, “It's now likely impossible for Democrats to pick enough seats in November to even have a chance of regaining the House of Representatives,” writes Ben Jacobs in The Daily Beast. Gaining 17 seats was always a long shot. But the fact that Obama won the 13th district twice made it one that was potentially up for grabs after the death of Bill Young, who held the seat for 40 years. The big question now is if Republicans can pick up six seats for control of the Senate in November.
    The pundits:
    “[T]hese results in the swingiest district in the swing state of Florida are a clear sign that, unless something changes, Democrats are in big trouble this fall.” —Jacobs
    “Whether or not what happened Tuesday in Florida is a bellwether of anything, it will unnerve Democrats and energize Republicans.” —Cillizza
    “The victory will embolden Republicans as they head into the midterm election and bolster their message — that the nation disapproves of the Affordable Care Act and Mr. Obama’s leadership.” —New York Times
    “Democrats had a better-funded, well-known nominee who ran a strong campaign against a little-known, second- or third-tier Republican who ran an often wobbly race … Outside Republican groups — much more so than the under-funded Jolly campaign — hung the Affordable Care Act and President Obama on Sink. It worked.” —Florida political analyst Adam C. Smith
    “[T]he Florida contest may or may not be a bellwether. But it did lay bare the Democrats' 'fix Obamacare' dilemma.” —Byron York (all from New York Magazine)
    AP After months of railing against President Barack Obama’s health care overhaul, Republicans scored a key victory in a hard-fought congressional race that had been closely watched as a bellwether of midterm elections in November.
    CBS DC The chairman also touted a key victory this week in a hard-fought Florida congressional race that is seen as a possible bellwether of November midterm election. Republican David Jolly defeated Democrat Alex Sink in a special election Tuesday that largely turned on President Barack Obama’s health care law. (considered a major player in political punditry in DC)
    Canada Free Press In a bellwether special Congressional race, a long-time aide for a long-time Congressman, a flawed (and former lobbyist) Republican David Jolly faced off against Florida’s 2010 Democratic gubernatorial candidate Alex Sink to finish out the term of recently deceased Bill Young, who had represented the district for forty-two years, the longest serving Republican in the House of Representatives.
    Sunshine State News In what was billed as a bellwether for November, Republican David Jolly defeated Democratic rival former state CFO Alex Sink by nearly 2 percentage points in a special election Tuesday to win the seat held for decades by his former boss, the late U.S. Rep. Bill Young.
    WSJ Professional political observers and journalists touted the election as a bellwether. "It's rare in politics that anything other than a presidential contest is viewed as a 'must win'--but the special election in Florida's 13th District falls into that category for Democrats," wrote Stuart Rothenberg back in January:
    A loss in the competitive March 11 contest would almost certainly be regarded by dispassionate observers as a sign that President Barack Obama could constitute an albatross around the neck of his party's nominees in November. And that could make it more difficult for Democratic candidates, campaign committees and interest groups to raise money and energize the grass roots.
    DigiNews But Young was a moderate, and his district is a swing district; both sides treated it as a bellwether.
    NY Magazine This race was a bellwether to be sure — not of what’s going to happen in November, but of the true idiocy of our political culture. A ludicrous $12 million in campaign spending was poured into this single district in which fewer than 200,000 people voted. Much of the bloviocracy hyped the race before and after as a battle akin to Ali-Frazier or, perhaps given the Florida setting, Bush vs. Gore, and as a decisive verdict on the political valence of Obamacare. And now both sides are overreading meaning into an election decided by less than 2 percent of the vote (under 4,000 votes) in a race where a third-party Libertarian candidate received almost 5 percent of the vote.
    WWSB Today's special election to replace District 13's late congressman C.W. Bill Young is being watched closely by both political parties as a possible bellwether of things to come in the 2014 midterms. (pre-election)
  6. ↑ 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.6 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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  24. ↑ 24.0 24.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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  27. ↑ 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.3 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  28. ↑ 28.0 28.1 Bob Barker says ‘the choice is right’ – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs
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  31. ↑ 31.00 31.01 31.02 31.03 31.04 31.05 31.06 31.07 31.08 31.09 31.10 31.11 31.12 31.13 31.14 31.15 31.16 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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  41. ↑ 41.00 41.01 41.02 41.03 41.04 41.05 41.06 41.07 41.08 41.09 41.10 41.11 41.12 41.13 41.14 41.15 41.16 41.17 41.18 41.19 41.20 41.21 41.22 41.23 41.24 41.25 41.26 41.27 41.28 41.29 41.30 41.31 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  42. ↑ 42.00 42.01 42.02 42.03 42.04 42.05 42.06 42.07 42.08 42.09 42.10 42.11 42.12 42.13 42.14 42.15 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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  47. ↑ Florida 13th District Debate | Video | C-SPAN.org
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  52. ↑ 52.0 52.1 Rick Scott raising money for David Jolly - SaintPetersBlog
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  55. ↑ Rand Paul Does American Crossroads Robocall to Thwart Libertarian Candidate in FL-13
  56. ↑ Marco Rubio highlights his support of David Jolly over Alex Sink | Sunshine State News
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  61. ↑ Pinellas - Election Results

External links

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