United States Senate election in Iowa, 2014

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See also: Iowa elections, 2014
United States Senate election in Iowa, 2014
← 2008 November 4, 2014 2020 →
  Joni Ernst - Official Portrait - 85th GA.jpg Bruce Braley official 110th Congress photo portrait.jpg
Nominee Joni Ernst Bruce Braley
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 588,575 494,370
Percentage 52.1% 43.8%
250px
County results
U.S. senator before election

Tom Harkin
Democratic

 Elected U.S. Senator

Joni Ernst
Republican
Elections in Iowa
Iowa-StateSeal.svg
This box:

The 2014 United States Senate election in Iowa was held on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Democratic Senator Tom Harkin did not run for re-election to a sixth term in office.[1]

U.S. Representative Bruce Braley was unopposed for the Democratic nomination; the Republicans nominated State Senator Joni Ernst in a June 3 primary election.[2] Douglas Butzier, who was the Libertarian nominee, died on October 14 in a single engine plane crash near Key West, Iowa. He was the pilot and the only person aboard the plane.[3][4][5][6] He still appeared on the ballot, alongside Independents Bob Quast, Ruth Smith and Rick Stewart.

Democratic primary

Bruce Braley ultimately faced no opposition in his primary campaign and became the Democratic nominee on June 3, 2014.[7]

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

  • Bob Quast, businessman (running as an Independent)[9]

Declined

Endorsements

Polling

Results

Democratic primary results[19]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Bruce Braley 62,623 99.2
Democratic Write-ins 504 0.8
Total votes 63,127 100

Republican primary

The Republican primary was held on June 3, 2014. If no candidate won more than 35% of the vote, the nominee would have been chosen at a statewide convention. It would have been only the second time in 50 years that a convention picked a nominee and the first time since 2002, when then-State Senator Steve King won a convention held in Iowa's 5th congressional district to decide the Republican nominee for Congress. Having the nominee chosen by a convention led to fears that the increasingly powerful Ron Paul faction of the state party, led by Party Chairman A. J. Spiker, could have nominated an unelectable candidate.[20][21]

The convention was scheduled to be held on June 14 but was then moved July 12. Republican leaders, including Governor Terry Branstad and U.S. Senator Chuck Grassley, as well as four of the candidates for the nomination, criticized the move. Candidates Sam Clovis, Joni Ernst, Matthew Whitaker and David Young signed a letter to the Republican Party of Iowa asking them to move the convention date back, saying that "Essentially gifting [Bruce] Braley an additional 30 days to campaign in a vacuum, while reducing our nominee's time to raise funds and campaign as the general election candidate by an entire month – only serves to strengthen Braley’s viability". Spiker responded that the move was necessary to accommodate the 27-day period that the Iowa Secretary of State's office requires to certify the results of the primary.[22] Spiker reiterated his position in September 2013, rejecting calls for a vote by the central committee to move the convention date. He said that nominating a candidate before the primary had been certified would break state law, "which outlines that a ballot vacancy does not exist until the canvass is completed and certified."[23]

Secretary of State Matt Schultz was highly critical of Spiker, saying that "no political party should use the excuse of the final date of the statewide canvass to determine the date of its special nominating convention. Furthermore, to state that it is necessary to hold a special nominating convention after the conclusion of the state canvass is not only misleading, it is false."[24] Following efforts by members of the central committee to call a special meeting to move the date back to June, Spiker agreed and a meeting was held on September 23.[25] The central committee voted 16-1 to move the convention date back to June 14.[26] Statewide Republican leaders and activists and members of the National Republican Senatorial Committee believe that the real reason for the attempt to delay the convention was to give the Ron Paul faction time to organize an insurgent effort to push through a candidate they support, which could have even be Spiker himself or State Party Co-chair David Fischer.[21] The infighting has been traced back to the failure of the NRSC and allies of Governor Branstad and Senator Grassley to recruit a "top-tier" candidate for the race.[21]

Ernst received widespread attention for a campaign ad she released in March 2014 where she employed a tongue-in-cheek comparison between her experience castrating pigs and her ability to cut "pork" in Congress.[27][28] Many found the ad to be humorous[29][30] and it was spoofed by late-night comedians including Jimmy Fallon and Stephen Colbert,[31][32] while some found it to be in bad taste.[33][34] Before the ad aired, Ernst had struggled in fundraising,[35][36] and two polls of the Republican primary taken in February 2014 had shown her in second place, several points behind opponent Mark Jacobs.[37][38] After it aired, a Suffolk University poll in early April showed her with a narrow lead and a Loras College poll showed her essentially tied with Jacobs.[34][39][40][41] By May, she was being described by the media as the "strong front-runner".[42]

In May 2014, Roll Call reported that the Republican primary campaign had become a proxy for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination, with Mitt Romney and Marco Rubio supporting Ernst, Rick Perry endorsing Whitaker and Rick Santorum backing Clovis.[43] Jacobs, who had no such high-profile endorsements, ran as the "outsider".[44]

Ultimately, Ernst won the primary with 56% of the vote, negating the need for a convention.

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Sam
Clovis		 Joni
Ernst		 Mark
Jacobs		 Paul
Lunde		 Scott
Schaben		 Matt
Whitaker		 Other Undecided
Des Moines Register May 27–30, 2014 400 ± 4.9% 11% 36% 18% — 2% 13% — 16%
Public Policy Polling May 15–19, 2014 303 ± ? 14% 34% 18% 2% 1% 6% — 26%
Loras College May 12–13, 2014 600 ± 4% 9.5% 30.8% 19.3% — 2.3% 7.3% — 30.7%
Harper Polling^ April 30–May 1, 2014 500 ± 4.38% 14% 33% 23% — 1% 3% — 26%
The Polling Company April 13–14, 2014 223 ± 4% 5.8% 22.5% 20.4% 0.4% 2.1% 6.7% — 42.1%
Loras College April 7–8, 2014 600 ± 4% 7.3% 18.1% 18.8% — 3.5% 4% — 48.2%
Suffolk University April 3–8, 2014 224 ± 6.55% 6.7% 25% 22.77% — 1.34% 4.02% — 40.18%
Public Policy Polling February 20–23, 2014 283 ± 5.8% 8% 13% 20% 3% 3% 11% — 42%
Hill Research Consultants* February 12–13, 2014 300 ± 4% 6% 11% 22% — — 8% 3% 50%
  • ^ Internal poll for Joni Ernst campaign
  • * Internal poll for Mark Jacobs campaign

Results

Republican primary results[19]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Joni Ernst 88,692 56.12
Republican Sam Clovis 28,434 17.99
Republican Mark Jacobs 26,582 16.82
Republican Matthew Whitaker 11,909 7.54
Republican Scott Schaben 2,270 1.44
Republican Write-ins 144 0.09
Total votes 158,031 100

General election

Debates

On August 29, Ernst and Braley announced their agreement to hold three televised debates in Davenport, Des Moines, and Sioux City, the first debate on September 28, the second on October 11, and the last on October 16.[112]

Fundraising

Candidate Raised Spent Cash on Hand
Bruce Braley (D) $9,918,362 $10,069,945 $707,302
Joni Ernst (R) $9,206,690 $7,660,912 $2,244,366

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Bruce
Braley (D)		 Joni
Ernst (R)		 Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling November 1–3, 2014 1,265 ± 2.8% 45% 48% 2%[113] 5%
46% 49% — 5%
Quinnipiac University October 28–November 2, 2014 778 ± 3.5% 47% 47% 2% 4%
Public Policy Polling October 30–31, 2014 617 ± ? 47% 48% — 5%
Iowa Poll October 28–31, 2014 701 ± 3.7% 44% 51% 1% 4%
YouGov October 25–31, 2014 1,112 ± 4.4% 43% 42% 3% 13%
Fox News October 28–30, 2014 911 ± 3% 44% 45% 4% 8%
Rasmussen Reports October 28–30, 2014 990 ± 3% 47% 48% 3% 3%
CNN/ORC October 27–30, 2014 647 LV ± 4% 47% 49% — 4%
887 RV ± 3.5% 49% 43% — 7%
Reuters/Ipsos October 23–29, 2014 1,129 ± 3.3% 45% 45% 4% 7%
Quinnipiac October 22–27, 2014 817 ± 3.4% 45% 49% 2% 5%
Loras College October 21–24, 2014 1,121 ± 2.93% 45.3% 44.2% 2.3% 8.2%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov October 16–23, 2014 2,322 ± 3% 44% 44% 1% 11%
NBC News/Marist October 18–22, 2014 772 LV ± 3.5% 46% 49% 1% 4%
1,052 RV ± 3% 46% 46% 2% 6%
Gravis Marketing October 20–21, 2014 964 ± 3% 43% 49% — 8%
Monmouth University October 18–21, 2014 423 ± 4.8% 46% 47% 5% 2%
Quinnipiac University October 15–21, 2014 964 ± 3.2% 46% 48% 3% 4%
Public Policy Polling October 15–16, 2014 714 ± ?% 48% 47% — 5%
Suffolk University October 11–14, 2014 500 ± 4.4% 43.2% 47% 2.4%[114] 7.4%
Quinnipiac University October 8–13, 2014 967 ± 3.2% 45% 47% 3% 5%
Rasmussen Reports October 8–10, 2014 957 ± 3% 45% 48% 1% 5%
Iowa Poll October 3–8, 2014 1,000 ± 3.1% 46% 47% 3% 4%
Morey Group October 4–7, 2014 1,000 ± 3.1% 39.3% 37.9% 1.6% 21.2%
Magellan October 3, 2014 1,299 ± 2.8% 40.8% 50% — 9.2%
Loras College October 1–3, 2014 600 ± 4% 42.1% 42.4% 3.7% 11.8%
NBC News/Marist September 27–October 1, 2014 778 LV ± 3.5% 44% 46% 1% 9%
1,093 RV ± 3% 45% 44% 1% 11%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner September 25–October 1, 2014 1,000 ± 2.09% 44% 45% 11%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov September 20–October 1, 2014 2,359 ± 2% 44% 43% 1% 12%
Gravis Marketing September 29–30, 2014 522 ± 4% 41% 50% — 10%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner September 25–30, 2014 800 ± 3.46% 47% 46% — 7%
Public Policy Polling September 25–28, 2014 1,192 ± 2.8% 42% 44% 4%[115] 10%
43% 45% — 12%
Harstad Research September 21–25, 2014 809 ± ? 42% 42% — 16%
Iowa Poll September 21–24, 2014 546 ± 4.2% 38% 44% 6%[116] 12%
Rasmussen Reports September 17–18, 2014 750 ± 4% 43% 43% 4% 14%
Fox News September 14–16, 2014 600 ± 4% 41% 41% 6% 12%
Quinnipiac University September 10–15, 2014 1,167 ± 2.9% 44% 50% 1% 4%
CNN/ORC September 8–10, 2014 608 LV ± 4% 49% 48% 1% 2%
904 RV ± 3.5% 50% 42% — 7%
Loras College September 2–5, 2014 1,200 ± 2.82% 45.3% 40.5% — 14.2%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov August 18–September 2, 2014 1,764 ± 3% 44% 42% 2% 13%
Public Policy Polling August 28–30, 2014 816 ± 3.4% 43% 45% — 12%
Suffolk August 23–26, 2014 500 ± 4% 40.2% 40% 4.8%[117] 15%
Public Policy Polling August 22–24, 2014 915 ± 3.2% 41% 40% 5%[118] 14%
42% 42% — 16%
Rasmussen Reports August 11–12, 2014 750 ± 4% 43% 43% 6% 8%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov July 5–24, 2014 2,056 ± 2.7% 45% 46% 2% 8%
Gravis Marketing July 17–18, 2014 1,179 ± 3% 44% 43% — 13%
NBC News/Marist July 7–13, 2014 1,599 ± 2.5% 43% 43% 1% 14%
Quinnipiac University June 12–16, 2014 1,277 ± 2.7% 44% 40% — 16%
Vox Populi Polling June 4–5, 2014 665 ± 3.8% 44% 49% — 7%
Loras College June 4–5, 2014 600 ± 4% 41.7% 48% — 10.3%
Rasmussen Reports June 4–5, 2014 750 ± 4% 44% 45% 3% 9%
Public Policy Polling May 15–19, 2014 914 ± 3.3% 45% 39% — 16%
Hickman Analytics April 24–30 500 ± 4.4% 44% 40% — 16%
Suffolk University April 3–8, 2014 800 ± 3.5% 37.63% 29.75% — 32.63%
Rasmussen Reports March 24–25, 2014 750 ± 4% 40% 37% — 23%
Quinnipiac University March 5–10, 2014 1,411 ± 2.6% 42% 29% 1% 27%
Public Policy Polling February 20–23, 2014 869 ± 3.3% 41% 35% — 23%
Quinnipiac University December 10–15, 2013 1,617 ± 2.4% 44% 38% 1% 17%
Harper Polling November 23–24, 2013 985 ± 3.12% 41.91% 35.96% — 22.12%
Public Policy Polling July 5–7, 2013 668 ± 3.8% 45% 33% — 22%

Results

2014 Iowa U.S. Senator general election[119]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Joni Ernst 588,575 52.1 +14.84
Democratic Bruce Braley 494,370 43.8 -18.86
Independent Rick Stewart 26,815 2.4 +2.4
Libertarian Douglas Butzier 8,232 0.7 +0.7
Independent Bob Quast 5,873 0.5 +0.5
Independent Ruth Smith 4,724 0.4 +0.4
Other Write-Ins 1,111 0.1 +0.02
Majority 94,205 8.3
Turnout 1,129,700
Republican gain from Democratic Swing

See also

References

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  19. ↑ 19.0 19.1 Iowa Election Results
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  111. ↑ 111.00 111.01 111.02 111.03 111.04 111.05 111.06 111.07 111.08 111.09 111.10 111.11 111.12 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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  113. ↑ Douglas Butzier (L) 1%, Bob Quatz (I) 0%, Ruth Smith (I) 0%, Rick Stewart (I) 1%
  114. ↑ Douglas Butzier (L) 0.6%, Bob Quatz (I) 0.6%, Ruth Smith (I) 0%, Rick Stewart (I) 1.2%
  115. ↑ Douglas Butzier (L) 2%, Bob Quatz (I) 1%, Ruth Smith (I) 0%, Rick Stewart (I) 1%
  116. ↑ Douglas Butzier (L) 1%, Bob Quatz (I) 0%, Ruth Smith (I) 2%, Rick Stewart (I) 2%, Other 1%
  117. ↑ Rick Stewart (I) 2.2%, Douglas Butzier (L) 1%, Ruth Smith (I) 1%, Bob Quast (I) 0.6%
  118. ↑ Douglas Butzier (L) 2%, Rick Stewart (I) 2%, Ruth Smith (I) 1%, Bob Quast (I) 0%
  119. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.

External links

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