United States presidential election in Ohio, 2008

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Main article: United States presidential election, 2008
United States presidential election in Ohio, 2008
← 2004 November 4, 2008 2012 →
  Obama portrait crop.jpg John McCain official portrait with alternative background.jpg
Nominee Barack Obama John McCain
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Illinois Arizona
Running mate Joe Biden Sarah Palin
Electoral vote 20 0
Popular vote 2,940,044 2,677,820
Percentage 51.38% 46.80%
Ohio Presidential Election Results by Shaded County, 2008.svg
County Results
  Obama—60-70%
  Obama—50-60%
  Obama—<50%
  McCain—<50%
  McCain—50-60%
  McCain—60-70%
  McCain—70-80%
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

 Elected President

Barack Obama
Democratic

Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found. The 2008 United States presidential election in Ohio took place on November 4, 2008, which was part of the 2008 United States presidential election. Voters chose 20 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.

Ohio was won by Democratic nominee Barack Obama with a 4.6% margin of victory. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered this state as a major swing state and bellwether. Both major party candidates visited the Buckeye State numerous times and campaigned throughout the state extensively trying to sway moderates and independent voters to their side. The polls in Ohio were fairly even throughout the campaign but Obama had a slight lead as Election Day drew closer. In the end, Obama flipped Ohio into the Democratic column.

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

There were 17 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

  1. D.C. Political Report: Republican[1]
  2. Cook Political Report: Toss Up[2]
  3. Takeaway: Toss Up[3]
  4. Election Projection: Leaning Obama[4]
  5. Electoral-vote.com: Leaning Democrat[5]
  6. Washington Post: Leaning Obama[6]
  7. Politico: Leaning Obama[7]
  8. Real Clear Politics: Toss Up[8]
  9. FiveThirtyEight.com: Leaning Obama[6]
  10. CQ Politics: Leaning Democrat[9]
  11. New York Times: Toss Up[10]
  12. CNN: Toss Up[11]
  13. NPR: Toss Up[6]
  14. MSNBC: Leaning McCain[6]
  15. Fox News: Toss Up[12]
  16. Associated Press: Toss Up[13]
  17. Rasmussen Reports: Toss Up[14]

Polling

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Main article: Statewide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2008: Ohio

During most of the summer and September, McCain led many state polls and many by 50% of over. Rasmussen had McCain leading with as high as 51% in September.[15] But many voters in the state changed their minds as Obama later gained a steady lead in most polls taken starting in the beginning of October (around the time of the 2008 financial crisis).[16][17]

Fundraising

Obama raised $7,218,801. McCain raised $5,682,839.[18]

Advertising and visits

A major swing state, Obama spent over $28 million to McCain's $24 million.[19] The Republican ticket visited the state 28 times to the Obama ticket's 22 times.[20]

Analysis

Going into Election 2008, both McCain and Obama knew that Ohio was a crucial state. Earlier in the primary season, Ohio had given a major comeback victory to Hillary Rodham Clinton. Both candidates campaigned heavily throughout the state in hopes for winning its 20 electoral votes. As no Republican has ever won the presidency without winning Ohio, it was seen in particular as a "must-win" state for McCain. George W. Bush's narrow wins in 2000(by 3.50 percent against Al Gore) and 2004 (2.11 percent against John Kerry) proved critical in Bush's narrow wins nationally.

On Election Day 2008, Obama won the Buckeye State's 20 electoral votes by a margin of 4.59 percent. Obama's win in heavily populated areas such as Cuyahoga County (Cleveland), Franklin County (Columbus), Lucas County (Toledo), Montgomery County (Dayton) and the traditionally Republican Hamilton County (Cincinnati) greatly contributed to his victory in the state.

McCain did best in the Republican base in the center and western regions, composed of relatively rural areas combined with Cincinnati and Columbus' heavily Republican suburbs. In addition, McCain won all but one county in the Appalachian southeast, mirroring the troubles Obama had throughout this region. On the other hand, Obama did best in the Democratic base—Cleveland (where he won almost 70% of the vote), Youngstown and the heavily unionized counties next to Pennsylvania. However, he was unable to significantly improve upon John Kerry's performance in these areas. More surprisingly, the cities of Cincinnati and Columbus gave him strong support. Cincinnati, the only major city that didn't vote for Franklin D. Roosevelt, voted Democratic for the first time since 1964. Columbus, a city shifting to the Democrats, also voted for Obama by a three-to-two margin. In addition, Obama won several northern counties along the shore of Lake Erie that John Kerry had lost in 2004.

As polls closed and results were coming in on Election Night, Republican strategist and adviser Karl Rove joined Brit Hume on Fox News offering analysis. Rove was discussing the impact an Ohio loss would have on McCain's chances of winning the election. "If he loses Ohio," Rove stated of McCain, "he goes from 286, which the Republicans carried in 2004, down to 266, and that puts him below the 270 threshold needed to win the White House. So he'd not only need to sweep the rest of these states which were won by the Republicans in 2004, he'd also need to pick up something as well." In a moment of unfortunate timing, Hume broke in. "Guess what Karl," Hume interrupted, "I've just received word that the state of Ohio has gone for Barack Obama."[21]

Results

United States presidential election in Ohio, 2008
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Democratic Barack Obama Joe Biden 2,940,044 51.38% 20
Republican John McCain Sarah Palin 2,677,820 46.80% 0
Independent Ralph Nader Matt Gonzalez 42,337 0.74% 0
Libertarian Bob Barr Wayne Allyn Root 19,917 0.35% 0
Write-ins Write-ins 13,682 0.24% 0
Constitution Chuck Baldwin Darrell Castle 12,565 0.22% 0
Green Cynthia McKinney Rosa Clemente 8,518 0.15% 0
Others Others 6,843 0.12% 0
Totals 5,721,726 100.00% 20
Voter turnout (Voting age population) 67.3%

Results breakdown

By county

County Obama% Obama# McCain% McCain# Others% Others Total
Adams 36.6% 4,170 60.7% 6,914 2.7% 304 11,388
Allen 38.8% 19,521 59.6% 29,941 1.6% 801 50,263
Ashland 37.0% 9,300 60.2% 15,158 2.8% 710 25,168
Ashtabula 55.8% 25,027 42.2% 18,949 2.0% 898 44,874
Athens 66.6% 20,722 31.3% 9,742 2.0% 634 31,098
Auglaize 28.6% 6,727 69.8% 16,395 1.5% 364 23,486
Belmont 50.3% 16,302 47.6% 15,422 2.1% 687 32,411
Brown 37.3% 7,503 60.6% 12,192 2.1% 418 20,113
Butler 38.0% 66,030 60.6% 105,340 1.4% 2,406 173,776
Carroll 46.0% 6,423 50.9% 7,097 3.1% 433 13,953
Champaign 39.1% 7,385 59.0% 11,141 1.9% 361 18,887
Clark 47.9% 31,958 50.4% 33,634 1.8% 1,178 66,770
Clermont 33.1% 31,611 65.5% 62,559 1.4% 1,310 95,480
Clinton 34.0% 6,558 64.3% 12,410 1.8% 338 19,306
Columbiana 45.1% 21,882 52.8% 25,585 2.1% 1,020 48,487
Coshocton 45.6% 7,689 51.4% 8,675 3.0% 499 16,863
Crawford 39.1% 8,288 58.2% 12,316 2.7% 569 21,173
Cuyahoga 68.9% 458,204 30.0% 199,864 1.1% 7,049 665,117
Darke 30.9% 7,964 67.0% 17,290 2.1% 539 25,793
Defiance 43.8% 8,399 54.2% 10,407 2.0% 391 19,197
Delaware 39.7% 36,653 59.3% 54,778 1.1% 988 92,419
Erie 56.1% 23,148 42.3% 17,432 1.6% 649 41,229
Fairfield 40.7% 29,250 57.8% 41,580 1.6% 1,116 71,946
Fayette 37.6% 4,401 60.7% 7,102 1.6% 191 11,694
Franklin 59.7% 334,684 39.0% 218,478 1.3% 7,129 560,291
Fulton 45.1% 9,900 53.2% 11,689 1.7% 384 21,973
Gallia 35.9% 4,777 61.9% 8,247 2.2% 294 13,318
Geauga 41.6% 21,250 56.9% 29,096 1.5% 756 51,102
Greene 40.1% 33,540 58.5% 48,936 1.3% 1,113 83,589
Guernsey 44.0% 7,625 53.1% 9,197 2.9% 503 17,325
Hamilton 53.0% 224,644 46.0% 195,107 1.0% 4,334 424,085
Hancock 37.6% 13,870 60.8% 22,420 1.6% 591 36,881
Hardin 38.2% 5,013 59.1% 7,749 2.7% 352 13,114
Harrison 47.3% 3,683 49.7% 3,872 3.0% 232 7,787
Henry 42.6% 6,320 55.5% 8,239 1.9% 281 14,840
Highland 35.7% 6,857 62.1% 11,908 2.2% 423 19,188
Hocking 48.3% 6,231 49.1% 6,326 2.6% 338 12,895
Holmes 28.3% 3,141 69.5% 7,720 2.3% 252 11,113
Huron 47.2% 12,076 50.4% 12,884 2.4% 622 25,582
Jackson 38.6% 5,397 58.7% 8,219 2.7% 377 13,993
Jefferson 49.1% 17,635 48.9% 17,559 2.1% 745 35,939
Knox 39.0% 11,014 58.9% 16,640 2.0% 577 28,231
Lake 49.6% 60,155 48.7% 59,142 1.7% 2,038 121,335
Lawrence 41.4% 11,262 56.7% 15,415 1.9% 517 27,194
Licking 41.2% 33,896 57.0% 46,886 1.8% 1,501 82,283
Logan 35.7% 7,936 62.3% 13,848 1.9% 433 22,217
Lorain 58.1% 85,276 40.2% 59,068 1.7% 2,515 146,859
Lucas 65.0% 142,852 33.5% 73,706 1.5% 3,273 219,831
Madison 37.4% 6,532 60.8% 10,603 1.8% 316 17,451
Mahoning 62.2% 79,173 35.6% 45,319 2.1% 2,711 127,203
Marion 44.4% 12,870 53.3% 15,454 2.4% 693 29,017
Medina 45.2% 40,924 53.3% 48,189 1.5% 1,338 90,451
Meigs 39.5% 4,094 58.1% 6,015 2.4% 245 10,354
Mercer 27.5% 5,853 71.0% 15,100 1.5% 318 21,271
Miami 34.8% 18,372 63.3% 33,417 1.9% 1,018 52,807
Monroe 53.1% 3,705 43.9% 3,066 3.0% 211 6,982
Montgomery 52.5% 145,997 46.3% 128,679 1.3% 3,535 278,211
Morgan 44.9% 2,966 52.1% 3,440 3.1% 202 6,608
Morrow 37.1% 6,177 60.5% 10,067 2.4% 399 16,643
Muskingum 45.4% 17,730 52.6% 20,549 2.0% 792 39,071
Noble 40.1% 2,474 55.9% 3,450 4.0% 248 6,172
Ottawa 52.2% 12,049 46.0% 10,618 1.7% 402 23,069
Paulding 42.6% 4,165 54.4% 5,317 2.9% 287 9,769
Perry 47.1% 7,261 50.1% 7,721 2.7% 422 15,404
Pickaway 38.3% 9,077 60.0% 14,228 1.8% 421 23,726
Pike 48.2% 6,033 49.3% 6,162 2.5% 311 12,506
Portage 53.5% 41,856 44.5% 34,822 2.0% 1,528 78,206
Preble 33.3% 6,999 64.6% 13,562 2.1% 441 21,002
Putnam 28.3% 5,281 70.0% 13,072 1.8% 327 18,680
Richland 42.1% 25,727 55.7% 34,034 2.2% 1,361 61,122
Ross 45.4% 14,455 52.6% 16,759 2.0% 626 31,840
Sandusky 51.4% 15,601 46.7% 14,190 1.9% 582 30,373
Scioto 45.8% 14,926 52.2% 16,994 2.0% 651 32,571
Seneca 47.7% 13,087 50.4% 13,823 2.0% 539 27,449
Shelby 30.9% 7,317 67.3% 15,924 1.8% 427 23,668
Stark 51.7% 96,990 46.3% 86,743 2.0% 3,812 187,545
Summit 57.6% 155,105 41.1% 110,499 1.3% 3,455 269,059
Trumbull 60.0% 64,145 37.6% 40,164 2.4% 2,602 106,911
Tuscarawas 50.1% 21,498 47.6% 20,454 2.3% 998 42,950
Union 35.1% 8,761 63.2% 15,744 1.7% 423 24,928
Van Wert 35.3% 5,178 62.6% 9,168 2.1% 306 14,652
Vinton 43.6% 2,463 53.5% 3,021 2.9% 162 5,646
Warren 31.4% 33,398 67.5% 71,691 1.1% 1,127 106,216
Washington 41.3% 12,368 56.9% 17,019 1.8% 545 29,932
Wayne 41.6% 21,712 56.3% 29,342 2.1% 1,088 52,142
Williams 44.4% 8,174 53.7% 9,880 1.9% 343 18,397
Wood 52.7% 34,285 45.6% 29,648 1.7% 1,090 65,023
Wyandot 40.6% 4,461 57.1% 6,270 2.2% 246 10,977

Projections based on published official or unofficial county election board results,[22] where available; otherwise, on the unofficial state board of elections results.[23]

By congressional district

Although Barack Obama won the state of Ohio, John McCain carried 10 of the state’s 18 congressional districts, including two districts held by Democratic incumbents and one district that simultaneously elected a Democrat. Obama carried 8 districts, including one district held by a Republican incumbent.

District McCain Obama Representative
1st 44.30% 54.66% Steve Chabot (110th Congress)
Steve Driehaus (111th Congress)
2nd 58.61% 40.02% Jean Schmidt
3rd 51.14% 47.39% Mike Turner
4th 59.84% 38.16% Jim Jordan
5th 52.95% 45.05% Paul E. Gillmor (110th Congress)
Bob Latta (111th Congress)
6th 50.30% 47.60% Charlie Wilson
7th 53.80% 44.57% Dave Hobson (110th Congress)
Steve Austria (111th Congress)
8th 60.38% 37.87% John Boehner
9th 36.17% 62.26% Marcy Kaptur
10th 38.98% 59.16% Dennis Kucinich
11th 14.39% 84.76% Stephanie Tubbs Jones (110th Congress)
Marcia Fudge (111th Congress)
12th 44.62% 54.15% Pat Tiberi
13th 44.62% 54.15% Betty Sutton
14th 49.35% 49.13% Steven LaTourette
15th 44.64% 53.61% Deborah Pryce (110th Congress)
Mary Jo Kilroy (111th Congress)
16th 50.32% 47.69% Ralph Regula (110th Congress)
John Boccieri (111th Congress)
17th 36.09% 61.84% Tim Ryan
18th 52.81% 44.79% Zack Space

Electors

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Main article: List of United States presidential electors, 2008

Technically the voters of Ohio cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Ohio is allocated 20 electors because it has 18 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 20 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 20 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[24] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 20 were pledged to Barack Obama and Joe Biden:[25]

  1. Catherine Barrett
  2. Barbara Tuckerman
  3. Wade Kapszukiewicz
  4. Tamela Lee
  5. Renee Cafaro
  6. Victoria Wulsin
  7. Craig Brown
  8. Jimmy Cotner
  9. Janet Carson
  10. Bruce Johnson
  11. Nannette Whaley
  12. Martha Jane Brooks
  13. Eugene Miller
  14. Fran Alberty
  15. Chris Redfern
  16. John Kosty
  17. Kelly Gillis
  18. Charleta Tavares
  19. Michael Todd
  20. Ted Strickland

References

  1. ↑ D.C.'s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries
  2. ↑ Presidential | The Cook Political Report
  3. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  4. ↑ Election Projection: 2008 Elections - Polls, Projections, Results
  5. ↑ Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily
  6. ↑ 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.3 Based on Takeaway
  7. ↑ POLITICO's 2008 Swing State Map - POLITICO.com
  8. ↑ RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map
  9. ↑ CQ Politics | CQ Presidential Election Maps, 2008
  10. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  11. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  12. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  13. ↑ roadto270
  14. ↑ Election 2008: Electoral College Update - Rasmussen Reports™
  15. ↑ http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/ohio/obama_takes_49_to_45_lead_in_ohio
  16. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  17. ↑ Election 2008 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections
  18. ↑ Presidential Campaign Finance
  19. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  20. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  21. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  22. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  23. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  24. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  25. ↑ U. S. Electoral College 2008 Election - Certificates

See also

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