2018 Arizona gubernatorial election

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See also: Arizona elections, 2018
2018 Arizona gubernatorial election
← 2014 November 6, 2018 2022 →
  x150px x150px
Nominee Doug Ducey David Garcia
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 1,330,863 994,341
Percentage 56.0% 41.8%
200px
County Results
Garcia:      50–60%      60–70%
Ducey:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Governor before election

Doug Ducey
Republican

 Elected Governor

Doug Ducey
Republican

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The 2018 Arizona gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the Governor of Arizona, concurrently with the election of Arizona's Class I U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

The primary was held on August 28.[1] Despite considerably closer contests in other Arizona state elections, which included Democratic gains for U.S. Senate, Secretary of State, and Superintendent of Public Instruction, incumbent Republican Governor Doug Ducey successfully won a second term, with a slightly increased majority from his 2014 win and the largest margin of victory of any statewide candidate on the ballot.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Endorsements

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Doug
Ducey		 Ken
Bennett		 Undecided
Emerson College June 21–22, 2018 305 ± 5.9% 44% 22% 35%

Results

File:2018 AZ GOV GOP primary.svg
Results by county:
  Ducey—70–80%
  Ducey—60–70%
  Ducey—50–60%
Republican primary results[30]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Doug Ducey (incumbent) 463,672 70.7
Republican Ken Bennett 191,775 29.3
Republican Robert Weber (write-in) 91 0.0
Total votes 655,538 99.98

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • Steve Farley, State Senator[33]
  • Kelly Fryer, nonprofit executive and activist[34]
  • Mirza Fareed "Fareed" Baig (write-in)[5]

Declined

Endorsements

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Steve
Farley		 Kelly
Fryer		 David
Garcia		 Undecided
OH Predictive Insights August 14–15, 2018 589 ± 4.0% 25% 7% 40% 28%
Data Orbital June 25–27, 2018 550 ± 4.2% 11% 6% 33% 49%
Emerson College June 21–22, 2018 260 ± 6.2% 13% 8% 30% 48%
Garin-Hart-Yang (D-Garcia) May 21–23, 2018 400 ± 5.0% 11% 11% 32% 46%
Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia) January 5–7, 2018 446 – 22% – 43% 36%

Results

File:2018 AZ GOV Dem primary.svg
Results by county:
  Garcia—60–70%
  Garcia—50–60%
  Garcia—40–50%
  Garcia—<40%
  Farley—40–50%
Democratic primary results[30]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic David Garcia 255,555 50.6
Democratic Steve Farley 163,072 32.3
Democratic Kelly Fryer 86,810 17.2
Democratic Mirza Fareed Baig (write-in) 44 0.0
Total votes 505,481 100.0

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Disqualified

  • Jeff Funicello, activist[51]
  • Barry Hess (write-in)[5]
  • Kevin McCormick,[5] candidate for President in 2016[52][53]

Endorsements

Green primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Results

File:2018 AZ gubernatorial Green primary.svg
Results by county:
Torres
  •   100%
  •   80–90%
  •   70–80%
  •   60–70%
Torres/Dyer tie
  •   50%
No votes
  •   No votes
Green primary results[56]
Party Candidate Votes %
Green Angel Torres (write-in) 357 76.3
Green Noah Dyer (write-in) 111 23.7
Total votes 468 100.0

Independents

Candidates

Disqualified

  • Noah Dyer, author, businessman and educator[57][58]
  • Christian R. Komor, author, psychologist, climate scientist[59]

Declined

General election

Debates

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[61] Likely R October 5, 2018
The Washington Post[62] Likely R October 16, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[63] Likely R October 17, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[64] Likely R October 12, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[65] Likely R October 11, 2018
Real Clear Politics[66] Likely R October 11, 2018
Daily Kos[67] Likely R October 5, 2018
Fox News[68][lower-alpha 1] Likely R October 12, 2018
Politico[69] Likely R October 12, 2018
Governing[70] Lean R October 2, 2018
Notes
  1. ↑ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Doug
Ducey (R)		 David
Garcia (D)		 Angel
Torres (G)		 Other Undecided
HarrisX November 3–5, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 53% 39% – – –
HarrisX November 2–4, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 55% 37% – – –
Emerson College November 1–3, 2018 758 ± 3.7% 55% 40% – – 5%
HarrisX November 1–3, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 57% 36% – – –
Research Co. November 1–3, 2018 450 ± 4.6% 54% 39% – 2% 5%
HarrisX October 31 – November 2, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 56% 37% – – –
Gravis Marketing October 24 – November 2, 2018 1,165 ± 2.9% 53% 40% – – 7%
HarrisX October 30 – November 1, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 57% 36% – – –
HarrisX October 29–31, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 54% 37% – – –
Vox Populi Polling October 27–30, 2018 677 ± 3.7% 54% 46% – – –
HarrisX October 24–30, 2018 1,400 ± 2.6% 57% 35% – – –
Fox News October 27–29, 2018 643 LV ± 3.5% 55% 37% – 2% 5%
710 RV ± 3.5% 54% 35% – 3% 7%
CNN/SSRS October 24–29, 2018 702 LV ± 4.4% 52% 45% – 0% 1%
867 RV ± 4.0% 52% 43% – 0% 3%
HighGround Public Affairs October 26–28, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 55% 35% 4% – 7%
Marist College October 23–27, 2018 506 LV ± 5.4% 54% 40% 5% <1% 2%
55% 42% – 1% 1%
793 RV ± 4.4% 54% 38% 5% <1% 3%
55% 41% – 1% 3%
YouGov October 23–26, 2018 972 ± 4.1% 52% 41% – 1% 5%
Ipsos October 17–26, 2018 799 ± 4.0% 57% 37% – 2% 3%
OH Predictive Insights October 22–23, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 57% 39% 1% – 3%
Change Research (D-Garcia) October 9–10, 2018 783 – 47% 40% – – 11%
OH Predictive Insights October 3, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 54% 37% 2% – 7%
Data Orbital October 1–3, 2018 550 ± 4.2% 52% 34% 2% 2% 9%
Fox News September 29 – October 2, 2018 716 LV ± 3.5% 55% 37% – 1% 7%
806 RV ± 3.5% 54% 35% – 2% 9%
Vox Populi Polling September 29 – October 1, 2018 702 ± 3.5% 57% 43% – – –
Suffolk University September 27–30, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 50% 38% 2% 0% 10%
Latino Decisions September 10–25, 2018 463 LV – 45% 40% – – 15%
610 RV – 41% 37% – – 19%
Emerson College September 19–21, 2018 650 ± 4.4% 42% 38% – 6% 14%
Marist College September 16–20, 2018 564 LV ± 4.7% 49% 39% 6% <1% 6%
51% 43% – <1% 5%
763 RV ± 4.2% 48% 37% 7% <1% 7%
51% 42% – 1% 6%
CNN/SSRS September 11–15, 2018 761 LV ± 4.3% 49% 46% – 0% 2%
854 RV ± 4.1% 48% 45% – 1% 4%
Ipsos September 5–14, 2018 1,016 ± 4.0% 51% 39% – 4% 7%
TargetSmart (D-ProgressNow AZ) September 8–13, 2018 800 ± 4.0% 49% 48% – 0% 3%
Fox News September 8–11, 2018 710 LV ± 3.5% 51% 40% – 1% 8%
801 RV ± 3.5% 49% 39% – 1% 10%
Gravis Marketing September 5–7, 2018 882 ± 3.3% 48% 44% – – 9%
Data Orbital September 4–6, 2018 550 ± 4.2% 49% 41% – 2%[71] 8%
Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia) August 30–31, 2018 554 ± 4.2% 44% 43% – – 13%
Gravis Marketing June 27 – July 2, 2018 925 ± 3.2% 41% 42% – – 17%
Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia) January 5–7, 2018 735 ± 4.0% 42% 43% – – 15%
Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia) June 7–8, 2017 1,020 ± 3.1% 42% 44% – – 14%

Results

Arizona gubernatorial election, 2018[72]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Doug Ducey (incumbent) 1,330,863 56.00% +2.56%
Democratic David Garcia 994,341 41.84% +0.22%
Green Angel Torres 50,962 2.14% N/A
None Patrick Masoya (write-in) 177 0.01% N/A
None Christian Komor (write-in) 66 0.00% N/A
Green Cary D. Dolego (write-in) 13 0.00% N/A
Republican Takeover Arthur Ray "RT" Arvizu (write-in) 12 0.00% N/A
Humanitarian James "MarvelMan" Gibson II (write-in) 7 0.00% N/A
Total votes 2,376,441 100.0% N/A
Republican hold

References

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  5. ↑ 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 https://apps.arizona.vote/electioninfo/elections/2018-primary-election/state/1348/3/0
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  25. ↑ 25.0 25.1 25.2 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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  29. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  30. ↑ 30.0 30.1 [1]
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  46. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  47. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  48. ↑ https://www.sierraclub.org/sites/www.sierraclub.org/files/sce/grand-canyon-chapter/election/2018%20General%20Election%20Voter%20Guide.pdf
  49. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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  55. ↑ 55.0 55.1 Candidate Search
  56. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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  59. ↑ Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named komorindependent
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  67. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  68. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  69. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  70. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  71. ↑ Barry Hess (L) with 2%
  72. ↑ https://azsos.gov/sites/default/files/2018%201203%20Signed%20Official%20Statewide%20Canvass.pdf

External links

Official campaign websites
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