2020 United States presidential election in Arizona

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Main article: 2020 United States presidential election
2020 United States presidential election in Arizona
← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →
Turnout %
  Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg 160x160px
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida Delaware
Running mate Mike Pence Kamala Harris

Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found. The 2020 United States presidential election in Arizona will be held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate.[1] Arizona voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Arizona has 11 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]

Primary elections

Canceled Republican primary

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Further information: 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries § Cancellation of state caucuses or primaries

On September 9, 2019, the Arizona Republican Party became one of several state GOP parties to officially cancel their respective primaries and caucuses.[3] Donald Trump's re-election campaign and GOP officials have cited the fact that Republicans canceled several state primaries when George H. W. Bush and George W. Bush sought a second term in 1992 and 2004, respectively; and Democrats scrapped some of their primaries when Bill Clinton and Barack Obama were seeking reelection in 1996 and 2012, respectively.[4][5] At the Arizona State Republican Convention in May 2020, the state party will formally bind all 57 of its national pledged delegates to Trump.[6]

Democratic primary

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Further information: 2020 Arizona Democratic primary

The Arizona Democratic primary took place on March 17, 2020. Former Vice President Joe Biden defeated Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and Hawaii Representative Tulsi Gabbard.

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This section is transcluded from 2020 Arizona Democratic primary. (edit | history)
2020 Arizona Democratic primary[7]
Candidate Votes  % Delegates[8]
Joe Biden 268,029 44.05 39
Bernie Sanders 200,456 32.95 28
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn†) 35,537 5.84 0
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn†) 24,868 4.09 0
Tulsi Gabbard 3,014 0.50 0
Andrew Yang (withdrawn) 1,921 0.32 0
Julian Castro (withdrawn) 754 0.12 0
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) 668 0.10 0
Roque De La Fuente III 628 0.10 0
Deval Patrick (withdrawn) 242 0.04 0
Henry Hewes 208 0.03 0
Michael A. Ellinger 184 0.03 0
Total 536,509[lower-alpha 1] 87.92%[lower-alpha 2] 67

†Candidate withdrew after early voting started.

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
Princeton Electoral Consortium[10] Likely D (flip) September 24, 2020
PredictIt[11] Tilt D (flip) September 24, 2020
The Cook Political Report[12] Lean D (flip) September 17, 2020
Inside Elections[13] Tilt D (flip) September 4, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[14] Tossup July 14, 2020
Politico[15] Tossup September 8, 2020
RCP[16] Tossup August 3, 2020
Niskanen[17] Lean D (flip) September 24, 2020
CNN[18] Lean D (flip) September 24, 2020
The Economist[19] Lean D (flip) September 2, 2020
CBS News[20] Lean D (flip) September 24, 2020
270towin[21] Tossup August 2, 2020
ABC News[22] Tossup July 31, 2020
NPR[23] Tossup August 3, 2020
NBC News[24] Lean D (flip) August 6, 2020
538[25] Lean D (flip) September 24, 2020

Polling

Graphical summary

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Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		 Dates
administered		 Dates
updated		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Other/
Undecided
[lower-alpha 3]		 Margin
270 to Win August 29 – September 11, 2020 September 12, 2020 48.8% 44.6% 6.6% Biden +4.2
Real Clear Politics August 8 – September 11, 2020 September 12, 2020 49.3% 44.5% 6.2% Biden +4.8
FiveThirtyEight until September 11, 2020 September 12, 2020 49.6% 44.6% 5.8% Biden +5.0
Average 49.2% 44.6% 6.2% Biden +4.6

2020 polls

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 4]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Jo
Jorgensen
Libertarian		 Howie
Hawkins
Green		 Other Undecided
Change Research/CNBC Sep 18–20 262 (LV) – 43% 49% - - – –
ABC/Washington Post Sep 15–20 579 (LV) ± 4.5% 49% 48% - - 2%[lower-alpha 5] 1%
Ipsos/Reuters Sep 11–17 565 (LV) ± 4.7% 46% 47% - - 2%[lower-alpha 6] 5%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Sep 12–16 855 (LV) ± 3.35% 42% 47% 1% 0% 1%[lower-alpha 7] 8%
Monmouth University Sep 11–15 420 (RV) ± 4.8% 44% 48% 4% - 1%[lower-alpha 8] 3%
420 (LV) 46%[lower-alpha 9] 48% - - 3% 3%
47%[lower-alpha 10] 47% - - 3% 3%
Siena College/NYT Upshot Sep 10–15 653 (LV) ± 4.1% 40% 49% 4% - 1%[lower-alpha 11] 6%[lower-alpha 12]
Kaiser Family Foundation/Cook Political Report Aug 29 – Sep 13 1,298 (RV) ± 3% 40% 45% - - 4%[lower-alpha 13] 11%
Gravis Marketing Sep 10–11 684 (LV) ± 3.8% 48% 50% - - – 2%
YouGov/CBS Sep 9–11 1,106 (LV) ± 3.9% 44% 47% - - 3%[lower-alpha 14] 6%
OH Predictive Insights Sep 8–10 600 (LV) ± 4% 42% 52% - - – 5%
Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group/AARP Aug 28 – Sep 8 1,600 (LV) ± 2.5% 47% 48% - - – –
Morning Consult Aug 29 – Sep 7 901 (LV) ± (2%-4%) 46%[lower-alpha 15] 49% - - – –
Change Research/CNBC Sep 4–6 470 (LV) – 45% 49% - - 6%[lower-alpha 16] –
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Aug 30 – Sep 4 830 (LV) ± 3.4% 43% 48% 0% 1% 0%[lower-alpha 17] 6%
FOX News Aug 29 – Sep 1 772 (LV) ± 3.5% 40% 49% 3% - 1%[lower-alpha 18] 6%
858 (RV) ± 3.0% 39% 49% 3% - 3%[lower-alpha 19] 6%
Morning Consult Aug 21–30 943 (LV) ± 3.0% 42% Template:Party shading/Democrat|52% - - – –
Change Research/CNBC Aug 21–23 344 (LV) – 47% Template:Party shading/Democrat|49% - - – –
Redfield and Wilton Strategies Aug 16–18 856 (LV) ± 3.4% 38% Template:Party shading/Democrat|47% 1% 1% 3%[lower-alpha 20] 10%
Morning Consult Aug 7–16 947 (LV) ± (2%–4%) 47% 45% - - – –
Emerson College Aug 8–10 661 (LV) ± 3.8% 47%[lower-alpha 21] Template:Party shading/Democrat|53% - - – –
Change Research/CNBC Aug 7–9 428 (LV) – 44% Template:Party shading/Democrat|45% - - – –
Trafalgar Group Aug 5–8 1,013 (LV) ± 2.9% 46% 45% 3% - 1%[lower-alpha 22] 4%
OH Predictive Insights Aug 3–4 603 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 49% - - – –
OnMessage Inc./Heritage Action[upper-alpha 1] Aug 2–4 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 51% 48% - - – 2%
Data for Progress Jul 24 – Aug 2 1,215 (LV) – 44% Template:Party shading/Democrat|47% - - – 8%
43% Template:Party shading/Democrat|45% 2% 1% - 10%
Change Research/CNBC[1] Jul 24–26 365 (LV) – 45% 47% - - – –
Morning Consult Jul 17–26 908 (LV) ± 3.3% 42% 49% - - – –
CNN/SSRS Jul 18–24 873 (RV) ± 3.8% 45% 49% - - 4%[lower-alpha 23] 2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Jul 19–23 858 (RV) – 38% 46% 2% 1% 3%[lower-alpha 24] 11%
NBC News/Marist College Jul 14–22 826 (RV) ± 4.1% 45% 50% - - 1% 3%
Public Policy Polling/AFSCME[upper-alpha 2] Jul 17–18 960 (RV) – 45% 49% - - – 6%
Spry Strategies/American Principles Project[upper-alpha 3] Jul 11–16 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 45% 49% - - – 6%
Change Research/CNBC Jul 10–12 345 (LV) – 45% 51% - - – –
YouGov/CBS Jul 7–10 1,087 (LV) ± 3.8% 46% 46% - - 4%[lower-alpha 25] 4%
OH Predictive Insights Jul 6–7 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 49% - - 0%[lower-alpha 26] 7%
Data Orbital Jun 27–29 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 47% - - 3.3%[lower-alpha 27] 4.2%
Change Research/CNBC Jun 26–28 311 (LV)[lower-alpha 28] – 44% 51% - - – –
Gravis Marketing/OANN Jun 27 527 (LV) ± 4.3% 49% 45% - - – 7%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Jun 14–17 865 (LV) ± 3.3% 39% 43% 2% 1% 2%[lower-alpha 29] 13%
NYT Upshot/Siena College Jun 8–16 650 (RV) ± 4.3% 41% 48% - - 4%[lower-alpha 30] 8%
Civiqs/Daily Kos Jun 13–15 1,368 (RV) ± 2.9% 45% 49% - - 5%[lower-alpha 31] 1%
Change Research/CNBC Jun 12–14 201 (LV)[lower-alpha 32] – 44% 45% - - 5%[lower-alpha 33] –
FOX News May 30 – Jun 2 1,002 (RV) ± 3% 42% 46% - - 6%[lower-alpha 34] 5%
Change Research/CNBC May 29–31 329 (LV)[lower-alpha 35] – 45% 44% - - 9% 2%
Morning Consult May 17-26 784 (LV) – 47% 45% - - – –
HighGround Inc. May 18–22 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 45% 47% - - 4%[lower-alpha 36] 4%[lower-alpha 37]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies May 10–14 946 (LV) ± 3.2% 41% 45% - - 3%[lower-alpha 38] 10%
OH Predictive Insights May 9–11 600 (LV) ± 4% 43% 50% - - 1%[lower-alpha 39] 6%
GBAO Strategies/PLUS Paid Family Leave Apr 13–16 500 (LV) – 46% 47% - - 2% 5%
OH Predictive Insights Apr 7–8 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 52% - - – –
NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist College Mar 10–15 2,523 (RV) ± 2.7% 46% 47% - - 1% 5%
Monmouth University Mar 11–14 847 (RV) ± 3.4% 43% 46% - - 2% 6%
Univision Mar 6–11 1,036 (RV) ± 3.0% 42% 50% - - – 8%
OH Predictive Insights Mar 3–4 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 49% - - – 8%
Public Policy Polling Mar 2–3 666 (V) – 46% 47% - - – 6%
Climate Nexus Feb 11–15 539 (RV) ± 4.3% 46% 42% - - – 13%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Team McSally/Politico[upper-alpha 4] Jan 22–24 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1% 50% 45% - - – 6%
Public Policy Polling Jan 2–4 760 (V) – 46% 46% - - – 8%

2019 polls

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 40]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Other Undecided
OH Predictive Insights Dec 3–4 628 (LV) ± 3.91% 46% 44% 0%[lower-alpha 41] 10%
Emerson College Oct 25–28 901 (RV) ± 3.2% 50% 50% – –
NYT Upshot/Siena College Oct 13–23 652 (LV) ± 4.4% 46% 49% – –
Bendixen & Amandi International Sep 9–12 520 (RV) ± 4.3% 43% 42% 12% 3%
OH Predictive Insights Aug 13–14 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 45% – 12%
Fabrizio Ward LLC Jul 29–31 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 50% 45% – 4%
OH Predictive Insights May 1–2 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 49% – 7%
OH Predictive Insights Feb 12–13 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 46% – 7%
Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 4]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Michael
Bloomberg (D)		 Other Undecided
Climate Nexus Feb 11–15, 2020 539 (RV) ± 4.3% 44% 45% – 11%
OH Predictive Insights Dec 3–4, 2019 628 (LV) ± 3.91% 47% 40% 0%[lower-alpha 42] 10%

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 4]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Pete
Buttigieg (D)		 Other Undecided
Climate Nexus Feb 11–15, 2020 539 (RV) ± 4.3% 44% 44% – 12%
Public Policy Polling Jan 2–4, 2020 760 (V) – 47% 44% – 9%
OH Predictive Insights Dec 3–4, 2019 628 (LV) ± 3.91% 45% 43% 0%[lower-alpha 43] 12%
OH Predictive Insights Aug 13–14, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 38% – 18%
OH Predictive Insights May 1–2, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 37% – 16%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Kamala
Harris (D)		 Other Undecided
Bendixen & Amandi International Sep 9–12, 2019 520 (RV) ± 4.3% 42% 38% 17% 1%
OH Predictive Insights Aug 13–14, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 36% – 18%
OH Predictive Insights May 1–2, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 39% – 13%
OH Predictive Insights Feb 12–13, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 40% – 11%

Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 4]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Amy
Klobuchar (D)		 Undecided
Climate Nexus Feb 11–15, 2020 539 (RV) ± 4.3% 46% 39% 15%

Donald Trump vs. Beto O'Rourke

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 4]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Beto
O'Rourke (D)		 Undecided
OH Predictive Insights May 1–2, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 40% 14%

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 4]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Bernie
Sanders (D)		 Other Undecided
NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist College Mar 10–15, 2020 2,523 (RV) ± 2.7% 48% 45% 2% 6%
Monmouth University Mar 11–14, 2020 847 (RV) ± 3.4% 44% 43% 4% 6%
Univision Mar 6–11, 2020 1,036 (RV) ± 3.0% 43% 48% – 10%
OH Predictive Insights Mar 3–4, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 38% – 16%
Public Policy Polling Mar 2–3, 2020 666 (V) – 47% 46% – 7%
Climate Nexus Feb 11–15, 2020 539 (RV) ± 4.3% 46% 44% – 10%
Public Policy Polling Jan 2–4, 2020 760 (V) – 47% 46% – 7%
OH Predictive Insights Dec 3–4, 2019 628 (LV) ± 3.91% 47% 34% 1%[lower-alpha 44] 18%
Emerson College Oct 25–28, 2019 901 (RV) ± 3.2% 51% 49% – –
NYT Upshot/Siena College Oct 13–23, 2019 652 (LV) ± 4.4% 49% 45% – –
Bendixen & Amandi International Sep 9–12, 2019 520 (RV) ± 4.3% 45% 37% 15% 1%
OH Predictive Insights Aug 13–14, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 34% – 22%
OH Predictive Insights May 1–2, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 37% – 16%
OH Predictive Insights Feb 12–13, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 37% – 13%

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 4]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Elizabeth
Warren (D)		 Other Undecided
Climate Nexus Feb 11–15, 2020 539 (RV) ± 4.3% 47% 40% – 14%
Public Policy Polling Jan 2–4, 2020 760 (V) – 47% 45% – 9%
OH Predictive Insights Dec 3–4, 2019 628 (LV) ± 3.91% 47% 41% 1%[lower-alpha 45] 12%
Emerson College Oct 25–28, 2019 901 (RV) ± 3.2% 50% 50% – –
NYT Upshot/Siena College Oct 13–23, 2019 652 (LV) ± 4.4% 46% 47% – –
Bendixen & Amandi International Sep 9–12, 2019 520 (RV) ± 4.3% 42% 42% 10% 3%
OH Predictive Insights Aug 13–14, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 43% – 13%
OH Predictive Insights May 1–2, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 42% – 11%
OH Predictive Insights Feb 12–13, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 38% – 12%
Hypothetical polling

Donald Trump vs. Generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 4]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Generic
Democrat		 Undecided
Univision Mar 6–11, 2020 1,036 (RV) ± 3.0% 41% 51% 7%
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 5] Jan 24–25, 2019 682 (V) ± 3.8% 46% 50% 4%

Results

2020 United States presidential election in Arizona[26]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Donald Trump and Mike Pence (incumbent)
Democratic Joe Biden and Kamala Harris
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen and Spike Cohen
Total votes

See also

Notes

Partisan clients
  1. ↑ Heritage Action is the sister organisation of the Heritage Foundation, which exclusively endorses Republican candidates
  2. ↑ AFSCME endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
  3. ↑ This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501(c)(4) organization that supports the Republican Party.
  4. ↑ Poll sponsored by the McSally campaign
  5. ↑ Poll sponsored by 314 Action
Voter samples and additional candidates
  1. ↑ Total of candidates officially reported, of 613,355 ballots cast.
  2. ↑ Percentages reported by the Arizona Secretary of State do not add up to 100. This may be due to the fact that candidates who formally withdrew (Bennet, Bloomberg, Booker, Delaney, Klobuchar, and Steyer[9]) do not have their vote totals officially reported.[7]
  3. ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  4. ↑ 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  5. ↑ "Neither" with 2%; "other" with 0%; would not vote with no voters
  6. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
  7. ↑ "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
  8. ↑ "No one" with 1%; "Other candidate" with 0%
  9. ↑ With a likely voter turnout model featuring higher turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  10. ↑ With a likely voter turnout model featuring lower turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  11. ↑ "Someone else" with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  12. ↑ Includes "Refused"
  13. ↑ "Someone else" with 2%; would not vote with 1%; "Refused" with 0%
  14. ↑ "Someone else/third party" with 3%
  15. ↑ Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  16. ↑ "Other/not sure" with 6%
  17. ↑ West (B) and "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 0%
  18. ↑ "Other" with 1%
  19. ↑ "Other" with 2%; would not vote with 1%
  20. ↑ West (B) with 2%; "Another third party/write-in" with 1%
  21. ↑ Including voters who lean towards a given candidate
  22. ↑ "Another Party Candidate" with 1%
  23. ↑ "Other" with 1%; "Neither" 3%
  24. ↑ West (B) with 2%; "Another Third Party/Write-In" with 1%
  25. ↑ "Someone else/third party" with 4%; would not vote with 0%
  26. ↑ "Refused" with 0%
  27. ↑ "Other" with 3.1%; "refused" with 0.2%
  28. ↑ Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  29. ↑ "other" with 2%
  30. ↑ "Another candidate" and would not vote with 2%
  31. ↑ "Someone else" with 5%
  32. ↑ Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  33. ↑ "Libertarian Party candidate/Green Party candidate" with 5%
  34. ↑ "Other" with 5%; would not vote with 1%
  35. ↑ Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  36. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 4.3%
  37. ↑ Includes "refused"
  38. ↑ "Third party/write-in" with 3%
  39. ↑ "Refused" with 1%
  40. ↑ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  41. ↑ Refused with 0%
  42. ↑ Refused with 0%
  43. ↑ Refused with 0%
  44. ↑ Refused with 1%
  45. ↑ Refused with 1%

References

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  16. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  17. ↑ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
  18. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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