United States presidential election in New Mexico, 2008

Main article: United States presidential election, 2008

United States presidential election in New Mexico, 2008

November 4, 2008

Nominee Barack Obama John McCain Party Democratic Republican Home state Illinois Arizona Running mate Joe Biden Sarah Palin Electoral vote 5 0 Popular vote 472,422 346,832 Percentage 56.91% 41.78%

350px County Results   Obama—80-90%   Obama—70-80%   Obama—60-70%   Obama—50-60%   McCain—50-60%   McCain—60-70%   McCain—70-80%

President before election George W. Bush Republican Elected President Barack Obama Democratic

The 2008 United States presidential election in New Mexico took place on November 4, 2008 throughout all 50 states and D.C., which was part of the 2008 United States presidential election. Voters chose 5 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.

New Mexico was won by the Democratic nominee, Senator Barack Obama of Illinois, by a 15.13% margin of victory. Obama took 56.91% of the vote while his Republican opponent, Senator John McCain of Arizona, took 41.78%. Prior to the election, all 17 news organizations considered this a state Obama would win, or otherwise considered as a safe blue state. Due to the extremely narrow margins of victory in the past two presidential elections, it started out as a swing state, but hypothetical general election match-up polls taken in the state continued to show a big lead for Democrat Barack Obama. Obama's leads in the polls in New Mexico increased so much that Republican presidential nominee John McCain did not campaign nearly as much in the Land of Enchantment as he did elsewhere, despite it neighboring his home state of Arizona. A large Hispanic and trending Democratic population put Barack Obama over the top.

Primaries

• New Mexico Democratic primary, 2008
• New Mexico Republican primary, 2008

Campaign

Predictions

There were 17 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

1. D.C. Political Report: Democrat
2. Cook Political Report: Leaning Democrat
3. Takeaway: Solid Obama
4. Election Projection: Solid Obama
5. Electoral-vote.com: Leaning Democrat
6. Washington Post: Leaning Obama
7. Politico: Leaning Obama
8. Real Clear Politics: Leaning Obama
9. FiveThirtyEight.com: Solid Obama
10. CQ Politics: Safe Democrat
11. New York Times: Solid Democrat
12. CNN: Safe Democrat
13. NPR: Solid Obama
14. MSNBC: Solid Obama
15. Fox News: Democrat
16. Associated Press: Democrat
17. Rasmussen Reports: Safe Democrat

Polling

Main article: Statewide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2008: New Mexico

Obama won a majority of the pre-election polls taken in the state, including sweeping all them taken after September 14. The final 3 polls averaged the Democrat leading 55% to 43%.

Fundraising

John McCain raised a total of $1,016,376 in the state. Barack Obama raised $3,987,438.

Advertising and visits

Obama and his interest groups spent $4,535,378. McCain and his interest groups spent $3,606,796. The Democrat ticket visited the state 5 times to the Republican's 8 times.

Analysis

The key voting bloc in this state is Hispanics, which makes up a plurality of the state's total population with 45%. George W. Bush enjoyed good popularity with Hispanic voters and received over 40% of the Hispanic vote nationally in 2004. This support was enough for Bush to nip John Kerry by approximately 6,000 votes in New Mexico in 2004. In the previous election, New Mexico had been a very close swing state. Al Gore won the state by only 300 votes in 2000, which was even narrower than the controversial results in Florida. However, after the 2004 presidential election, support for Bush in the Hispanic community collapsed. During the 2008 election, New Mexico was regarded as an Obama-leaning state despite the fact that John McCain was from neighboring Arizona and held similar views on illegal immigration to those of Bush. Ultimately, McCain was only able to obtain 30% of the Hispanic vote.

The Republican base in New Mexico consists of the more rural southeastern part of the state which, while thinly populated, votes heavily Republican. Democrats are strongest in the state capital, Santa Fe and its close-in suburbs. The city of Albuquerque and the southwestern part of the state both lean Democratic, but not as overwhelmingly as does Santa Fe. On a larger context, Southern New Mexico is typically more Republican while Northern New Mexico is traditionally more Democratic, while Albuquerque and other areas in the center tend to swing both ways.

In 2008, Obama carried the state by a robust 15-point margin, largely by dominating the Albuquerque area. He won Bernalillo County, home to Albuquerque himself, by 21 points; Kerry had only won it by four points in 2004. While McCain dominated the southeastern part of the state, it was not nearly enough to overcome Obama's edge in the Albuquerque area.

During the same election, former Democratic U.S. Representative Tom Udall, who had represented New Mexico's 3rd Congressional District in the U.S. House of Representatives, defeated former Republican U.S. Representative Steve Pearce, who had represented New Mexico's 2nd congressional district, for an open U.S. Senate seat that was vacated by Republican Pete Domenici once it was discovered that he had brain cancer. Former Republican U.S. Representative Heather Wilson, who represented New Mexico's 1st Congressional District, vacated her seat to challenge Pearce in the GOP senatorial primary only to inevitably lose the nomination to him. As a result, all three of New Mexico's U.S. House seats were up for grabs, and Democrats captured all three of them. At the state level, Democrats increased their majorities in both houses of the New Mexico Legislature, picking up three seats in both the New Mexico House of Representatives and New Mexico Senate.

Results

United States presidential election in New Mexico, 2008
Party		Candidate	Running mate	Votes	Percentage	Electoral votes
	Democratic	Barack Obama	Joe Biden	472,422	56.91%	5
	Republican	John McCain	Sarah Palin	346,832	41.78%	0
	Independent	Ralph Nader	Matt Gonzalez	5,327	0.64%	0
	Libertarian	Bob Barr	Wayne Allyn Root	2,428	0.29%	0
	Constitution	Chuck Baldwin	Darrell Castle	1,597	0.19%	0
	Green	Cynthia McKinney	Rosa Clemente	1,552	0.19%	0
Totals				830,158	100.00%	5
Voter turnout (Voting age population)						56.4%

Results breakdown

220px

By county

County	Obama%	Obama#	McCain%	McCain#	Total
Bernalillo	60.66%	168,406	39.34%	109,212	277,618
Catron	32.07%	659	67.93%	1,396	2,055
Chaves	37.45%	8,160	62.55%	13,630	21,790
Cibola	64.91%	3,176	35.09%	1,717	4,893
Colfax	55.31%	3,465	44.69%	2,800	6,265
Curry	32.69%	4,655	67.31%	9,585	14,240
DeBaca	34.62%	358	65.38%	676	1,034
Doña Ana	58.64%	38,574	41.36%	27,211	65,785
Eddy	36.89%	7,289	63.11%	12,468	19,757
Grant	60.06%	8,092	39.94%	5,381	13,473
Guadalupe	71.47%	1,541	28.53%	615	2,156
Harding	41.76%	256	58.24%	357	613
Hidalgo	51.46%	990	48.54%	934	1,924
Lea	27.65%	5,084	72.35%	13,301	18,385
Lincoln	37.09%	3,482	62.91%	5,906	9,388
Los Alamos	53.38%	5,709	46.62%	4,986	10,695
Luna	52.65%	4,289	47.35%	3,857	8,146
McKinley	72.12%	15,993	27.88%	6,183	22,176
Mora	79.24%	2,156	20.76%	565	2,721
Otero	40.21%	8,602	59.79%	12,791	21,393
Quay	39.55%	1,546	60.45%	2,363	3,909
Rio Arriba	75.51%	11,245	24.49%	3,648	14,893
Roosevelt	34.63%	2,270	65.37%	4,285	6,555
San Juan	39.16%	17,645	60.84%	27,418	45,063
San Miguel	80.71%	10,128	19.29%	2,421	12,549
Sandoval	56.33%	32,102	43.67%	24,887	56,989
Santa Fe	77.70%	53,802	22.30%	15,443	69,245
Sierra	43.85%	2,351	56.15%	3,011	5,362
Socorro	60.66%	4,643	39.34%	3,011	7,654
Taos	82.56%	13,384	17.44%	2,827	16,211
Torrance	45.19%	3,068	54.81%	3,721	6,789
Union	28.77%	492	71.23%	1,218	1,710
Valencia	53.74%	15,142	46.26%	13,033	28,175

By congressional district

Barack Obama carried two of the state’s three congressional districts in New Mexico, while John McCain just narrowly carried the other congressional district that simultaneously elected a Democrat to the U.S. House of Representatives.

District	McCain	Obama	Representative
1st	39.64%	60.07%	Heather Wilson (110th Congress)
			Martin Heinrich (111th Congress)
2nd	49.97%	48.64%	Steve Pearce (110th Congress)
			Harry Teague (111th Congress)
3rd	37.79%	61.01%	Tom Udall (110th Congress)
			Ben R. Luján (111th Congress)

Electors

Main article: List of United States presidential electors, 2008

Technically the voters of New Mexico cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. New Mexico is allocated five electors because it has three congressional districts and two senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of five electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all five electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All five were pledged to Barack Obama and Joe Biden:

1. Brian Colon
2. Annadelle Sanchez
3. Tom Buckner
4. Christy French
5. Alvin Warren